Week 16 NFL Picks

Miami Dolphins (-2) over Buffalo Bills 

Miami (8-6) has a lot to play for, still in the race for the final wildcard spot; Buffalo (5-9) doesn’t.

Carolina Panthers (-3) over New Orleans Saints

The Saints (10-4) aren’t the same team away from the Superdome. I smell a touchdown win for the Panthers (10-4). This game should have been the Sunday Nighter.

Minnesota Vikings (+8.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

Minnesota (4-9-1) has kept games tight (or won) in the past month, while the Bengals (9-5) are coming off a stinker against the Steelers. Cincy prevails but doesn’t cover.

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) over Indianapolis Colts

Two consecutive strong outings from KC (11-3), and now they’re back home against a Colts team (9-5) that hasn’t been the same since losing Reggie Wayne.

Denver Broncos (-9.5) over Houston Texans

I can’t see two bad games in a row for Denver (11-3). And Houston (2-12) is terrible, already locked in to the #1 overall selection in next year’s draft. Just what Manning needs to put him back on track.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) over Tennessee Titans

Cleveland Browns (+2) over New York Jets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)  over St. Louis Rams

Toughest games to pick are the ones where neither team has anything to play for. I’ll just take the points in all three and hope for the best.

Washington Redskins (+3) over Dallas Cowboys

I just can’t take Tony Romo on the road giving points after everything we’ve seen this season. Kirk Cousins!

Detroit Lions (-8.5) over New York Giants

Statement game for the Lions. They’re still right there for the NFC North.

Seattle Seahawks (-9) over Arizona Cardinals

Seattle has been outstanding at home against good teams.

Green Bay Packers (-1) over Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pack keep it going to set up Aaron Rodgers return next week.

Oakland Raiders (+9.5) over San Diego Chargers

Too many points, too much respect for San Diego.

New England Patriots (+1) over Baltimore Ravens

The Pats are dogs two games in a row. I don’t care who’s injured, Tom Brady is still playing.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over Chicago Bears

I’m still not impressed by Chicago. Philly needs this one to get back on track.

Atlanta Falcons (+14.5) over San Francisco 49ers

This game will get out of hand quickly, but watch for the Falcons to get a couple garbage touchdowns to score a back-door cover.

Week 15 NFL Picks

Get out the ribbons, the parade floats and the marching band, I finally had a week over .500. Thanks to Josh McCown’s fantastic performance against the Cowboys, I finished with 8-7-1. Yup, it’s sad, but that’s my best week yet.

But hey, if an AFC team can grab the 2nd wilcard seed barely over .500 (which will happen), I should be happy with my latest performance. In AFC terms, I’m a playoff team.

Anyway, here’s to hoping I’ve turned a corner and am heading for brighter and bigger things. Or, most likely, this is the high point of my season.

Once again, picks are in caps, home team in italics.

Washington Redskins (+6) over Atlanta Falcons

This is a destiny pick. Kirk Cousins has only started one regular season game in his career: almost exactly one year ago (December 16th 2012) in a 38-21 win over the Cleveland Browns. He went 26 for 37 for 329 yards and two touchdowns. Not too shabby. Now he gets to go again, this time against another train-wreck of a team, the Falcons (3-10). Sure the Redskins (3-10) aren’t the same team they were last year, but you have to think he’ll be extra motivated, especially after Mike Shanahan said recently that Cousins could be traded for a first rounder.

Chicago Bears (-1) over Cleveland Browns

I had to hesitate here because I don’t like Cutler as much as McCown, so I’m almost scared to take Chicago (7-6) on the road. But then I remembered that they were playing Cleveland (4-9) who couldn’t even hold a 13 point lead with 2 minutes left in the game against the Patriots. The Bears can score, but more importantly, they still have a lot to play for; Cleveland doesn’t. Chicago should win.

Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) over Houston Texans

I’ll keep saying this again. Houston (2-11) keeps getting too much respect from Vegas. They don’t have a good quarterback, their defense is mediocre at best, and now they’ve just fired their coach. In some situations I’d go with the “fired-coach-team will be motivated”, but not when they’re 2-11 and haven’t been playing for anything relevant in almost two months. The Colts (8-5) are ready for a bounce back game after being crushed by the Bengals last week.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) Buffalo Bills

What am I missing here? I know this is Jacksonville, but the Bills (4-9) have no business being favored by 3 points on the road against anyone. The Jaguars (4-9) have actually been pretty good lately, winning three straight and 4 of their last 5. The Bills, on the other hand, have lost 5 of their last 6. Chad Henne has actually been a serviceable quarterback for the Jags; that offense has looked pretty good. I’ll gladly take the points.

New England Patriots (+2) over Miami Dolphins

Listen, the Patriots are hurting (again). Gronk is out for the season. Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins are ruled out.  Vince Wilfork and Jerrod Mayo have been out for weeks already. But this is New England, the model “next-man-up” franchise. Tom Brady doesn’t let these games slip, especially when the Patriots (10-3) have a chance to clinch the AFC East and jump over the Broncos for the top first seed in the AFC with a win. According to Pro Football Talk, the Pats have only been underdogs 7 times since 2010, going 6-1 against the spread in those games and winning outright in 5 of them. Against a mediocre Miami team (7-6)? They should be ok.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) over Minnesota Vikings

Both Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart are out for Minnesota (3-9-1), so there goes the running game, the only saving grace for the Vikings. Now they have to rely primarily on Matt Cassel (eeeewww). Meanwhile, Philadelphia (8-5) is rolling: they’ve won 5 in a row, putting up almost 32 points per game during that stretch. If you think Matt Cassel can go toe-to-toe with the Eagles in a shootout, you may need to see a doctor.

On a side note, I wish this game was outdoors, so we’d have the chance to see something like this.

So much fun.

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) over New York Giants

The Seahawks (11-2) can wrap up the division with a win here and basically lock up the top seed in the NFC. On one side, it’s Eli Manning, the league leader in interceptions (20). On the other side, it’s the league’s best defense overall (according to Football Outsiders). That’s not what you’d call a good matchup for the Giants. And now that New York (5-8) is officially eliminated from playoff contention, I can’t see them putting up much of a fight when Seattle inevitably takes a commanding lead.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) over San Francisco 49ers

Trap game! This could be one that the 49ers (9-4) overlook, but they shouldn’t. Since the start of November, the Bucs (4-9) have only lost to the Panthers and the Seahawks, the latter of which was an impressive overtime loss in Seattle (if overtime losses can be impressive). They’ve won 4 of their last 5 and have been much better with Mike Glennon under center. Glennon has a healthy 14-6 touchdown to interception ratio since the bye week, as well as a pretty good 61.6% completion percentage. I’ll go with the points, just because I think San Francisco won’t with this game handily.

Carolina Panthers (-10) over New York Jets

Carolina (9-4) finally ended its 8 game winning streak last Sunday against the Saints, but they’ve been impressive overall this year. There are two reasons why this line doesn’t scare me: (1) Geno Smith on the road, and (2) the Panthers have had several double digit wins this year, six to be exact. They’ve blown out the Giants (38-0), the Vikings (35-10), the Rams (30-15), the Bucs (31-13), the Falcons (34-10) and the Bucs again (27-6). In other words, they take care of weak opponents. The Jets (6-7) are a weak opponent, especially on the road, where they’re 1-5.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) over Oakland Raiders

There we go Kansas City. A dominating 45-10 win in the snow in Washington against (granted) a bad team reaffirmed the Chiefs relevance in the AFC. And after the Broncos were upset by the Chargers on Thursday, the AFC West is not quite locked up just yet. With a win here, Kansas City (10-3) moves into a tie with Denver for the division lead. The Broncos have the tiebreaker, but with 2 games left after, it’s not completely over. Speaking of over, the Raiders (4-9) were never really in the conversation this year and are once again playing for the draft. Just lose, baby.

St. Louis Rams (+6) over New Orleans Saints

I have a note on my Score Mobile App telling me that the Saints have only scored 18.8 points per game on the road this year (they average 26.4 ppg overall). New Orleans (10-3) is 3-3 on the road, while St. Louis (5-8) is 3-3 at home. The Saints might be able to squeak out a win, but I think they’ll have trouble getting their offense together for a while against a decent Rams defense. I see a bad performance by New Orleans overcome by a game-winning drive by Brees, but I think it’ll be within the 6 points.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) over Tennessee Titans

Hey look, the Cardinals (8-5) are still in the playoff race in mid-December! They’re just one game back of the wildcard after winning 4 of 5. I think they’re the sneaky good team of the year, anchored by a very strong defensive unit. If only you could trust Carson Palmer. But I guess you could say the same thing about Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Titans (5-8) have lost 4 of 5 with Fitzpatrick and are only 2-4 at home. Say goodbye to Tennessee’s slim playoff hopes.

Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) over Green Bay Packers

Get in your jokes about the Cowboys (7-6) defense now before I tell you that they’ve won 5 of 6 at home this year, outscoring opponents by an average of almost 9 points. See? Trends in your face. I said it last week, but it bears repeating: the Packers (6-6-1) aren’t (even close to) the same team with Aaron Rodgers (who’s been ruled out again this week). I think we’ll see the final nail on the coffin for Green Bay’s season this week.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Let’s start out by saying that this is a weak Sunday night game (especially in flex times), but the entire week is so-so as far as “sexy” matchups are concerned (especially compared to last week). That being said, these AFC North divisional games are always good battles and generally close, usually right around a field goal. I think the Bengals (9-4), who can clinch a playoff spot today, will come out strong and overpower the Steelers (5-8). Could very well be a field goal game, but with the line under 3, I’ll take Cincy.

Can I just take a moment to point out the amazing sideline karma that was Antonio Brown’s toe stepping out of bounds in that crazy ending against Miami, especially after what Mike Tomlin did the week before? Football gods are the best.

Bye-bye Pittsburgh playoff hopes. Missed it by that much.

Detroit Lions (-6) over Baltimore Ravens

It’s certainly been an up-and-down season for the Lions (7-6). They look fantastic at times, horrible at other times. But luckily for them, they’re playing a Ravens team (7-6) who’s been just as inconsistent. And where Baltimore has most trouble is on the road (1-5). Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson should have a big game against a mediocre Ravens defense. I’ll take the Lions now assuming Reggie Bush plays, but if he doesn’t, it might be too big of a line. We’ll see.

Enjoy the games.

Last week: 8-7-1

Season: 30-37-4

NHL and Rogers : The Mega-Deal

Every morning when I wake up, the first thing I do is check my phone. It’s next to my bed, charging, and I just want to make sure I’m not missing anything before I get up and get my day going.

About two weeks ago, I did exactly that. Woke up, checked my phone, looked at Twitter. And then I saw this.

Rogers Communications & @NHL announce 12-yr national broadcast/multimedia agreement on all platforms in all languages http://t.co/PVEixclRv9

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) November 26, 2013

My first emotions were, in order, shock, disbelief, and curiosity. For the rest of that day, that’s all I could think about. I watched the press conference on TV, read as many articles as I could, listened to the radio; the whole thing shook me and I needed to know everything I could. Since then, I’ve had time to calm down and think everything through. So now I can give you my thoughts on the deal, void from initial (not necessarily rational) emotion.

The deal

By now, I figure you already know the basics, so I won’t spend too long on the details. And if you want the full breakdown, there’s a good summary here on NHL.com.

So Rogers pays the NHL 5.2 billion over the next 12 years to broadcast all national games in Canada, whether they be Canadian teams or American teams playing. Rogers will broadcast national games on Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday without blackouts. If you want to watch the Canucks from Charlottetown or the Sens from Whistler, you’re more than welcome to do so.

CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada is still involved for the next 4 years, but really only as Sportsnet’s puppet; Rogers picks the game it wants to show on CBC while getting all the revenue and choosing all the editorial content, be it style, production or talent. In other words, CBC’s usefulness has been narrowed to its airwaves; Hockey Night in Canada (the brand) still survives because Rogers can use it for any of its games on Saturday night (for the next 4 years anyway). But CBC doesn’t get to make any decisions on the look or feel of its broadcast.

As for TSN, the network that has aired most national games for the past 11 years is completely shut out of the deal. All its has left is its regional deals with the Leafs, Jets and Habs; those can’t be shown nationally. The only possible way TSN could get some national games over the next 12 years is if it buys some rights from Rogers, which is very unlikely given the fierce competition between the two.

The French language rights go to TVA. Just like TSN is shut out from the deal, its sister station RDS is also shut out. Again, all RDS has left is its regional deal with the Canadiens.

Now, it looks like the NHL was partial to Rogers not only for the money involved, but also for the edge in digital technology that Rogers has over Bell. Apparently, the money offered by TSN was very close to that offered by Rogers, close enough that you’d think the NHL would’ve gone back to TSN one last time for a counter offer. (This according to Radio-Canada blogger Martin Leclerc). But the league chose not to. I can’t pretend to know what Gary Bettman was thinking, but obviously it wasn’t just about money.

What this means for Rogers 

Simply put, it’s a game-changer. This is a huge deal for Sportsnet because it now becomes (almost by default) the number one sports network in Canada. You can be loyal to TSN all you want, but if you plan to watch hockey, you’ll need to flip over to Sportsnet. All eyes will be on it for the next 12 years. Rogers will be able to show a bunch of games across all the channels it now controls (Sportsnet East, Ontario, West, Pacific, One, 360, CityTV, CBC, TVA). Rogers released a sample of what that might look like on a Saturday.

That’s 10 different games broadcast throughout the day. Plus, it seems like there’ll be a new channel (Sportsnet NHL on this grid) that “ice surfs” through all the games, kind of like the RedZone channel for the NFL (we can hope).

That’s a lot of hockey. More than anyone has ever had access to. But that means Rogers needs to step up its game. I think it’s no secret that TSN has done an outsanding job since 2002 as the national rights holder. Sportsnet doesn’t have a poor product, but in comparison, it’s not as strong. But that could change now that all the resources have been (and will continue to be) invested in its hockey broadcasts. That means hiring new talent (possibly from TSN), improving the quality of the studio shows (both visually and editorially) and innovating on the actual play-by-play.

What it means for CBC

This is a killer. Hockey Night in Canada is now essentially Sportsnet’s puppet. CBC doesn’t get any say on talent, look or style of Hockey Night; Rogers makes all those decisions. Because it’s funded by public money (and the government keeps trimming their budget), CBC couldn’t compete with Rogers financially, simply didn’t have that wherewithal. But because Hockey Night in Canada is such an important institution in Canadian culture, Rogers decided to keep the brand alive (for at least 4 more years). Rogers gets all the revenue from ads run on CBC, but is responsible for all costs involved with putting the broadcasts to air.

As for Hockey Night (the show), chances are some (if not most) personalities will be kept for the time being. Don Cherry will be fine; if he wants work, he’ll have some in my opinion. Too many people want to hear what he has to say, whether they like him or not. For me, the biggest issue is what they do with the production itself. If TSN is talent and innovation, CBC is technical supremacy. Their opening montages are in a class by themselves.

Hopefully this doesn’t change. If I’m Rogers, I try to keep it status quo as much as possible for now. Hockey Night in Canada is sacred in this country, and because Rogers gets all the revenue, they may as well just keep it going anyway.

What it means for TSN

It hurts. There’s no doubt that Rogers takes a big step on TSN here with this deal. More eyes will be on Sportsnet most nights because they’ll be watching hockey.

It’s going to be interesting to find out how many resources TSN invests in hockey now that they’re no longer the rights-holder. The NHL will remain an important part of its foundation (it needs to for any Canadian network to thrive).

Bob McKenzie will remain an insider; he’s on his retirement contract now and he’s still an outstanding professional. At over 600,000 followers on Twitter, he has over 4 times more followers on than Sportsnet’s biggest hockey personality, Nick Kypreos. In fact, I thought it was incredibly ironic yet totally fitting that it was actually McKenzie who broke the deal on Twitter the night before.

TSN's national rights package for NHL games expires at end of this season and isn't being renewed. NHL to announce new CBC-Rogers deal Tues.

— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) November 26, 2013

Of course he’d break the deal, that’s why he’s the go-to-guy. There ain’t no two ways about it.

But what about guys like James Duthie, Darren Dreger, Gord Miller, or Ray Ferraro? They’re talented personalities that could jump ship to Rogers or even NBC in the States if they want to.

As for its programming, you’d have to think that TSN goes after regional NHL deals, junior hockey, more basketball…basically everything they can get their hands on. You just saw Bell extend its agreement with the NFL to broadcast more games than ever starting in 2014.

TSN knows that live programming still trumps everything, and now that it doesn’t have hockey, it’ll have a hard time drawing numbers if all it show is darts or poker.

The deal hurts TSN, no doubt, but it’s far from the end of the network. TSN will be ok. And in 12 years, Canada’s Sports Leader will be right back in line to bid for the next deal.

What it means for the NHL

If Rogers is the big winner in this deal, the NHL is a close second. Gary Bettman set out to get a landmark deal for the owners, and he got just that. We’re talking an average of 14.4 million dollars per team per year, more than 10 times as much as teams receive per year in the current deal with TSN. Canadian teams get a bit more than American teams in the deal for obvious reasons, but it’s still a resounding win for the entire league.

Speaking of Canadian teams, we’re going to be hearing even more about expansion or relocation to Canada now that this deal has been completed. The importance of hockey (and the market potential even in smaller cities) is undeniable with this latest deal; there are now 5.2 billion reasons why a prospective owner would want a team in Canada, and if you’re the NHL, it’s hard to ignore.

Markham? Quebec City? Why not both.

What it means for the hockey fan

Depending on who you ask, this is bittersweet. On one side, it’s tough to argue with more hockey. You now get Wednesdays, Saturdays and Sundays of national broadcasts, with choices abound on several channels (and no regional blackouts on those days).

But, like I said earlier, this might spell the end (eventually) for CBC, and for now its the end of hockey on TSN (for 12 years anyway). For my money, TSN and CBC had the best broadcasts, while Sportsnet was a few steps behind. It’s not to say that Rogers can’t climb to the level of TSN or CBC, but it’ll take time. And as a fan, I’m a little apprehensive by the notion of Sportsnet broadcasting all the games. I’m sure they’ll figure it out eventually, but I am going to miss TSN.

And what about money? We haven’t heard anything yet from Rogers, but this could mean inflated cable bills, or worse, pay-per-view hockey. And will Bell or Shaw subscribers be able to get as many games as Rogers users? The monopoly here frightens me a bit. The whole dynamic of how this affects cable customers is definitely something to closely survey as we move forward.

What it means for broadcasters

I don’t want to get too cheesy here, but I thought I had to point this out; as an aspiring broadcaster, I can’t help but feel that all of this has validated the field I’m working to get into. The fact that so many people could be affected emotionally or psychologically (to any degree) shows the importance of the industry. The fact that, as a fan, we might miss guys like James Duthie or Gord Miller or Bob McKenzie goes to justify how important these personalities can be to us, and how deep of an impact they can have on our everyday lives.

In the end, we’re going to watch the games one way or another. The games won’t change just because they’re broadcast by a different network. A Leafs-Habs game is still a Leafs-Habs game. But that doesn’t mean we’ll digest it or appreciate it in the same way. And that says a lot for the people that put effort into delivering such a good product.

Week 14 NFL Picks

So thanks to New Orleans laying an egg in Seattle on Monday night, I still haven’t hit a week over .500 yet. This is getting bad. Logically, the way Vegas makes its spreads, a gambler should be right around .500 over the long haul (and lose money because the odds aren’t exactly even, they’re obviously tilted towards the house).

So I’m calling this a streak of really bad luck. And if you feel like profiting off of my bad luck, just go ahead and go against all of my picks. You should be fine.

Once again, because of the overall terrible nature of these picks, reader discretion is advised. (Home team in italics).

Minnesota Vikings (+6) over Baltimore Ravens

The Vikings (3-8-1) are certainly not a powerhouse, but they’ve been able to keep games close lately, extending their last two matchups into overtime. The way Adrian Peterson is running the ball (and the way Ray Rice isn’t), it’ll be hard for the Ravens (6-6) to run away with this one. You saw them let the Steelers back in the game on Thanksgiving even though the game should’ve been put to bed after halftime. I’ll take the points.

New England Patriots (-10) over Cleveland Browns

So it’s Josh Gordon against New England basically. And if there’s one thing we know about Belichik, it’s that he likes to take out the other team’s best weapon and let them beat you another way. Unfortunately, the Browns (4-8) don’t have another way. If Jacksonville can put up 32 against Cleveland in a comeback win, imagine what Tom Brady can do. No to mention that the Patriots (9-3) defense is much better than the Jaguars’.

Oakland Raiders (+3) over New York Jets

You can’t win in the NFL without a mediocre (at worst) QB, and the Jets (5-7) don’t have that right now. They’ve lost three in a row, putting up a total of 20 points in that time. Eeesh. It’s not like the Raiders (4-8) are going to blow them out of the water, because they’ve lost 4 of 5, but getting 3 points from the Jets at this point seems too good to ignore (New York hasn’t scored more than 3 points in each of the past to games). I’ll take those points.

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) over Indianapolis Colts

On paper, this looks like a great matchup, one that could very well decide which one of these teams gets the 3rd seed in the AFC and which one gets the 4th seed. But Indy (8-4) hasn’t been the same team ever since Reggie Wayne went down. Cincy (8-4), on the other hand, is undefeated at home, where they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 16.4 points. Sure, some of that is inflated by a 40-point win over the Jets, but this is a team that held the Pats to 6 points. I think they’ll have another strong defensive outing against the suddenly shaky Colts.

Detroit Lions (+3) over Philadelphia Eagles

Similar to the Bengals-Colts matchup, this could be the deciding matchup for the 3rd and 4th seeds in the NFC. The Eagles (7-5) have been outstanding since Nick Foles took over under center, while the Lions (7-5) finally had their first true statement game in a 40-10 win over Green Bay on Thanksgiving. Both offenses are strong, both defenses can be scored on. If the weather wasn’t an issue here, you’d take the over in a hurry. But the way it’s playing out, it could be more of a defensive struggle than you’d expect. Either way, I’ll go NBA-style and take the team (Detroit) with the best player on the field (Calvin Johnson). If it comes down to a game-winning drive, you can certainly trust him.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) over Miami Dolphins

These teams are trending in opposite directions. Despite a win over the (lowly) Jets last week, Miami (5-7) has only won 2 of 9 after starting the season 3-0. The Steelers (5-7), on the other hand, have won 5 of 7 after starting the year 0-5. Pittsburgh is 3-2 at home this year despite their poor record. They still have a decent shot at the 6th seed, so they’ll be desperate to get this one. And plus, they always put their right foot forward.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) over Washington Redskins

This has to be a statement game for KC (9-3). They’ve put up three straight losses now, but during that time they’ve scored 73 points, or an average of 27.7 per game. That probably won’t change against a bad Washington defense. The issue with the Chiefs, strangely, has been their defense, which started the year allowing no more than 17 points in 9 straight wins. But Washington (3-9) isn’t as good offensively as San Diego and certainly not as good as Denver. I expect a bounce back game for the Chiefs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) over Buffalo Bills

Buffalo (4-8) is officially horrible after losing to Atlanta in overtime last week in a game they needed (and should’ve had) but gave away. Tampa Bay (3-9), is officially better than its record shows. In the past 5 weeks, they’ve won 3 games (including games against Miami and Detroit, decent NFL teams) and lost in overtime on the road to Seattle. It’s too late now, but you’d have to think that their record would be much closer to .500 had the Bucs started Mike Glennon under center in Week 1.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) over Green Bay Packers

Atlanta (3-9) really shouldn’t want to win here, but they shouldn’t have against Buffalo last week either, and we saw how that went. They can’t even tank a season properly. And their opponent this week is not the same without its star quarterback. In 8 weeks with Aaron Rodgers, the Pack were 5-2 and scored 29 points per game. Since his injury against the Bears in Week 9, they’re 0-3-1 and have scored 15.5 points per game. In other words, Aaron Rodgers is worth two touchdowns by himself, basically. In case you haven’t realized yet, Rodgers is not playing this week. Atlanta’s got this.

Tennessee Titants (+12.5) over Denver Broncos

Blah blah Peyton Manning in cold weather blah blah. Ok, I’m done with that, now moving on. The Titans (5-7) have allowed the least touchdown passes this season (8). And they’ve only been outscored by double digits once this year. I think the Broncos (10-2) will have more trouble scoring than they’d expect, and this game will turn into more of a running game battle, which means that it won’t be as high scoring as you’d expect, which also means that Denver won’t run away with it. Take the points.

Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) over St. Louis Rams

The Rams kryptonite is good defense (maybe because Kellen Clemens is QB?). In the last 6 weeks, they’ve beaten  blown out Chicago and Indianapolis, but lost to Tennessee, Seattle, Carolina and San Francisco. I’ve already talked about the Titans defense, and it’s no secret that the Seahawks, Panthers and 49ers are great on that side of the ball too. According to Football Outsiders, Seattle, Carolina and San Francisco rank 1st, 2nd, and 6th respectively in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, advanced metrics that measure team efficiency). Arizona is 3rd. I’ll take the Cards defense against Kellen Clemens.

New York Giants (+3.5) over San Diego Chargers 

The Chargers (5-7) are tough to figure out. They’ll score 41 against KC on the road, but then only 10 at home against the Bengals. They’re Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Mediocre. I guess this is really just a gut pick for me. The Giants (5-7) are 5-1 since their abysmal start, and a lot of that is due to Andre Brown’s play in the backfield. I honestly can’t trust either of these teams, but since I’m getting more than a field goal, I’ll take the Giants.

San Francisco 49ers (-3) over Seattle Seahawks

Great game and great line. Remember, Seattle (11-1) isn’t the same team on the road. They’ve only lost one of 6 away from Seattle, but they’ve also only really beaten Atlanta handily; the rest were nail-biters. Plus, the Seahawks haven’t won in their last 4 trips to San Francisco. This game is more important to the Niners (8-4) than it is to Seattle; San Fran is not a lock to make the playoffs yet. I smell a push here, but I’ll go with the team that I think wins the game.

New Orleans Saints (-3) over Carolina Panthers

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Drew Brees dominating at home on primetime. He’s 10-0 in his last 10 starts at the Superdome in primetime, during which he’s thrown 33 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions. The Saints (9-3) will be looking for redemption after their horrible performance on Monday night, and I think we’ll see that happen. Carolina (9-3) has been great during its 8-game winning streak, but Drew Brees on Sunday night is another beast altogether. Great game either way.

Chicago Bears (+1) over Dallas Cowboys

Ok, I’m going to hit a Bears line eventually. This time they’re a home dog against a Dallas (7-5) team that doesn’t necessarily inspire confidence. I can’t find any reason to take Tony Romo on the road giving a point. And on the Bears (6-6) side of things, Josh McCown has done very well in place of Jay Cutler. Nothing scares me about the Cowboys defense. A big game for both teams’ playoff hopes, but I’ll go with the home team.

Last week : 7-8-1

Season : 22-30-3

Week 13 NFL Picks

Well, since it’s Thanksgiving today in the States, I thought I’d hustle to get this post out so I wouldn’t miss any games. Usually I wait until Friday or the weekend because I can almost excuse missing the (usually lame) Thursday Nighter, but missing 3 games was inexcusable.

Although, quite honestly, I’d probably do myself a favour by not doing this because it hasn’t been great so far. Luckily for myself, I have no plans to become a bookie in Vegas anytime soon. You know how movies and TV shows have disclaimers to warn viewers of possible disturbing images? I think I’m going to start doing that. Basically, if you want to make money, just go against all of my picks. You should be fine.

And if you’re not in the gambling mood, just enjoy a great week of football with no byes and THE TOP TWO TEAMS IN BOTH THE AFC AND NFC FACING EACH OTHER. Has that ever happened this late in the regular season before? I have no clue, but it’s pretty spectacular.

So with Turkey, great conference tilts and even a game in Toronto on the menu this weekend, here are the American-Thanksgiving-Day picks. (Home team in italics). Reader discretion is advised.

Detroit Lions (-6.5) over Green Bay Packers

Ah, this would have been such a great Thanksgiving game if Rodgers weren’t injured. But because he is, I’m scared it won’t be that close. Matt Flynn might (and I use that word carefully) be better than Scott Tolzien, but the Packers (5-5-1) still only managed a tie against the lowly Vikings (who they crushed earlier in the season with Rodgers in the game). Detroit (6-5) hasn’t been impressive either recently, but this game should get them going again. Green Bay’s defense isn’t good, and apparently this guy Calvin Johnson is. I think a touchdown win for the Lions is well within reason.

Oakland Raiders (+7.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Doesn’t this set up to be a huge letdown game for Dallas (6-5)? Remember, the Cowboys haven’t won two in a row this year, and every time you feel like you can trust them, they let you down. They edged out a pretty big win in the Meadowlands, and now they go home to face a mediocre Oakland team (4-7) with a chance to take back the NFC East lead.

But Oakland has been competitive in the past 3 weeks, and I think they’ll stay in this game. Again, it just sounds too perfect for Dallas, and that’s usually not a good thing. They do things like this sometimes.

Batlimore Ravens (-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Good line here. I don’t really like one team more than the other, but given that it’s on the road, the Ravens are 3-point favorites. Pittsburgh (5-6) has won 3 in a row and is back in the playoff picture, but they’re only 2-4 on the road, while Baltimore (5-6) has been a solid 4-1 at home this year. The Ravens have won by at least 3 in all of their home wins; I’m seeing nothing less than a push here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8) over Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay (3-8) has actually been impressive in the past month. Don’t look now, but the Bucs have won three straight (against Miami, Atlanta and Detroit) after losing their first eight. The week before that, they had a pretty good showing in Seattle before ultimately losing in overtime. And sure, the Panthers (8-3) are on a 7-game winning streak, but their last 3 wins have been by a combine 9 points. I don’t see a blowout here.

Cleveland Browns (-7) over Jacksonville Jaguars

The last time I thought the Browns had packed in their season (after starting 0-2 and trading Trent Richardson), they went on a three-game winning streak. For that reason, I can’t completely give up on Cleveland despite what the eye-test has told me in the past few weeks. Because, as crazy as it sounds, at 4-7 they’re still not out of the AFC wildcard race. The Jaguars (2-9) have been better lately but still throw in a bad game every couple of weeks, and after beating the Texans in Week 12, they’re due for a stinker here.

Indianapolis Colts (-4) over Tennessee Titans

Look, I know Indy (7-4) hasn’t been good for a while now (really since losing Reggie Wayne), but you’ve got to think they put their foot down here at home against Tennessee (5-6) led by backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (who has been decent as a replacement for Jake Locker). The 2-seed is still very much in play for the Colts if they turn it on down the stretch, and I can’t see them letting this one slide.

Chicago Bears (+1) over Minnesota Vikings

This is the second consecutive week that the division-leading Bears (6-5) have been underdogs to a weaker opponent. Last week it was the Rams, this week it’s the Vikings (2-8-1). Of course, last week the Bears had their rear ends handed to them by St. Louis, but two weeks in a row? Losing Jay Cutler is not nearly as detrimental to Chicago as, for example, Aaron Rodgers is to Green Bay. Josh McCown has been fine taking over for Cutler. This isn’t happening two weeks in a row. Give me Daaaaaaa Bears.

New York Jets (-2) over Miami Dolphins

The Jets (5-6) are 4-1 at home, while the Dolphins (5-6) are 2-3 on the road. It seems simplistic, because it is. Geno Smith on the road? Terrible. Geno Smith at home? Decent enough to win. This just feels like a bad matchup for Miami. New York’s defense is legit; Miami’s offensive line isn’t.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) over Philadelphia Eagles

This should be a good one. Both teams have turned it around after so-so starts and are on pretty good winning streaks. That being said, it’s more been a case of both of them taking advantage of their weaker opponents. For Arizona (7-4), it’s been Atlanta, Houston, Jacksonville and Indianapolis (who never really showed up last week), while Philadelphia (6-5) beat Oakland, Green Bay (without Rodgers) and Washington is succession. It’ll be interesting to see who falters against a decent opponent.

The biggest issue here for the Eagles is that they’ve been so reliant on that offense, but Arizona’s defense has been among the best this year. Philly won’t have the same success throwing the ball as it did against the Raiders, Packers or Redskins. Plus, kind of like in the Dallas game, you should always be worried about an NFC East team, especially when you think they’re feeling good about themselves.

Denver Broncos (-4.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

Did you see what Philip Rivers did to Kansas City (9-2) last week? This defense is not the same we saw for the first few weeks, probably because they’ve started playing good teams now. Plus, Peyton and the Broncos (9-2) will be fired up after they pooped the bed in New England in the second half/overtime of the Sunday Nighter. I don’t see Denver winning by any less than 7 points, even if the game is in Arrowhead. And this is in no way my best effort to jinx the Broncos. (Hey, if I can’t get these right, I may as well use my powers for good).

Before I move on, I just want to say something quick. It’s almost like this game has lost hype somehow after these teams played two weeks ago. But wait, these are still the top two teams in the AFC facing off. And they’re in the same division! Still a massive tilt. Should be fantastic. OHHH YEAAAAAAAAH!

New England Patriots (-7.5) over Houston Texans 

I’m going to keep picking agaisnt Houston (2-9) as long as Vegas keeps giving them even the slightest respect. I thought this line would be at least double digits, but apparently someone still seems something (I have no idea what) in the Texans. This is a team THAT PUT UP 6 POINTS AGAINST JACKSONVILLE AT HOME LAST WEEK. That’s it. New England (8-3) is going to run all over them. The Pats are starting to get healthy, and played well against Denver (besides the fumbles that killed their first half). Should be double digits easily.

Buffalo Bills (-3) over Atlanta Falcons

This game really scares me for Buffalo because the Bills usually don’t come out swinging for these Toronto games. They’ve only won one of five at Rogers Centre, against the then (and again now) brutal Washington Redskins in 2011. That being said, I think Atlanta (2-9) falls in that same category. And while the Falcons don’t have much to play for anymore (besides a higher draft pick), the Bills are still in the thick of that craptastic AFC wildcard race.

That’s right. The 4-7 Bills are the ones looking to make a playoff push against the lowly Falcons this Sunday in Toronto. I doubt anyone was selling it that way when they first put it on the schedule.

San Francisco 49ers (-8)  over St. Louis Rams

Are the Rams good maybe? You’d have thought that losing Sam Bradford for the season (and, more importantly, replacing him with Kellen Clemens) would spell the end for St. Louis, but not quite. They’ve blown out the Colts and Bears in back-to-back games, and now they play the 49ers who haven’t really been as good as you could have hoped, especially lately.

But hang on. St. Louis has been carried by running back Zac Stacy, and now he looks questionable at best for this game. It’s one thing for Kellen Clemens to hand the ball off and win, it’s another for him to throw it and win. This is not the Colts or Bears defense, this is the 49ers defense, a whole ‘nother beast. I think we see a statement game from San Fran.

Cincinnati Bengals (+1) over San Diego Chargers 

This is what the Chargers have done after a win this year : loss to Tennessee (Week 3), loss to Oakland (Week 5), win against Jacksonville (only back-to back, Week 6), three straight losses to Washington, Denver and Miami (Weeks 9-11). Aside from beating the Jags (who were still winless and hopeless at the time), San Diego (5-6) hasn’t played well after a win. Cincinnati (7-4) isn’t a walkover. I’ll take the Bengals defense over the Chargers offense in this one.

New York Giants (-1) over Washington Redskins

This is a sad indictment for the Giants (4-7) to only be favored by one against the Redskins (3-8). Don’t let their similar records fool you; New York had won four in a row before losing to Dallas on Sunday, while Washington has lost 4 of 5. That Redskins offense has been pretty bad too. It’s just a real messy situation in D.C. right now with the obvious bad vibes between RGIII, his coaches and his teammates. I’m not getting anywhere close to that situation.

New Orleans Saints (+5) over Seattle Seahawks

Fantastic Monday Night game, a possible NFC Conference Final, probably the best ESPN has gotten all year. It’s going to be loud in Seattle, and it’s going to be fun. There isn’t a whole lot to say about these two teams besides the fact that they’re obviously very good. It’s Seattle’s running attack against New Orleans’ passing attack.

In years past, I would have definitely taken the Seahawks (10-1) at home giving only 5 points, but this Saints (9-2) team can play decent defense too, so they won’t be out of it. And you know how quickly Brees and the gang can strike on offense. I think we’ll see a field goal here, and I actually think New Orleans can win it. Either way I think 5 is too much.

Last week : 4-9-0

Season : 15-22-2

 

Week 12 NFL Picks

There goes my streak of perfect mediocrity…

After the afternoon games last week, I had an even record of 5-5-2. With two primetime games left, I figured I would split them again, almost like destiny. I was wrong on the KC-Denver game, so I needed to get the Monday Nighter. And I would have if the refs had called pass interference on Luke Kuechly in the endzone and given Tom Brady another shot from the 1-yard line.

And it doesn’t even matter if I actually agree with the non-call (which I do), I’m still allowed to blame the refs for screwing up my .500 week because this is my blog and I can do what I want.

(I actually broke this gif down frame-by-frame on a random site, and when the significant contact begins, the Carolina defender has already started his jump on the ball. No way Gronk gets there before he does).

Now, it’s one thing to be wrong more times than to be right, it’s another to understand why. This is a process, and I don’t expect to be Johnny Handicapper 3 weeks in. What I do know is that I need to pick more home teams. I took 10 teams on the road last week out of the 14 games, and I went 2-7-1 in those games. So, here are my Week 12 picks, with a concerted effort to pick more home teams.

And because I want to change my luck a bit, I’m also changing the style/appearance of my picks. The team I’m taking will be always be in bold from now on, while the home team will be in italics. A lot of times, it’ll be both, because I’ll be picking a lot of home teams.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) over San Diego Chargers

Again, absolutely no respect for Kansas City (9-1) who’s playing at home (in one of the loudest stadiums) against a weaker divisional opponent in San Diego (4-6). If you buy in to the theory that Vegas generally gives 3 points to the home team by default, that means that, on a neutral field, this is basically a pick-em game. Seriously? I think Kansas City bounces back from its first loss in Denver and takes this one easily.

Baltimore Ravens (-4) over New York Jets

Geno Smith showed me why I shouldn’t bet on him on the road last week, losing 37-14 to the Bills. I don’t really trust either of these teams; the Jets are somehow holding the 6th seed in the AFC at 5-5, while the Ravens are suffering from a Super Bowl hangover at 4-6. However, I read a cool article about how hard John Harbaugh works every week, and that’s enough to swing me to the Ravens side for this week, so I’ll take the home team here.

Cleveland Browns (-2) over Pittsburgh Steelers

I don’t really have a reason to pick the Browns besides defaulting to the home team. Signs would point to Pittsburgh (4-6) having the momentum edge over Cleveland (4-6) after last week given that the Steelers crushed the Lions while the Browns were crushed by the Bengals, but I’m kind of cheering for the Browns to make the playoffs, so this is a game they need to win.

Detroit Lions (-7) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a great line. Most people (like me) are still leaning towards the Lions (6-4) because the Bucs (2-8) aren’t really any good, but 8 points is still a lot, and Detroit hasn’t had a convincing win since Week 5. But hey, now’s as good a time as any. Tampa Bay hasn’t won on the road yet, I think the Lions have their way with them today.

Chicago Bears (+2) over St. Louis Rams

Fact: Chicago (6-4) is tied for 1st in the NFC North. Fact: St. Louis (4-6) is last in the NFC West. Fact: Kellen Clemens is playing quarterback for the Rams. Fact: The Bears are somehow underdogs here.

Green Bay Packers (-6) over Minnesota Vikings

I would say that the fact that Green Bay (5-5) is still without Aaron Rodgers would be an issue, but Minnesota’s (2-8) quarterbacks aren’t any good, so it doesn’t matter. It’s basically Adrian Peterson vs. Eddie Lacy+Jordy Nelson+Jarett Boykin. I’ll take quantity over quality.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+10.5) over Houston Texans

What doesn’t Vegas understand? Houston (2-8) does not deserve to be a 10-point favourite to any team, no matter how bad they are. Granted, Jacksonville (1-9) is really bad at football, but newsflash, so are the Texans. And I don’t think Vegas has fully grasped that yet.

Miami Dolphins (+4.5) over Carolina Panthers

Upset special! I think the Dolphins (5-5) win this week. Carolina (7-3) has all the momentum with 6 straight wins, but Ron Rivera is due for a few bad decisions that really hurt his team. This is the classic trap game for the Panthers. They’ll overlook Miami and pay for it. (I think).

Indianapolis Colts (+3) over Arizona Cardinals

How is Arizona (6-4) getting almost as much respect at home against a good Colts team (7-3) as the 9-1 Chiefs are against the Chargers? That’s ridiculous. The Cardinals haven’t really had an impressive win since beating the Panthers in Week 5, and even that, Carolina hadn’t really hit their stride yet. The Colts just keep going: they’ve rolled off at least two straight wins after every loss this year. Given that they lost just two weeks ago, the pattern should continue this week.

Oakland Raiders (+3) over Tennessee Titans

Maybe Oakland (4-6) isn’t bad? The Raiders keep bringing in a new quarterback who’s the “guy of the future”. It was Terrelle Pryor earlier this year, now it’s Matt McGloin, who teammates apparently call McLovin. I’m sold. Plus, the Titans (4-6). They’ve lost 6 of 7 games, their only win coming when Jake Locker was back. In other words, the Titans haven’t won without Jake Locker under center this year. He’s out for the year now. I’ll take the Raiders.

New York Giants (-3) over Dallas Cowboys

Look out, here come the GGGGGGG-Meeeeeeeen. All of a sudden, the Giants (4-6) are just two games back of the NFC East lead. That’s what 4 straight wins can do for you in this craptastic division. Meanwhile, Dallas (5-5) is still being mediocre. They don’t ever pick up momentum because they don’t string wins together. Also, they’re 1-4 on the road. Give me the Giants!

New England Patriots (+2) over Denver Broncos

Sunday Night. Manning and Brady. Doesn’t get any better.

If you don’t think the Patriots (7-3) are insulted by being an underdog at home on Sunday Night, you’re kidding yourself. That’s not to take anything away from the Broncos (9-1) who have been spectacular on offense. But you know Belichik and Brady have circled this game on the calendar since the day it was released. According to SB Nation, this is the first time that New England is an underdog at home since 2005. They’ll be motivated as ever for this one. I’ll take the Pats.

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) over Washington Redskins

You know that ESPN thought Washington (3-7) would be good this year to have them in a Monday Nighter this late in the season, but boy were they wrong. And to be fair, San Francisco (6-4) hasn’t necessarily been impressive after their Super Bowl run. Colin Kaepernick didn’t take a big step forward like you would hope; if anything, he’s taken a step back. But their defense is still very good, and Washington’s isn’t. So I’ll take the Niners

BONUS PICK!!!

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+7) over Saskatchewan Roughriders

I know the crowd will be a big factor in this game, and I actually think the Riders will win. But the Ti-Cats could pull it out  they showed that ability in Toronto. Most likely though, this will be a close game no matter who wins, too close for the line.

I’ll go Saskatchewan 26, Hamilton 21, with Kory Sheets as the Grey Cup MOP.

 Last week : 5-7-2

Overall : 11-13-2

The Definitive Recast of Space Jam

Space Jam has always been an institution unto itself for me.

It’s out-of-this-world big, bigger than basketball, bigger than cartoons; it’s galactic.

Space Jam literally (and I don’t use that word lightly) combined the best of two worlds : the cartoon world, where the Looney Tunes are king, and the sports world, where Michael Jordan was (especially at the time) king. So many great elements: family-friendly comedy, high-profile cameos, and an impossibly fun comeback-infused high-profile sporting event. If this movie wasn’t legendary, why would Yahoo! have make a spoof of an ESPN 30-for-30 documentary detailing the incredible game that was the MonStars versus the Tune Squad.

If you haven’t seen Space Jam yet, please, for the love of Bill Murray, watch it now. There’s a link here where you can stream it online, works great.

I can’t count the amount of times I’ve seen the movie, and I never ever ever ever ever get tired of it (I actually have it playing again on my computer in the background as I write this). I don’t get tired of Lola Bunny, or of Wayne Knight “fixing a divot” in the green, or of those awkward couch interviews where the therapist tries to figure out why the NBA stars can’t play basketball anymore, or (especially) of Michael Jordan harnessing his inner Inspector Gadget to score that game-winning bucket. And you know what, I’m not even sorry if that was a spoiler for you. You should have seen the movie already. I gave you the opportunity to do so earlier anyway. But I digress.

Now, there are many examples of sequels that never should have been made, like Caddyshack 2, The Next Karate Kid or Batman & Robin; a sequel is generally never a good idea (I’m already scared that Anchorman 2 will fall disastrously short of the expectations set by the original). But, let’s not consider this a sequel, more of a remake. We’re trying to take what we had in Space Jam and translate it to today’s NBA.

That may sound challenging, but worry not, that’s what I’m here for.

I’m not the first person to think of this. In this article, Josh Klein tries to do the same thing as I’m about to do, which is to project the 6 NBA players (5 MonStars and one superhuman beast) that would be cast in the remake of this legendary movie. However, Josh Klein fails miserably at projecting his starting 5 MonStars for reasons I’ll explain later. So if anyone ever asks, nobody has ever accurately projected the cast of Space Jam 2. Until now.

The procedure

Just like your high school chemistry lab project, there is a certain procedure to follow. To correctly select the 6 players in this remake, we need to be faithful to the original cast, not only in what kind of players we use (in size and type) but how the teams were constructed. For the Tune Squad, that’s easier: it’s the Looney Tunes plus one near superhuman/generational NBA talent. We’ll get to that soon. The MonStars, though, is a bit more interesting. So let’s start with them.

The MonStars

The MonStars as a starting-5 are far from conventional. If you were an NBA team today and you had these five players as your starting-5, you wouldn’t necessarily win, and that’s the key in making this team. You don’t want the 5 best NBA players for this team, otherwise Michael Jordan and the Tune Squad would not have won. That’s a fact that I just made up.

The MonStars talents are taken from Muggsy Bogues, Larry Johnson, Charles Barkley, Patrick Ewing and Shawn Bradley. That’s one point guard (Bogues), two power forwards (Johnson and Barkley) and two centers (Ewing and Bradley). Weird composition to a basketball squad, but I guess that’s what happens when your GM is also the chief moron of Moron Mountain (no, not Jerry Jones, I’m talking about the hell-like alien amusement park in the movie).

That’s where John Klein fails. On his team, he has Russell Westbrook, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin and Anthony Davis. Those players are too good, and they’re not even positionally faithful to the original five. That team probably wins against the Tune Squad too; that can’t happen.

So here’s my team, player-by-player. (Apparently every Monstar has a name, so we’ll learn those too).

Mugsy Bogues, aka Red Guy, aka Nawt : Nate Robinson

One of the easiest to pick. Just like Bogues, Robinson is one of the shortest guys in the NBA, has handles, and is irrationally confident. Robinson is also a great dunker (which makes him an ever better pick than Bogues). Great dunking, as we’ll see moving forward, is something that’ll carry over throughout this squad for the most part. The MonStars basically just dunked the whole game. (Apparently they didn’t learn anything in the “introduction to basketball” video that Bugs showed them).

And just like Robinson, Muggsy was never an all-star; he never averaged more than 10.8 points per game. He was a great passer however, something he has over Robinson, but otherwise they’re very similar. Plus, his name’s Nate, and the alien’s name is Nawt. That’s a sign.

Charles Barkley, aka Orange Guy, aka Pound : Zach Randolph

Remember, the MonStars don’t have a traditional lineup, so the Orange Guy is really the next shortest guy on the team.

For “Pound”, there’s one word that describes what you’re looking for most : intimidation. We’re talking physically and psychologically intimidating. The Orange Guy is the scariest, meanest and chunkiest guy on the team. So that means we need a scary, mean, chunky NBA player. Like Zach Randolph. Don’t take my word for it, just ask Jalen Rose, who ranks Randolph as the number one “dark-alley” player of all time, aka the guy you would never want to meet in a dark alley.

I think Z-Bo is a good fit here. He may big significantly taller than Sir Charles, but they’re both intimidating and both have the same low-post scoring proficiency. I’m pretty sure Barkley would be on Jalen’s 1990’s dark-alley team too.

Larry Johnson, aka Purple Guy, aka Bupkus : Blake Griffin

Tough one here. Larry Johnson was technically a stretch-four/small forward, but his alien counterpart is portrayed much more like Griffin; an athletic power forward that can dunk with the best of them. And if you were playing these 5 guys on the floor, you’d probably have Griffin at small forward because his athleticism would be too much to handle for the smaller wing players. You’re just going to lob it up to him anyway, it’s not like he has to create his own shot.

Griffin may be the player that least resembles his former NBA counterpart on this list, but if I had money on it, I’d bet that he’d be the first guy chosen for a Space Jam recast. His dunking ability and marketability are undeniable. With that in mind, Bupkus is his best fit.

Patrick Ewing, aka Green Guy, aka Bang : Anthony Davis

This is almost a homerun as far as resemblances between Ewing and Davis are concerned. Great young player? Check. Puts up 20+ points per game? Check. Great defender? Check. Just look at both of their Year 2 numbers (so far in Davis’ case).

Ewing : 21.8 pts, 8.8 rb, 1.7 ast, 2.4 blk, 1.4 stl, 50.3 FG%,

Davis : 20.9 pts, 11.0 rb, 1.5 ast, 3.6 blk, 2.1 stl, 48.4 FG%,

Those are very similar stat lines. I like my Green Guy tall and dominating, but he has to be a good dunker too and has to look somewhat like a dinosaur (I guess Chris Bosh would be a good candidate in that case, but Davis is too perfect). Plus, Anthony Davis kind of looks like Bang to begin with.

Notice how the alien actually has a unibrow. It’s green, so it doesn’t show as Davis’, but it’s there.

You know what, I’m starting the campaign now to officially have “Bang” as Anthony Davis’ (other) nickname. Just think of how cool it would be to have Mike Breen make one of his legendary calls on a great play by the Brow. Usually those are reserved for 3-pointers, but I’m sure he could use “bang!” to describe a great Anthony Davis dunk or block too. This has to happen. Now.

Shawn Bradley, aka Blue Guy, aka Blanko – Roy Hibbert

Unfortunately, Yao Ming isn’t in the league anymore to take this spot, so we have to settle with a guy who’s not quite as tall. Obviously the key with the Blue Guy is height. At 7’2″, Roy Hibbert is one of the 5 tallest guys in the NBA, and he’s 4 inches taller than anyone else on my team. Sure, “Blanko” is clearly a passively-aggressive racist name for the token white guy on the team, but I see past that.

Offensively, Hibbert is definitely a step above anything Bradley ever was, but defensively their games are similar. And again, all Hibbert (or Blanko) is doing in the movie is dunk anyway, so it doesn’t matter much. Hibbert meets the height and defensive requirements, so he’s in.

The Tune Squad

Obviously most of the Tune Squad remains intact. We’re not getting rid of Bugs, or Daffy, or Elmer Fudd, or any of the Looneys. That’s just not happening. True story, Looney Tunes don’t grow older; they’re eternally the same. That’s why Bugs Bunny, to this day, is the 9th most portrayed film-personality in the world.

But there’s obviously one piece missing, and that’s the superstar-level NBA talent needed to lead this team to victory. And I don’t care how many people are whispering that Michael Jordan might be looking to come back to the NBA for one game, he’s in no shape to lead the Tune Squad to victory like he did over 15 years ago.

We need a current superstar. A physical and mental freak of nature, a man whose all-around NBA talents cannot be matched, and the only current player who would have a realistic shot of leading this team to victory (and yes, I get that “realistic” might not be the appropriate word given the cartoon-universe setting).

Michael Jordan, aka Generational Talent – LeBron James 

Come on, there was never really any doubt here. Sure, you can talk about how good Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Derrick Rose, Chris Paul or any other of the NBA’s superstars are, but no one can match LeBron right now. He’s at the peak of his powers, and he can do everything.

Plus, as far as will-to-win/work-ethic/alpha-dog mentality are concerned, he’s the only player in the NBA that can compare to Jordan and handle the load of carrying the team on his (very wide) shoulders. And don’t worry, the real LeBron James woudn’t quit on the Tune Squad like the College Humour version of him did. No, he’d do what he did against the Celtics in Game 6 of the East Finals in 2012 (45 pts-15 rebs-5 asts), or against the Pistons in Game 7 of the East Finals in 2007 (25 consecutive points for his team, 48 overall) : everything his team needed him to do to win.

Plus, LEBRON JAMES WANTS TO DO THIS! HE WANTS BE THE MJ OF SPACE JAM 2, HE SAID SO!

RT @Parletoo: @KingJames do you love space Jam ?(I love that movie. Wish I could do Space Jam 2!)

— LeBron James (@KingJames) August 26, 2012

See! LeBron wants Space Jam 2, and Space Jam 2 surely wants LeBron.

There’s nothing more to say.

NFL Week 11 Picks

So last week when I made my inaugural weekly NFL picks, I said that all I needed to do was end up somewhere close to .500 to be considered respectable. Well what do you know! Not only did I come close, I nailed it right on the head thanks Tampa Bay’s win over Miami: a perfectly mediocre week of 6-6-1 (the tie coming from the push in the Cardinals-Texans game).

I’m like the Dallas Cowboys of amateur handicapping: exactly mediocre. I’m not sure if I like that, especially given that the Cowboys have Week 11 off. Not a great sign. But one week is a small sample size anyway, so we’ll see how it goes moving forward.

The playoff races are heating up, so let’s get to it! (Home teams in bold).

New York Jets (-1) over Buffalo Bills

I reserve the right to completely flip-flop on a team from one week to the next, and this is what I’m doing with the Bills (3-6). As much as I was impressed with their Jeff Tuel-led offense at home against the Chiefs, I was even more disappointed with their performance against the lowly Steelers. I’ve lost hope on this team (I think I’m late to that party by more than a decade, but whatever).

The Jets (5-4), on the other hand, are coming off a bye and are in even better shape than they were after Week 9. Since they last played, the Chargers lost, the Titans lost twice, Oakland, Buffalo and Houston basically eliminated any hopes they had of making the playoffs, and divisional rival Miami went through a scandal that rocked its locker room AND lost to the winless Bucs on Monday Night Football. Suddenly the Jets have the inside track on getting that 6th seed in the AFC. I think they’re starting to feel good about themselves and put it together this week.

Chicago Bears (-3) over Baltimore Ravens

Look, I’m fine with Josh McCown at quarterback for the Bears (5-4). I think he proved that he can do more than enough to help them win in his two games under center. Plus, Baltimore isn’t a good team. They went up 17-0 on the Bengals last week and still tried their best to let Cincy win. They would have succeeded to do so were it not for Giovani Bernard running like 15 yards backwards in overtime and giving the Ravens (4-5) great feel position. Chicago went toe-to-toe against Detroit even with a half-crippled Jay Cutler. I think they’ll be fine with McCown against the Ravens. As long as Chiacgo isn’t down by more than 4 late, they should have no problem scoring a last-minute touchdown. I mean, even I would’ve made that catch.

Cleveland Browns (+6) over Cincinnati Bengals

I don’t know if I can trust the Bengals (6-4) to dominate any team anymore, especially after they laid an egg in the first half against the Ravens. And it may be hard to grasp, but Cleveland (4-5) is actually a pretty good defense, especially against the pass. Cornerback Joe Haden is going to cause nightmares for Andy Dalton. Cleveland’s still very much in the playoff race, even the division race, so I think they put up a good fight here, maybe even win. I can see the Bengals squeaking out a win, but I think the Browns keep it close.

Oakland Raiders (+9) over Houston Texans

I don’t care who Houston (2-7) is playing, they should never be getting 9 points. Giving bad teams that many points usually doesn’t work out. Just look at what the Raiders (3-6) did last week on the road against the Giants (who are just as good a team as the Texans, if not better)…Oakland got 7 points and kept the game within 4. I see something similar here. I’ll take the points.

Arizona Cardinals (-9) over Jacksonville Jaguars

I nailed the Jags (1-8) pick in a similar line last week, but I just can’t see them putting up two solid games in a row. Arizona (5-4) has a better defense than the Titans, and as long as Carson Palmer doesn’t hurt the Cards too much, they should run all over Jacksonville. Not only was last week’s game the first win for the Jaguars, it was the first time they kept a game within single digits, the closest being a 19-9 loss to the Raiders.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) over Washington Redskins

I had the Redskins here initially because, in my mind, I thought the NFC was so messed up that it would be the exact opposite of what I really thought it should be. But then that conclusion that made me think the opposite, and I kept going back-and-forth until my brain was ready to explode like Professor Charles Xavier in X-Men : The Last Stand when Jean goes ballistic. I was making it too hard on myself. Here’s the simpler way to go about it: Eagles passing offense with Foles at QB + Redskins pass defense = trouble for Washington.

Detroit Lions (-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Not sure how the 6-3 Lions are only giving 3 points to the 3-6 Steelers, especially considering Detroit is coming off a big road win against divisional rival Chicago. That was a statement game for me. This team has a decent defense and has a good balance on offense. Maybe Vegas knows something I don’t, but I think Detroit wins this with relative ease.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I really don’t know what to do here, but just like the Jags, the Bucs (1-8) got their first win in Week 10, and awful teams usually don’t win two in a row. That’s my analysis. I’m sorry. The only other thing I’ll mention is that the Falcons (2-7) have more playmakers on offense, and they’re due to have a random breakout game. Now seems like as good a time as any.

San Diego Chargers (-1) over Miami Dolphins

I’m not coming anywhere close to the mess that is the Miami Dolphins (4-5) until they show me that they can be trusted. The locker room has obviously been affected by the Richie Incognito thing, I’m not ready to back them just yet. Plus, I think the Chargers (4-5) are still better than their record shows. Watch for a bounce-back game from Philip Rivers here.

New Orleans Saints (-3) over San Francisco 49ers

The Saints (7-2) did nothing in Week 10 for me to lose confidence in them at home, and the 49ers (6-3) did nothing in Week 10 for me to gain confidence in them against a good team. San Fran might be the most unimpressive 6-3 team ever. They dropped home games to the Colts and (most recently) the Panthers, were blown out by the Seahawks on the road, and otherwise beat teams they should have. Their only real impressive win was against Green Bay in Week 1, and we’re far removed from that. New Orleans, on the other hand, is money at home.

Seattle Seahawks (-12) over Minnesota Vikings

The last time Seattle (8-1) was favoured by this many at home, they barely got by the Bucs in overtime. But that won’t happen here. Seattle’s hitting its stride and the Vikings (2-7) continue to be a disaster. Minnesota’s lost 3 straight, by an average of 18 points. The fact that Christian Ponder is coming back from injury changes nothing for me. If anything, it makes me even more confident to have Ponder making his first start in 3 weeks against the great Seahawks defense. This should be a cake-walk for Seattle.

New York Giants (-4) over Green Bay Packers

Sorry Green Bay (5-4), last week showed me that Aaron Rodgers is too valuable to your team to pick you on the road. The Pack will get theirs on the ground, but that’s about it. The Giants (3-6), on the other hand, continue to lurk in the NFC East. They’re now just two back of the division lead after 3 straight wins. I’ll go with the home team here, only because I think Andre Brown finally gives New York a good running game to lean on.

Kansas City Chiefs (+8) over Denver Broncos

Game of the week! Kansas City (9-0) brings its undefeated record and #1 defense to Mile High to face the nearly-undefeated and high-powered Denver team (8-1). One of the biggest games in recent history actually, not just of this season. Very rare to get two conference rivals (let alone divisional rivals) with such good records facing each other this late in the season. But wait, it’s not done, because they play each other again in two weeks!

Keep in mind the Chiefs haven’t allowed more than 17 points in any game this year. And they’ve played some pretty good offenses, like the Eagles and Cowboys (who put up 51 against Denver if you recall). It’ll be tough for the Chiefs to win here on the road and on prime-time against Peyton Manning, but don’t forget that Manning is hobbled with two bad ankles; that’s bad news for Kansas City’s great pass rush. The fact that a 9-0 team is an 8 point underdog is unheard of. I expect nothing more than a touchdown game here.

New England Patriots (+3) over Carolina Panthers

This feels like the game where everyone is jumping on the Carolina Panthers (6-3) bandwagon and forgetting about the Patriots (7-2), who then come in and make a statement on prime-time. I was impressed by Carolina’s road game in San Francisco, but I fear that this moment is too big for Cam Newton, Ron Rivera and the Panthers. I’ll take Bill Bellicheck and Tom Brady coming off a bye and still getting 3 points.

Last week : 6-6-1

Season : 6-6-1

Men’s Canadian Olympic Hockey Team : Three-Month Lookahead

Exactly three months from today, Team Canada’s Olympic hockey team will open its tournament schedule in Sochi against Norway. Three months. That’s not a lot of time, especially if you’re Steven Stamkos. In case you haven’t heard (somehow), Stamkos suffered a broken right tibia in Monday’s game against the Bruins. Absolute best case scenario for his return? Three months.

First, a moment of sadness

Before I get any further, I just need to express how truly upset I am by the Stamkos injury. (In case you haven’t seen it, here it is).

And it’s not even a selfish “we need him for Team Canada” thing. I feel bad for the player. He didn’t get to play in Vancouver because the management group felt he was still too inexperienced, and now this. Barring an impressive comeback, it looks like he’ll need to wait another 4 years to make his Olympic debut. (Mike Babcock has already said that they’ll put Stamkos on the roster and that they’ll replace him if need be, but it looks like they will in fact need to replace him. It seems unlikely that Stammer would play in Sochi).

I also feel bad for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who were rolling at 12-5-0 before this injury and will be put to an enormous test without its best player. As Greg Wyshinski pointed out in his Puck Daddy Blog, Stamkos is kind of an important part of Tampa’s offense. “The Lightning have 56 goals on the season and Stamkos has 23 points, meaning he’s participating on the scoresheet on 41 percent of the Bolts’ tallies. He scored 10 of the Lightning’s 32 even strength goals.”

Ouch. It’s going to be a difficult road for the Lightning without Stamkos, a team who I had correctly predicted to make a jump this season (hey, I make enough bad calls, I may as well pat my shoulder for the few good ones).

Last, and certainly not least, I’m upset for the league as a whole who just lost one of its best ambassadors, one of its most marketable players and overall one of its best players. Everyone benefits from having a guy like Steven Stamkos in the NHL: a stand-up, hard-working superstar who represents everything that is good about the game of hockey.

Now, onto some business

It’s never a perfect science to predict Team Canada’s team because you never know exactly what Steve Yzerman, Mike Babcock and the gang are thinking in picking the team (besides the obvious fact that the Stamkos injury is a huge downer). But this three month mark represents a good time to look ahead; we’ve seen a decent amount of the season to gauge how guys are playing, and some guys seem to have successfully played their way on (Duchene) or off (Giroux?) the team already.

As I write this, keep in mind that I’m trying to make a team, not just pick the 14 best fowards, 8 best defenceman and 3 best goalies available. That’s exactly what Yzerman did in 2010, and that’s what he’ll do again. This is a team, not a bunch of individuals. (And I make this hypothetical team under the assumption that Steven Stamkos will not be in Sochi. I’d rather prepare for the worst case and have a pleasant surprise than vice versa). So, without further ado…

The Fantastic Fourteen 

John Tavares – Sidney Crosby – Chris Kunitz 

Matt Duchene – Claude Giroux – Logan Couture

Taylor Hall – Ryan Getzlaf – Corey Perry

Jonathan Toews – Patrice Bergeron – Eric Staal

Martin St. Louis – Rick Nash

Obviously this team is loaded up front, even (sadly) without Stamkos. No surprise that Sidney Crosby is the top line centre, he’s probably the captain too. But already I hear you disagreeing with the rest of that first combo. Thing is, I can’t deny the chemistry between Crosby and Kunitz. These guys are getting it done together against the best players in the NHL, what’s crazy about them doing it against the best players in the world? If you’re bringing on Kunitz, it’s obviously to play with Sid. Throw another superstar in Tavares on that trio, and you have a line that can score and defend. That’s what you need (from top to bottom really).

The second line is the kid/speed line. Duchene has been unreal this season; he’s earned his spot on the team in my opinion. Couture has taken over as “the guy” in San Jose and I think he’s ready for this stage. Giroux is the big question mark here. I don’t think he’s played his way off the team just yet, but he’s definitely not a lock anymore. I don’t think Team Canada liked the fact that he didn’t go to their orientation camp  in August, either, and that might hurt his chances even more. But I still think he turns his game around and becomes an important member of this team; he remains incredibly skilled and has the speed and talent to play on the bigger ice surface.. If you have him on the team, you don’t play him on the fourth line either.

The third line is the energy line, and by energy I mean big, strong and fast players that’ll run over the other team to score. Perry and Getzlaf are almost a given to play together, and I think Hall fits well with those two. I think he’s another player who’s on the bubble here though. Jamie Benn would be an equally nice fit in this spot.

Fourth line is obviously the checking line, centered by one of the best two-way forwards in the game in Bergeron. I’ve heard some people question whether he deserves to be on the team, but I think he’s a lock. Same with Toews. You could argue that Toews should go higher in the depth chart, and I do agree that he’ll get more than 4th line minutes on his team. But I see him and Bergeron getting a lot of minutes late in games together, so I may as well put them on the same line now. Eric Staal in a size/leadership role is a good third member on that line.

As for my two extras, I need to see more from Nash to put him higher on the depth chart. He’s not the same dominant player that he once was (obviously not right now because he’s recovering from injury, but even last year). But if he’s healthy, you have to put him on the team because he’s a guy you can play anywhere and has that gold-medal experience from 2010. St. Louis is such a good player offensively that I think it would be a mistake to leave him off the team. Plus, I think Steve Yzerman can’t do without bringing his guy on the team.

Notables left off : Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza, Andrew Ladd, Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Jordan Eberle, Patrick Sharp, James Neal, Milan Lucic.

Like I said, so much talent in the forward group; I could’ve went on and on. When you get down to this group, it’s all about roles as far as how they can play their way onto the team. Guys like Benn, Spezza, Eberle and Neal are the next best offensive threats, while Ladd, Carter and Richards would be considered for more of a two-way role. And Lucic would be the “power forward” type if that’s what they’re looking for. Of this group, I’d say Benn is the closest to being on the team (and still has time to play his way on it), while Sharp would be my next pick.

The Elite Eight

Drew Doughty – Shea Weber

Duncan Keith – Brent Seabrook

P.K. Subban – Alex Pietrangelo

Kris Letang/Dion Phaneuf

The defense corps is a little bit easier to select, and what a solid group of 2-way defenceman it is. You can play just about any one of these guys on the powerplay or the penalty kill, just as you would even strength.

Doughty and Weber are the two studs. You want to play them against the opposing team’s best players. And they can shoot too. Remember this? Yup, that’s Shea Weber shooting through a hockey net.

Keith and Seabrook are almost a package deal in my opinion. They’re such a good pairing with the Hawks, why not benefit from that? No other country has the opportunity of sending such an outstanding top-line pairing together; we may as well take advantage of it. They can neutralize the best offensive players in the world, and their speed and passing ability will help the transition game.

Subban and Pietrangelo are the “budding superstar” duo. I’d have them out there as much as possible on offensive zone starts. Give me some P.K. one-timers all-day long.

Letang and Phaneuf are my two extras. In my mind, you want one offensive specialist and one guy that can eat up minutes. If something were to happen to Subban, Letang’s your guy on the powerplay (and may be that guy for the second PP). And say what you will about Phaneuf, but he’s a plus-player who consistently plays 25+ minutes against the best guys on the other team. Again, if you get an injury to an important defenceman, you want to have a guy that you can count on to eat up some minutes, and I think he’s your guy.

Notables left off: Dan Boyle, Mike Green, Jay Bouwmeester, Dan Hamhuis

Just like the 7th and 8th defenceman, the next guy up depends on what role needs to be filled. If it’s an offensive specialist, you go with Boyle in my opinion, whereas Jay Bouwmeester would be the next best shutdown defenceman.

The Three Guys in Net

Carey Price

Roberto Luongo

Mike Smith

If you’re wondering why I didn’t come up with a fancy moniker for this group, it’s because I don’t think they deserve it. When you compare them to talent level of the skaters, it’s just no contest. It’s not that they’re awful, they’re just not amazing; goaltending is definitely the question mark for Team Canada. And even more so when you consider what some of the other countries have at their disposal.

USA : Jonathan Quick, Craig Anderson, Jimmy Howard, Ryan Miller, Cory Schneider

Finland : Tuuka Rask, Niklas Backstrom, Pekka Rinne if healthy, Kari Lehtonen

Sweden : Henrik Lundqvist, other guys that won’t get to play

Russia : Semyon Varlamov, Sergei Bobrovsky, Evgeni Nabokov

Come on! Even Russia has as good if not better goalies than we do. If only we could trade one of our forwards to the States for Jimmy Howard.

But since we have to play the hand we’re dealt, I think Price is the guy. He’s handled international pressure before, and he’s back to his solid self this year. Of all the goalies Canada has at their disposal, he’s the one who offers the most calming vibes. That’s a good thing as pressure rises. (On a per capita basis, I’d say the pressure of playing in Montreal is just as crazy as the pressure of playing for Canada).

I think Roberto Luongo has reestablished himself as a good NHL goalie, and given the fact that he was in net for Canada’s gold medal win in Vancouver, it’d be almost impossible not to have him on the team. Even if it’s just as the 3rd goalie to assure a veteran presence.

As for Mike Smith, he’s been consistent for a while now in Phoenix and won’t lose you any games. He just does his job and you feel like you could trust him if you absolutely needed him to start.

Notables left off : Corey Crawford, Marc-André Fleury, Cam Ward, Braden Holtby

Right now, the only other possible scenario I see would be switching Crawford for Smith. Crawford’s obviously coming off a Stanley Cup win where he arguably should have won the Conn Smythe, but I see him more as a product of Chicago’s great team defense than anything else. Case in point, just look at what Ray Emery is doing this year with the Flyers (1-3-0, 3.24 GAA, .879 sv%) as opposed to last year with the Hawks (17-1-0, 1.94 GAA, .922 sv%).

As for the others, I don’t think Holtby is proven yet, I don’t feel like Cam Ward will get the chance to play himself back from a bad season last year because of his latest injury, and I think (and hope) that Team Canada has been scared off for good (and rightly so) by Fleury’s shaky play under pressure recently.

Your thoughts?

So there you have it. I’ll probably update my predictions once more as we get closer to the announcement of the team. But this is how I see it as it stands now. Who is the one player that you think deserves to be there?

If you have specific thoughts, I encourage your feedback!

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NFL Week 10 Picks

This is something I’ve been thinking about doing for a while, and it was once again suggested to me by a friend a few days ago. I don’t consider myself an expert handicapper, but I do watch a lot of football. And anyway, the people that do consider themselves expert handicappers get it wrong just as much as they get it right, so I can’t be much worse. The whole idea of Vegas is so that no matter who you bet for, you probably won’t win much more than 50% in the long run. Some do, but most don’t.

So with that in mind, (i.e. knowing that this is the equivalent to the weatherman of sports), here are my Week 10 NFL picks. If you gamble, don’t blame me if you lose your house on a bet because of a pick I made. And if you don’t gamble, well you get to enjoy seeing me making a fool out of myself.

(Home teams are in bold).

Jacksonville Jaguars (+13) over Tennessee Titans

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the Jags (0-6) are going to get their first win of the season this year. But 13 points is too much for a 4-4 Tennessee squad that’s still trying to re-assimilate QB Jake Locker into the lineup. They only beat the Rams by 7, so I don’t see them getting much more in Jacksonville.

Green Bay Packers (+1) over Philadelphia Eagles

I’d like to know how many times the Packers have been underdogs at home since Brett Favre took over as starting QB in 1993. I’m guessing it’s not many. Green Bay has only started 3 quarterbacks since then, Aaron Rodgers and (the immortal) Matt Flynn the other two. So I guess it’s a good time to mention that Seneca Wallace is getting the start for the Pack today and becoming the 4th member of that group. There are a lot of reasons to pick Philly (4-5) here. Wallace is one of them, as is the fact that the Eagles are 4-1 on the road and are coming off a 49-20 win over Oakland in which Nick Foles had 7 (seven!) touchdown passes. But I’m sticking with the Packers (5-3) at Lambeau. Green Bay finally has a good running game, so the loss of Aaron Rodgers, though significant, is not as bad as it would be in years past.

Buffalo Bills (+3) over Pittsburgh Steelers

This has historically been a tough place for the Bills (3-6) to play, they’ve dropped 6 straight in Steel City. But these aren’t your father’s Steelers (2-7). Pittsburgh has the 2nd worst rushing defense this season, and that plays right into Buffalo’s gameplan. The Bills aren’t a bad team either. They have a pretty good defense to go along with that good rushing game, and now that they’re getting EJ Manuel back, we may see them pass better. Steelers are a mess. I’ll take the Bills.

New York Giants (-7) over Oakland Raiders

Making 2-6 Giants team a 7-point favourite seems almost criminal, but the Raiders aren’t really any better (3-6) and they’re traveling cross-country to play a 1 o’clock game, historically a tough task. Plus, the Giants are very much in the NFC East division picture. I know that sounds ridiculous, but the New York Football Giants could be just 2 games back at the end of this week. That’s how bad that division is. Oakland is basically done already, but the Giants still have a lot to fight for. That’s important. Look for a double-digit win for the G-Men.

St. Louis Rams (+9) over Indianapolis Colts

Don’t like the Rams (3-6) traveling to Indy here at all. However, the Colts (6-2) have been playing down to their opponents in a few games, only to put all the late-game pressure on Andrew Luck who, invariably, gets it done. I think we see St. Louis hanging close, possibly even leading at some point thanks to Zac Stacy in the running game, and have Andrew Luck close out the game late as he always does. But that means that 9 points are too many.

Seattle Seahawks (-4) over Atlanta Falcons 

So Seattle (8-1) is generally known as a team that fares well at home and that struggles on the road, but I’m not sure that’s fair this season. They beat Carolina by 5, beat the Texans by 3, lost to the Colts, beat the Cardinals by 12 and beat the Rams by 5 so far this year. If the Seahawks would’ve been 4-point favourites in all of those games, they’d be 3-2 in against the spread on the road. The Falcons (2-6), who are getting those 4 points, might be the worst team Seattle plays so far this season away from home. Take the favourites.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2) over Baltimore Ravens

I don’t feel great about this one, but I think this has to be a statement game for the Bengals (6-3). If they win here, all of a sudden they take a 2.5 game lead for the division title going into their bye week. I know they’ve lost some important pieces on defense because of injuries, but they’re still the best team in that division. The Ravens, on the other hand, have lost any mojo they had from their Super Bowl win. Their defense has been ok, but their offense has really struggled. I still think Joe Flacco is vastly overpaid, and that’ll be a storyline that carries for years unfortunately.

Detroit Lions (Pick ’em) over Chicago Bears

Possibly the game of the week, and it could be a shootout. Detroit (5-3) has been one of the nice turnaround stories this season after a 4-12 record last year, while the Bears (5-3) have been pretty good under new head coach Marc Trestman. Both teams can score, but neither are great on defense. (Their defenses are as close to identical as possible when it comes to yards allowed – Chicago’s 26th in the league at 381.1 yards per game, Detroit’s 25th at 381.0).

The Lions finally have some balance on offense thanks to the effective running of Reggie Bush. We all know that Calvin Johnson is a STUD at wide receiver, but the lack of a running game has hurt this team in past years. Until this year. When you think Chicago, you usually think defense, but not anymore. You can score on these guys, and I think the Lions will do a lot of it. I’ll take Detroit in a field-goal game. Worst-case scenario, you just throw it up to Megatron and hope for expect the best.

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) over Carolina Panthers

If you prefer defense over offense, the Niners-Cats game might be the game of the week for you. Carolina (5-3) has been the surprise team of the year, while San Francisco (6-2) has won 5 in a row since losing to Indianapolis at home in Week 3. And they’ve both had weak schedules in the past month.

And just like Detroit and Chicago were equally mediocre on defense, you could argue that no two defenses are as similarly good as the Panthes and 49ers. They’re 3rd and 6th respectively in yards allowed per game, 2nd and 4th respectively in points allowed per game. These are two teams that rely on a strong front-7; if you like battles in the trenches, this is your game.

In the end, though, I think Carolina gets a slight wake-up call that making the playoffs in the NFC won’t be a cake-walk. They still have a decent chance for one of the two wildcard spots, but I think San Fran is too much to handle this week. Plus, it’s never a good idea to bet against Jim Harbaugh coming off a bye.

Arizona Cardinals (-3.0) over Houston Texans

The fact that this line is this low shows how little people believe in Carson Palmer, but he has a lot more help than Case Keenum does with the Texans. Houston (2-6) is banged up and its defense isn’t close to being the same one we saw last year. Arizona (4-4), on the other hand, has a solid defense that should stifle the Texans; Andre Ellington has broken through in the backfield for the Cards, and you can run on Houston. Plus, besides an opening week loss to the Rams, Arizona’s other three losses have come to the Saints, Seahawks and 49ers (who have a combined record of 20-5). Cards aren’t terrible.

San Diego Chargers (+7) over Denver Broncos

Now, generally it would be a bad idea to bet against Peyton Manning coming off a bye, but in this case I think the Chargers (4-4) are getting too many points at home to not take them. As good as the Broncos (7-1) have been this season, they’re a mediocre 4-4 against the spread, while the Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS. And San Diego is better than its 4-4 record in my opinion. Besides a strange midnight-start loss to the Oakland Raiders, the Chargers have lost by one point to the Texans, 3 points to the Titans, and in overtime to the Redskins. Their passing offense has been solid, and if there’s one things you can do against the Broncos, it’s throw the football. I think we’ll see a shootout here, but San Diego keeps it close. I’ll take the points.

New Orleans Saints (-7) over Dallas Cowboys

We’ve seen this before. Drew Brees, on primetime, against an opponent that’s beginning to feel good about themselves, and then BAM! Last time it was a 38-17 shallacking of the Dolphins, and I see a similar script against the Cowboys. Keep in mind that Dallas (5-4) has yet to beat a winning team this season. They have been able to keep those games close, and that’s thanks to their ability to pass, but New Orleans (6-2) defense is almost as good as its offense. The Boys won’t have the same ease of throwing the ball as they have in other losses, and for that I think this game gets out of hand late. WHO DAT NATION!

Tampa Bay Buccanneers (+.2.5) Miami Dolphins

It’s the We’re-A-Mess Bowl! Tampa Bay (0-7) is still winless following a crushing overtime loss to the Seahawks, while Miami (4-4) is dealing with the whole Richie Icognito situation. I’m not sure how the Bucs have free-fallen so quickly, but it begs the question…what has been more detrimental to Tampa’s locker room this season, head coach Greg Schiano or the MRSA staph infection outbreak? Either way, Tampa Bay’s still looking for its first win….and I think it comes tomorrow night! Because, (speaking of messy locker rooms), the Dolphins have been rocked by the Icognito thing and I think the distractions are too strong this week.

There you have it. I’ll update my record as we move along, check back next week (probably Friday) for Week 11 picks.