Yay advanced stats!
It’s that time again. With the NHL regular season approaching the end, I thought it was a good time to once again update my Forward Production Rating (FPR) rankings using the formula I created.
As a refresher, I’ll go through the formula and its significance, but first, some reminders on the notion of FPR in general.
– This is a measure of production, not value. I’m not trying to solve the “best player in the NHL” debate – that would be impossible anyway considering I’m only using forwards. I’m not even trying to solve the “best forward in the NHL” debate. This simply measures what forwards have been most productive this season (according to the formula).
– All stats come from behindthenet.ca (updated as of Saturday morning).and they’re all 5 on 5 stats. It’s not that special teams aren’t important, it’s that they don’t necessarily reflect the true production (depending on situational context, usage, etc). Again, history shows that teams with the most even strength scoring chances are usually most sucessful.
Now, onto the formula itself (here’s to hoping one day I won’t need to show and explain it).
Let’s go with Tyler Seguin as the example for the formula. Starting with…
– FPR : Forward Production Rating.
– TOIgame : The amount of 5 on 5 time a forward plays per 60 minutes. For Seguin this season, that’s 14.69 minutes. That number is multiplied by 0.1 and becomes the time on ice factor for the rest of the formula.
– Rel.Corsi : Corsi measures how many more shot attempts (including blocked and missed shots) a team has then the opponent while a player is on the ice as opposed to when he’s off. “Relative” Corsi takes into account the quality of that player’s competition while he’s playing. Tyler Seguin’s Relative Corsi this season is 7.1 (a decent rating). Just like time on ice, Relative Corsi is multiplied by 0.1 for this formula. I’ll refer to this as the Relative Corsi factor.
P60mins : The average amount of points a player scores at 5 on 5 for every 60 minutes played. This season, Tyler Seguin is scoring at a staggering rate of 6.2 points per 60 minutes of 5 on 5 play (second most out of the forwards ranked). I multiply this value by 2, which becomes the points factor.
PlusMinusDifferential60mins : It’s the differential between a team’s 5 on 5 plus-minus while a player is on the ice and the team’s 5 on 5 plus-minus while the player is off the ice, averaged out to 60 minutes. Explained practically, when Seguin is on the ice, the Stars are an average of +1.12 per 60 minutes; when he’s off the ice, they average -0.53 per 60 minutes. In other words, Dallas is actually 1.65 goals better per 60 minutes when Seguin is on the ice as opposed to when he isn’t.
Finally, Relative Corsi factor, the points factor and the Plus Minus Differential are all added together and then multiplied as a whole by the time on ice factor. For Seguin, it turns into
FPR=1.469(0.71+6.2+1.65)
FPR = 12.57
Filters
So where does that place Seguin? Well first, let me note that I only included forwards that have played at least 40 games this season and that have recorded at least an average of 10 minutes of 5 on 5 per 60 minutes. Sorry Greg McKegg of the Leafs (and mainly the Marlies), who leads the league in Corsi at 48.43 (with one NHL game played this year). Kind of impressive for having played on a team who has awful possession stats.
Overall, 300 forwards were ranked and rated. Here’s the top-25.
- Sidney Crosby – 14.13
- Joe Thornton – 12.86
- Tyler Seguin – 12.57
- Jamie Benn – 12.57
- Henrik Zetterberg – 12.49
- Ryan Getzlaf – 12.26
- Chris Kunitz – 12.25
- Jaromir Jagr – 11.78
- Evgeni Malkin – 11.73
- Kyle Okposo – 11.32
- Corey Perry – 11.19
- Patrice Bergeron – 11.13
- James Neal – 11.02
- Henrik Sedin – 10.72
- Claude Giroux – 10.66
- Alexander Semin – 10.58
- Gabriel Landeskog – 10.55
- Jiri Hudler – 10.54
- Vladimir Tarasenko – 10.47
- Joe Pavelksi – 10.21
- Taylor Hall – 10.18
- Jonathan Toews – 10.13
- Phil Kessel – 10.10
- Daniel Sedin – 9.93
- Brad Marchand – 9.90
If you’ve been following along, you won’t be surprised with number one. Crosby has led the scoring race basically from start to finish, is solid defensively and generates a lot of chances at even strength. The gap between Crosby and Thornton is the biggest gap between any two consecutively ranked players. Ladies and gentleman, Sidney Crosby, your 2013-2014 NHL MVP.
Now speaking of Thornton, he’s put together a solid few months to climb to second. One of the most interesting things about this top-25 for me is the amount of players who were didn’t crack their respective Olympic teams. Starting with Canada, you have Thornton (2), Seguin (3), Neal (13), Giroux (15), Hall (21) and even Marchand (25). Now, in hindsight, it’s kind of difficult to criticize Team Canada for their roster selection, because they have a shiny medal that’ll end any discussion. But the same can’t be said for the US with Okposo (10),or the Czech Republic with Hudler (18). Food for thought.
I said this last time, and I’ll say it again. This list shows the importance of the quality of linemates. None more apparent then Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn who have an identical rating, tied for the third best. In fact, of the top-14, only Henrik Zetterberg, Jaromir Jagr, and Kyle Okposo don’t have a linemate in the top-25.
Sticking with trends, almost half (12) of the 25 forwards on this list are centers, including the top-3 and 7 of the top-10. Not really a surprise, because centers generally have more points (they touch the puck more often), so they have that advantage over wingers all things considered equal. Also, 8 of the top-25 are captains.
Another fun thing about this list is that it makes us recognize players who are having really good years but are flying under the radar. That includes those who are doing well despite playing on supbar teams (Jaromir Jagr, Kyle Okposo, Alexander Semin, Jiri Hudler, Taylor Hall), and those who don’t necessarily get as much exposure because they play out west (Vladimir Tarasenko, Gabriel Landeskog).
Speaking of Landeskog and exposure, if you haven’t seen this, well, I’m sorry ahead of time…(shout out to Puck Daddy for the find).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOLLyHz4-Z8
The premise of the video is neat, but Landeskog’s mirror shots are just creepy.
Anyway. That’s that. I’ll do this once more at the end of the season, and hopefully another few during the playoffs.
If anyone is geeky enough like me and wants the entire list of all 300 forwards, send me an email (n_dentremont16@hotmail.com).
FANTASTIC FORE 