Exactly three months from today, Team Canada’s Olympic hockey team will open its tournament schedule in Sochi against Norway. Three months. That’s not a lot of time, especially if you’re Steven Stamkos. In case you haven’t heard (somehow), Stamkos suffered a broken right tibia in Monday’s game against the Bruins. Absolute best case scenario for his return? Three months.
First, a moment of sadness
Before I get any further, I just need to express how truly upset I am by the Stamkos injury. (In case you haven’t seen it, here it is).
And it’s not even a selfish “we need him for Team Canada” thing. I feel bad for the player. He didn’t get to play in Vancouver because the management group felt he was still too inexperienced, and now this. Barring an impressive comeback, it looks like he’ll need to wait another 4 years to make his Olympic debut. (Mike Babcock has already said that they’ll put Stamkos on the roster and that they’ll replace him if need be, but it looks like they will in fact need to replace him. It seems unlikely that Stammer would play in Sochi).
I also feel bad for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who were rolling at 12-5-0 before this injury and will be put to an enormous test without its best player. As Greg Wyshinski pointed out in his Puck Daddy Blog, Stamkos is kind of an important part of Tampa’s offense. “The Lightning have 56 goals on the season and Stamkos has 23 points, meaning he’s participating on the scoresheet on 41 percent of the Bolts’ tallies. He scored 10 of the Lightning’s 32 even strength goals.”
Ouch. It’s going to be a difficult road for the Lightning without Stamkos, a team who I had correctly predicted to make a jump this season (hey, I make enough bad calls, I may as well pat my shoulder for the few good ones).
Last, and certainly not least, I’m upset for the league as a whole who just lost one of its best ambassadors, one of its most marketable players and overall one of its best players. Everyone benefits from having a guy like Steven Stamkos in the NHL: a stand-up, hard-working superstar who represents everything that is good about the game of hockey.
Now, onto some business
It’s never a perfect science to predict Team Canada’s team because you never know exactly what Steve Yzerman, Mike Babcock and the gang are thinking in picking the team (besides the obvious fact that the Stamkos injury is a huge downer). But this three month mark represents a good time to look ahead; we’ve seen a decent amount of the season to gauge how guys are playing, and some guys seem to have successfully played their way on (Duchene) or off (Giroux?) the team already.
As I write this, keep in mind that I’m trying to make a team, not just pick the 14 best fowards, 8 best defenceman and 3 best goalies available. That’s exactly what Yzerman did in 2010, and that’s what he’ll do again. This is a team, not a bunch of individuals. (And I make this hypothetical team under the assumption that Steven Stamkos will not be in Sochi. I’d rather prepare for the worst case and have a pleasant surprise than vice versa). So, without further ado…
The Fantastic Fourteen
John Tavares – Sidney Crosby – Chris Kunitz
Matt Duchene – Claude Giroux – Logan Couture
Taylor Hall – Ryan Getzlaf – Corey Perry
Jonathan Toews – Patrice Bergeron – Eric Staal
Martin St. Louis – Rick Nash
Obviously this team is loaded up front, even (sadly) without Stamkos. No surprise that Sidney Crosby is the top line centre, he’s probably the captain too. But already I hear you disagreeing with the rest of that first combo. Thing is, I can’t deny the chemistry between Crosby and Kunitz. These guys are getting it done together against the best players in the NHL, what’s crazy about them doing it against the best players in the world? If you’re bringing on Kunitz, it’s obviously to play with Sid. Throw another superstar in Tavares on that trio, and you have a line that can score and defend. That’s what you need (from top to bottom really).
The second line is the kid/speed line. Duchene has been unreal this season; he’s earned his spot on the team in my opinion. Couture has taken over as “the guy” in San Jose and I think he’s ready for this stage. Giroux is the big question mark here. I don’t think he’s played his way off the team just yet, but he’s definitely not a lock anymore. I don’t think Team Canada liked the fact that he didn’t go to their orientation camp in August, either, and that might hurt his chances even more. But I still think he turns his game around and becomes an important member of this team; he remains incredibly skilled and has the speed and talent to play on the bigger ice surface.. If you have him on the team, you don’t play him on the fourth line either.
The third line is the energy line, and by energy I mean big, strong and fast players that’ll run over the other team to score. Perry and Getzlaf are almost a given to play together, and I think Hall fits well with those two. I think he’s another player who’s on the bubble here though. Jamie Benn would be an equally nice fit in this spot.
Fourth line is obviously the checking line, centered by one of the best two-way forwards in the game in Bergeron. I’ve heard some people question whether he deserves to be on the team, but I think he’s a lock. Same with Toews. You could argue that Toews should go higher in the depth chart, and I do agree that he’ll get more than 4th line minutes on his team. But I see him and Bergeron getting a lot of minutes late in games together, so I may as well put them on the same line now. Eric Staal in a size/leadership role is a good third member on that line.
As for my two extras, I need to see more from Nash to put him higher on the depth chart. He’s not the same dominant player that he once was (obviously not right now because he’s recovering from injury, but even last year). But if he’s healthy, you have to put him on the team because he’s a guy you can play anywhere and has that gold-medal experience from 2010. St. Louis is such a good player offensively that I think it would be a mistake to leave him off the team. Plus, I think Steve Yzerman can’t do without bringing his guy on the team.
Notables left off : Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza, Andrew Ladd, Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Jordan Eberle, Patrick Sharp, James Neal, Milan Lucic.
Like I said, so much talent in the forward group; I could’ve went on and on. When you get down to this group, it’s all about roles as far as how they can play their way onto the team. Guys like Benn, Spezza, Eberle and Neal are the next best offensive threats, while Ladd, Carter and Richards would be considered for more of a two-way role. And Lucic would be the “power forward” type if that’s what they’re looking for. Of this group, I’d say Benn is the closest to being on the team (and still has time to play his way on it), while Sharp would be my next pick.
The Elite Eight
Drew Doughty – Shea Weber
Duncan Keith – Brent Seabrook
P.K. Subban – Alex Pietrangelo
Kris Letang/Dion Phaneuf
The defense corps is a little bit easier to select, and what a solid group of 2-way defenceman it is. You can play just about any one of these guys on the powerplay or the penalty kill, just as you would even strength.
Doughty and Weber are the two studs. You want to play them against the opposing team’s best players. And they can shoot too. Remember this? Yup, that’s Shea Weber shooting through a hockey net.
Keith and Seabrook are almost a package deal in my opinion. They’re such a good pairing with the Hawks, why not benefit from that? No other country has the opportunity of sending such an outstanding top-line pairing together; we may as well take advantage of it. They can neutralize the best offensive players in the world, and their speed and passing ability will help the transition game.
Subban and Pietrangelo are the “budding superstar” duo. I’d have them out there as much as possible on offensive zone starts. Give me some P.K. one-timers all-day long.
Letang and Phaneuf are my two extras. In my mind, you want one offensive specialist and one guy that can eat up minutes. If something were to happen to Subban, Letang’s your guy on the powerplay (and may be that guy for the second PP). And say what you will about Phaneuf, but he’s a plus-player who consistently plays 25+ minutes against the best guys on the other team. Again, if you get an injury to an important defenceman, you want to have a guy that you can count on to eat up some minutes, and I think he’s your guy.
Notables left off: Dan Boyle, Mike Green, Jay Bouwmeester, Dan Hamhuis
Just like the 7th and 8th defenceman, the next guy up depends on what role needs to be filled. If it’s an offensive specialist, you go with Boyle in my opinion, whereas Jay Bouwmeester would be the next best shutdown defenceman.
The Three Guys in Net
Carey Price
Roberto Luongo
Mike Smith
If you’re wondering why I didn’t come up with a fancy moniker for this group, it’s because I don’t think they deserve it. When you compare them to talent level of the skaters, it’s just no contest. It’s not that they’re awful, they’re just not amazing; goaltending is definitely the question mark for Team Canada. And even more so when you consider what some of the other countries have at their disposal.
USA : Jonathan Quick, Craig Anderson, Jimmy Howard, Ryan Miller, Cory Schneider
Finland : Tuuka Rask, Niklas Backstrom, Pekka Rinne if healthy, Kari Lehtonen
Sweden : Henrik Lundqvist, other guys that won’t get to play
Russia : Semyon Varlamov, Sergei Bobrovsky, Evgeni Nabokov
Come on! Even Russia has as good if not better goalies than we do. If only we could trade one of our forwards to the States for Jimmy Howard.
But since we have to play the hand we’re dealt, I think Price is the guy. He’s handled international pressure before, and he’s back to his solid self this year. Of all the goalies Canada has at their disposal, he’s the one who offers the most calming vibes. That’s a good thing as pressure rises. (On a per capita basis, I’d say the pressure of playing in Montreal is just as crazy as the pressure of playing for Canada).
I think Roberto Luongo has reestablished himself as a good NHL goalie, and given the fact that he was in net for Canada’s gold medal win in Vancouver, it’d be almost impossible not to have him on the team. Even if it’s just as the 3rd goalie to assure a veteran presence.
As for Mike Smith, he’s been consistent for a while now in Phoenix and won’t lose you any games. He just does his job and you feel like you could trust him if you absolutely needed him to start.
Notables left off : Corey Crawford, Marc-André Fleury, Cam Ward, Braden Holtby
Right now, the only other possible scenario I see would be switching Crawford for Smith. Crawford’s obviously coming off a Stanley Cup win where he arguably should have won the Conn Smythe, but I see him more as a product of Chicago’s great team defense than anything else. Case in point, just look at what Ray Emery is doing this year with the Flyers (1-3-0, 3.24 GAA, .879 sv%) as opposed to last year with the Hawks (17-1-0, 1.94 GAA, .922 sv%).
As for the others, I don’t think Holtby is proven yet, I don’t feel like Cam Ward will get the chance to play himself back from a bad season last year because of his latest injury, and I think (and hope) that Team Canada has been scared off for good (and rightly so) by Fleury’s shaky play under pressure recently.
Your thoughts?
So there you have it. I’ll probably update my predictions once more as we get closer to the announcement of the team. But this is how I see it as it stands now. Who is the one player that you think deserves to be there?
If you have specific thoughts, I encourage your feedback!
FANTASTIC FORE 