The 1 to 16 Format : Redesigning the Playoffs for the NHL and the NBA

If you’ve been following pro sports pretty closely this year, you probably noticed one flagrant similarity between the NHL and the NBA; in both cases, the Western conference was significantly stronger than the Eastern conference. Both the LA Kings and San Antonio Spurs cruised to a title in 5 games against Eastern conference opponents in their respective championship series.

In both leagues, the dominance came from opening night through the final buzzer. In the NHL, the Western conference was almost 6 points or 3 full wins better per team than the East was during the regular season. In the NBA, the West was nearly 8 wins better per team that the East. At 48-34, the Phoenix Suns finished 9th in the East and failed to make the playoffs; they would have been tied for 3rd in the East. Or, to flip the scenario, with the same record, the Toronto Raptors (48-34) would not have made the playoffs in the West.

And this #WestIsBest trend isn’t new – it’s been like this for quite some time now in both leagues. Since Michael Jordan left the Bulls for good in 1999, the NBA’s West teams have been, on average, more than 4 wins per season better than the East teams in the regular season (43.03 wins per season for the West, 38.86 for the East). That’s substantial.

How substantial? Using ESPN’s Estimated Wins Added metric (that measures a player’s value to his team), a difference of 4 wins per year would be like having 2013-2014 Paul George instead of 2013-2014 Rudy Gay at small forward for 15 consecutive years. Imagine that Raptors fans. Either way you look at it, it’s dominance. The East only had one season in the past 15 years with a better combined record than the West, and that was in 2009 (by a fairly small margin, 41.4 average wins to 40.6). The West has won 10 of the 15 championships.

It’s a similar picture in the NHL, where the dominance hasn’t been as imposing as the NBA, but even more consistent in the regular season. In the same 15-year span (since the loser point became a thing in 2000), the West has been better than the East in every single season. West teams have racked up, on average, about 2.5 points more per season than the East. But interestingly enough, the Stanley Cups in that stretch only slightly favour the West, 8-7.

Which brings me to my biggest issue, which is that we need to start rewarding regular season success properly : by having the 16 best teams in the playoffs, regardless of the conference, with the matchups as 1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, and so on.

So many reasons to go to this format:

1. It places more importance on the regular season in its entirety. Because home ice and overall seeding are at a premium, teams can’t coast through the year in an easier conference (Pittsburgh Penguins and Miami Heat, we’re looking at you). The Pens were able to rest guys at the end of the season because they had the 2nd seeded pretty much locked in for the final month. But with 1 through 16 seeding, they would’ve had the 5th seed, which means they were only guaranteed home ice for the first round. Furthermore, all inter-conference games become more meaningful because of the playoff race. That outdoor game at Wrigley Field this year between Chicago and Pittsburgh? Could’ve been a mammoth game in the playoff race in this scenario (the Pens finished just 2 points ahead of the Hawks in league standings). Instead, it was kind of a letdown.
2. Better odds at great late-playoff matchups. You always get the chance of having the two best teams facing off in the championship series (Stanley Cup Final or NBA Finals) regardless of their conference. Looking back at this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, it’s clear now that the “real” championship series was Chicago-LA. Because the West was that much stronger, the winner of the conference finals was pretty much a lock to win it all. And sure, we may not have had Chicago against Los Angeles in the Cup Finals under this structure, but we probably would have had 2 West teams, which would’ve have been the better hockey matchup.
3. More parity (or at least a fairer draft structure). Here’s where things get interesting, and it’s something we almost never consider. (I’m not taking any credit for this; I heard it from San Antonio Spurs General Manager RC Buford, a man who knows a thing or two about winning in a tough conference, on Grantland’s Lowe Post Podcast). Because the West has been stronger for a while now (in both the NHL and NBA), the teams that are missing the playoffs in the West are usually stronger than those missing in the East. Let’s use the Phoenix Suns as the example again. With 48 wins, the Suns really deserved to make the playoffs, but they didn’t because of their strong conference. In finishing out the playoffs, the Suns now get to draft 14th overall. The Raptors on the other hand, who had the same number of wins as Phoenix (but who were 3rd thanks to a poor conference and division), get the 20th pick. In other words, because the West is so strong, the teams that are missing the playoffs are actually getting to pick higher (and getting better) than they should be. Conversely, the East teams are not only weaker to begin with, they are getting even weaker by drafting from a less favourable position. It’s a vicious cycle that has no end in sight. With 1 through 16 seeding, that issue won’t exist anymore.
4. The opportunity for new rivalries. Heated rivalries are spawned through playoff battles. Red Wings-Avalanche, Bulls-Knicks, Spurs-Lakers, Habs-Bruins, Red Sox-Yankees, and so on. The Leafs and Habs are one of the oldest, but nowadays the rivalry isn’t as strong because they haven’t met in the playoffs since 1979. As it stands right now, there’s a very slim chance that, let’s say, Boston-Chicago would develop a strong (modern) rivalry. But had they met 4 or 5 times in a row in the playoffs, maybe they would have. Wouldn’t you like to see it anyway? Same with guys being traded away; we probably won’t get to see much of anything develop with Jason Spezza’s new team (whenever that comes) and the Senators, but if they could meet in the playoffs, it’d be so much fun. Just look at what this year’s matchups would have been in the first round of the NHL playoffs.

• 1. Boston Bruins vs. 16. Dallas Stars
• 2. Anaheim Ducks vs. 15. Detroit Red Wings
• 3. Colorado Avalanche vs. 14. Columbus Blue Jackets
• 4. St. Louis Blues vs. 13. Philadelphia Flyers
• 5. San Jose Sharks vs. 12. New York Rangers
• 6. Pittsburgh Penguins vs. 11. Minnesota Wild
• 7. Chicago Blackhawks vs. 10. Los Angeles Kings
• 8. Tampa Bay Lightning vs. 9. Montreal Canadiens

Some pretty cool stuff there, including the Tyler Seguin dynamic between the Bruins and Stars, the Tomas Hertl – Joe Thornton – 4 goals thing between the Sharks and Rangers, and of course the Hawks and Kings series (that would’ve come too soon in this case). And I want to think that St. Louis-Philadelphia could be a great matchup, with lots of bad blood, but we may never get to see it under the current format.

In the NBA, it looks like this

• 1. San Antonio Spurs vs. 16. Charlotte Bobcats
• 2. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 15. Brooklyn Nets
• 3. Los Angeles Clippers vs. 14. Washington Wizards
• 4. Indiana Pacers vs. 13. Phoenix Suns
• 5. Miami Heat vs. 12. Chicago Bulls
• 6. Houston Rockets vs. 11. Toronto Raptors
• 7. Portland Trail Blazers vs. 10. Dallas Mavericks
• 8. Golden State Warriors vs. 9. Memphis Grizzlies

There may not be as many juicy matchups in the first round, but how about LeBron James and the Miami Heat needing to go through (potentially) the Bulls, Pacers, Thunder and Spurs to have a chance at a 3rd straight title (instead of the Bobcats and Nets in the first two rounds)? All the great matchups. What you lose in the first round, you gain in the next three.

It’s not perfect. Nothing is. This format is used in the QMJHL, and generally speaking, the first two rounds are a joke. Lots of sweeps. And although I can imagine the first rounds being less anticlimactic under this format as opposed to what they are now, I don’t think we’d see that level of unbalanced play at the pro level. The difference between best and worst playoff teams in the pros, especially the NHL (cough LA Kings 2012 coiugh) isn’t as significant as it is in junior. You’d still have competitive series.

And some people will point out that it would be unfair if we went to that current format with the current scheduling because you’d play some teams more than others, but I think it’s the opposite. The Phoenix Suns played the Western conference more than the teams in the East did, and they still wound up with as good of a record (or better) than all but 2 teams in the East. If anything, the unbalanced schedule makes it even more obvious that we need to go to this format. I’m way more impressed by the Suns 48-34 record than the Raptors or Bulls 48-34 record.

Again, it’s all about rewarding success and putting a better premium on the regular season. And as it stands right now, we’re not doing it properly.

The Resurgent Raptors

At the start of the season, I was the biggest enthusiast of the “Raptors should tank” movement. Just check the article I wrote less than 5 months ago, where I suggested the Raptors should basically do everything besides selling their soul in order to land a blue-chip prospect in the upcoming draft (specifically Andrew Wiggins).

But things change. And the dumbest thing for me to do would be to blindly stick to my guns without adapting to said changes. It’s not so much “jumping on the bandwagon” as it is a re-evaluation of the landscape, one now extremely favourable for the Raptors.

Maybe most experts didn’t expect Toronto to be 20-18 midway through January, but most of them didn’t see the Nets and Knicks start so poorly either. The Raptors have been given a grand opportunity to actually compete in the Eastern Conference, and they now have no reasonable choice but to pursue a playoff spot.

The current landscape

Let’s start with a look at the Eastern Conference itself, where the Raptors are currently third, a conference where only two teams (Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers) would currently be in a playoff position if they held the same record in the West.

1. Indiana Pacers (31-7)
2. Miami Heat (28-11)
3. Toronto Raptors (20-18)
4. Atlanta Hawks (20-19)
5. Washington Wizards (19-19)
6. Chicago Bulls (18-20)
7. Brooklyn Nets (16-22)
8. Charlotte Bobcats (17-24)
9. Detroit Pistons (16-23)
10. Cleveland Cavaliers (15-25)
11. New York Knicks (15-25)
12. Boston Celtics (14-27)
13. Philadelphia 76ers (13-26)
14. Orlando Magic (10-30)
15. Milwaukee Bucks (7-31)

Kind of sad. Only 5 teams are .500 or better. Of those 10 teams under .500, at least four of them are undoubtedly going for a high draft pick next year (Milwaukee, Orlando, Philadelphia, Boston) and three more might be going in the same direction depending on how things go in the next few weeks (Charlotte, Cleveland, and Chicago because of the Derrick Rose injury). Realistically, there aren’t any more than 10 teams trying to make the playoffs.

The only wrinkle for the Raptors might be that division rivals Brooklyn and New York, both of whom have had disappointing starts to the season to say the least, have no reason to tank because neither has a first round draft pick in 2014. There’s no doubt these two will be pushing Toronto all year, especially given the fact that neither is scared to spend money to make the necessary moves.

But as of right now, Toronto has clearly been better than both New York teams. It’s not just about the records, it’s about their play on the court. Sure, the Knicks or Nets might make a run, but who says the Raptors have hit their full stride either?  Toronto has had the toughest strength of schedule of any Eastern Conference team at .520 (Brooklyn is next at .509).

With 20 wins, the Raps are already too far behind on the “tank” game to catch up. At this point, it’s actually easier to make the playoffs than to get a high draft pick. If they try to tank, they’ll probably end up finishing 10th or 11th at worst, which is exactly what they wanted to avoid in the first place.

A reinvigorated team 

Since trading Rudy Gay on December 7th, the Raptors are 14-6, the best record in the Eastern Conference in that span. And that’s no coincidence. When you have a player shooting 38% while hoisting up 25+ shots per game, that can only have a negative effect on the team. It’s addition by subtraction. Not to mention that Toronto acquired four NBA-level depth players in John Salmons, Greivis Vasquez, Patrick Patterson, and Chuck Hayes, who give a much-needed boost to the team’s depth.

But more than that, the Raptors are playing like a team now. You never want to blame one player for the failure of an entire team, but it’s hard not to put two and two together in this case.The ball isn’t sticking like it did when Gay was with the team. Part of it might have been that players felt they could delegate to him and now have had to step up their game, part of it was that he was a redundancy and got in the way of other swing players like DeMar DeRozan and Terrence Ross.

Just look at this ball movement. Sure, it’s again the Bucks, but rarely did you ever see this with Rudy Gay on the floor.

Instead, you saw this.

Yup, that’s DeRozan doing his best Bo Jackson impersonation after Rudy Gay refuses to hand him the ball on the fast break.

The players know it too. In an interview with Zach Lowe of Grantland, DeMar DeRozan clearly confirmed what everyone knows has changed since the trade. “The ball is just constantly moving,” DeRozan says. “We don’t care who scores, or who shoots the ball. Masai [Ujiri, the team’s GM] made the best decision for us to win. You hate to see a close friend go, but he made a good decision. It’s paying off now.”

DeRozan himself has seen his assists per game jump from 2.7 to 4.6, but the biggest benefactor from the trade has been Kyle Lowry. Look at his average stats before and after the Gay trade.

BG : 14.3 points, 6.6 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 42.3% FG, 36.9% 3PT

AG : 17.9 points, 8.1 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 44.3% FG, 43.9% 3PT

Everything’s gone up. And that’s interesting, because figuring out what to do with Kyle Lowry is Masai Ujiri’s biggest decision moving towards the deadline. Speaking of…

The not-so-bleak outlook

Masai Ujiri has a really tough decision on his hands with the Lowry situation. There’s no doubt that he’s been a key factor in Toronto’s resurgence, to the point where it’ll be difficult to sell the fans on trading him now. If the Raps were truly committed to the tank (which the Rudy Gay trade was actually supposed to initiate), they should have dealt him right after the Gay trade to assure that this team would not get that much better. But a 14-6 record since has dictated that this team can (and should) compete for one of the top four seeds in the East.

That being said, there’s this thing called the future that MLSE has had a hard time understanding for a while now, and it would be refreshing to see it be addressed. Lowry is an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, and although he’s said he’s open to resigning with the team, he certainly hasn’t committed to resigning either. And this team can’t afford to let this guy walk. We’ve seen that story too often.

I think the Raptors need to make a push to resign him, even if they need to give him extended term. Some people might say he’s not an elite point guard, and that might me true, but that doesn’t mean you can’t win an NBA championship without one (might be getting ahead of ourselves, but that’s obviously the endgame here). Let’s just look at the starting point guards on the 5 last championship rosters.

• 2013 – Miami Heat – Mario Chalmers
• 2012 – Miami Heat – Mario Chalmers
• 2011 – Dallas Mavericks – Jason Kidd/Jason Terry/Jose Barea
• 2010 – Los Angeles Lakers – Derek Fisher
• 2009 – Los Angeles Lakers – Derek Fisher

None of those are elite point guard (Kidd and Terry were well past their time). What those teams did have was at least one superstar (LeBron and Wade for Miami, Nowitzki for Dallas, Kobe for Los Angeles). You can certainly argue that the Raptors don’t have a superstar, but who knows what DeRozan or (probably more likely) Valanciunas can turn into? Either way, Lowry has a good combination of passing ability, three point shooting and defense that makes him very useful for a potential championship team. Try to keep him.

For the first time in years, the Raps future doesn’t necessarily look bleak. DeRozan and Valanciunas look to be core pieces to build on. If they can get Lowry signed, they might be a few pieces away from a legitimate contender, at least for the next few years while Eastern Conference teams are still recovering from this year’s tank effort.

(And say what you want about him, but Drake is a legitimate asset for MLSE and the Toronto Raptors. If you don’t believe me, just ask newly acquired TFC striker Jermaine “Don’t Call Me Willem” Defoe how impactful Drake’s influence can be. He’s a mega-star in the hip-hop world, a world oft frequented by the men of basketball. I wouldn’t be surprised if he can lure a couple free agents to town).

Go for the playoffs. Try to make a run. God knows the franchise could use a playoff series win, having only one in its 19-year existence. All of a sudden, maybe luring free agents to town could become a bit easier. And instead of guys leaving to go elsewhere, they’d leave their current teams to come to Toronto.

Wouldn’t that be refreshing.