What We’ve Learnt From the First Month of the NFL Season

Peyton Manning is a good QB, but we already knew that. So what have we actually learnt from the first month of the NFL season?

We’ve heard it before : “it’s not a marathon, it’s a sprint”. Trying to make affirmative statements after a few weeks of NFL action is usually misguided; case in point, the Arizona Cardinals were 4-0 after Week 4 last year before coming down to earth (very hard) to eventually finish 5-11.

That being said, 4 games (or 3, or 5 in a few cases) is still a reasonable sample in football given the fact that teams only have 16 games to put it together for the playoffs. You can’t make the playoffs after 4 weeks, but you can ruin your chances if you dig yourself a big hole, just like the 0-4 teams have done. NFL teams tend to evaluate their outlook after every month, so I’m going to do the same.

For this exercise, I’m looking at what we’ve learnt from every NFL team after the first month. They can’t be things we (should) already know. We haven’t learnt that Peyton Manning is a good QB after 4 weeks because we already knew that. We didn’t learn that the Jaguars are a bad football team because we already knew that too. Maybe we didn’t know that Manning would do this well or that Jacksonville would do this badly, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone.

So with that in mind, here is one thing we’ve learnt from all 32 NFL teams thus far (I’ll also use the opportunity to give my updated Power Rankings).

1. Denver Broncos (4-0) 

Losing Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil (among others) isn’t as disastrous as it might’ve been. It definitely helps when your quarterback has thrown a record 16 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the first month, but the Broncos defense is doing just fine without last year’s standouts Elvis Dumervil (who signed with the Ravens as a free agent) and Von Miller (who is serving a 6-game suspension). The defense has looked good and should get even better when Miller comes back. Again, it helps when you don’t spend too much time on the field.

2. Seattle Seahawks (4-0)

The Seahawks play in the world’s loudest stadium atmosphere. We already knew it was loud, but we weren’t sure if it was the loudest. But now we do. Guinness measured the noise in Seattle’s September 15th game against San Francisco at a record-breaking peak level of 136.6 decibels. You can’t blame the fans for being excited; Seattle has a dominant defense that is already creating Super Bowl buzz.

3. New Orleans Saints (4-0)

The Saints can play defense, too. We know Drew Brees and that New Orleans offense is deadly, but last year the defense was deadly too, deadly as in lock them up because they’ll murder any chance the Saints have of making the playoffs. But now that they’ve brought back Sean Payton from his questionable suspension and that they’ve brought in defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, the Saints are becoming a complete team. They haven’t allowed more than 17 points this year after allowing the second-most points per game last season (28.4).

4. New England Patriots (4-0)

Tom Brady can’t turn everything into gold immediately. Nobody doubts the abilities of Terrific Tom, but this is a tall task, even for him. No Gronk, no Hernandez, no Amendola. He’s led his team to an undefeated start, but that includes a nail-biting, last-minute come-from-behind win against Buffalo and a sloppy (apparently frustrating) victory against the Jets. He’s already starting to figure out, as exemplified by his excellence this past Sunday against Atlanta, but it’s not going to be easy for these Patriots.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)

Andy Reid is still a good coach. The players kind of gave up on him in Philly, but Andy Reid can still coach, and he’s turned the Chiefs around on a dime. Alex Smith deserves some credit too at QB, but Reid has Kansas City playing well on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs have outscored opponents 102-41 and have already doubled last year’s win total.

6. Miami Dolphins (3-1)

Ryan Tannehill might actually be the answer at QB for Miami. They added some pieces to help Tannehill out, and so far he has generally delivered. He may be one of the less talked-about sophomore QBs, but he has progressed from last year. His completion percentage is up from 58.3% in 2012 to 65.5% so far this year, good for 8th-best in the NFL. He’s still prone to making a few bad decisions here and there, but with that pretty good defense, it looks like he’ll be good enough to get Miami in (or close to) the playoffs.

7. Chicago Bears (3-1)

Marc Trestman can coach in the NFL too. He’s been good for QB Jay Cutler and the Bears are looking pretty good because of it. The defense is still boss at creating turnovers, and now Trestman has been able to get the offense to translate some of those TO’s into points. Second-most points, to be exact (127).

8. Detroit Lions (3-1)

The Lions are a competitive team when they have an actual running game. Playing in 3 of the 4 games this season, running back Reggie Bush is 6th in the NFL with 84.7 rush yards per game. The Lions have averaged 31.6 points in those three games. Add in that already powerful pass offense with a rejuvenated defense, and Detroit is already making some noise in the NFC North.

9. San Francisco 49ers (2-2)

Colin Kaepernick doesn’t have everything figured out just yet. “What’s that you say? Who? Oh Alex Smith? Yeah, no he’s gone to the Chiefs now.” I think San Francisco will figure it out. The defense is too good, the offensive line is too powerful and Colin Kaepernick is too skilled to let this season crash and burn. But seeing back-to-back weak performances from Kaep in crazy-loud Seattle and then at home to the Colts must’ve been slightly unsettling for the 49ers.

10. Indianapolis Colts (3-1) 

The Colts are serious about contending this year. Trading for former 3rd overall pick Trent Richardson is an affirmation that Indy thinks its a legit playoff contender. They’re kind of a weird team: they beat the Raiders, lost at home to the Dolphins, caught the 49ers on a weird Aldon Smith week to stun them in San Fran, and then destroyed the Jaguars (who hasn’t). But now it gets tougher though. Of their next 11 games, 9 are against teams with records of 2-2 or better.

11. Tennessee Titans (3-1) 

Jake Locker is a legit #1 starter in the NFL. Unfortunately, he’s out for 4-6 weeks with a hip injury. But before his injury, he was able to post a 62.2% completion rating, a 99.0 QB rating, and is the only QB besides Peyton Manning to have thrown at least 5 TD’s an no interceptions. We’ll see how their pretty good defense will hold up in his absence.

12. Houston Texans (2-2)

Matt Schaub might be bad enough to keep Houston out of the playoffs. This could be devastating, because it limits the possibility of seeing more of the somehow-even-more-scarier-than-usual version of JJ Watt that we got to see this past Sunday. Also seen in that game, though, was a brutal Matt Schaub pass that was turned into a game-tying pick-6 by Richard Sherman, setting up Seattle’s come-from-behind win in Houston. It would be a shame for Houston not to make the playoffs with all the talent they have on that team, especially on defense.

13. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)

Amazing reality TV doesn’t necessarily translate into amazing football TV. Ok, I may be overselling Hard Knocks a bit, but I don’t think I’m underselling the Bengals inconsistency. Lots of quality players on both sides of the ball, and that was evident in their wins against Pittsburgh and Green Bay. But road losses to Chicago and especially Cleveland were less than inspiring. The AFC North is theirs for the taking if they can clean things up.

14. Green Bay Packers (1-2)

The Packers should try to skip Week 3 from now on. Maybe it’s a curse. They’ve now lost three of their past four Week 3 games (yes, this is what I spend my time doing) despite having only 14 total losses since the start of 2010. They lost to Cincy in Week 3 this year in a game that they should’ve won, sending them to their bye on a losing record. Same start last year, thanks to the infamous Fail Mary game that ended up being the proverbial straw on the camel’s back for NFL replacement refs. They have an important divisional matchup this week at home to Detroit, and I think they bounce back.

15. San Diego Chargers (2-2)

Philip Rivers isn’t done just yet. I’d say Rivers has been the most surprising QB so far this season. A lot of people thought he was on his last legs, but so far he hasn’t shown it. If it weren’t for Peyton Manning, we’d all be talking about Rivers right now. as the best QB in the league. His 118.8 QB rating and 11 passing TD’s both rank second in the NFL to Manning. The Chargers are really just a few plays from being 4-0; both their losses were field-goal games.

16. Atlanta Falcons 

WR Roddy White is actually a huge part of their offense. Unfortunately, he’s been very limited up to this point with an ankle injury. He’s doing a bit more every week, but right now teams are making sure Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez are well covered, so Matt Ryan hasn’t been able to get the offense going as well as last year. Losing RB Steven Jackson hurts too, but Atlanta doesn’t depend that much on their running game anyway. Keep in mind that their 3 losses have come to teams with a combined 11-1 record, so I wouldn’t call them a bad team just yet.

17. Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

Joe Flacco definitely played over his head during Baltimore’s 2013 SuperBowl run. I mentionned in my NFL preview blog that we would probably be saying this eventually, but it’s only taken 4 weeks to make a strong argument for it. Only Eli Manning has a worse QB rating among passers with at least 150 attempts. That’s not a good sign for a team that has the 28th ranked running game (64.0 yards/game). They can play better, but they’re not among the elite.

18. Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

The Boys are who we thought they were. Nothing too surprising with Dallas so far. We know they have talent on the offensive side with Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray, but they’re not going to play well for the full 60 minutes every time out. That’s just who they are. Their 2-2 record is reasonable; they beat the Rams and the Giants and lost to the (surprising) Chargers and undefeated Chiefs. After 4 weeks, they’re probably where they should be. Luckily for them, the NFC East is brutal, so 8-8 could take it.

19. Cleveland Browns (3-2)

They’re actually not tanking after all. This is a shocking development. After they traded former first-round pick Trent Richardson to the Colts, everyone and their dog thought the Browns were throwing the season to make a run for Teddy Bridgewater or JaDaveon Clowney. Not so fast. They’ve reeled off three consecutive wins against the Ravens, Bengals and Bills. Obviously TE Jordan Cameron has been a beast in those games, but the return of WR Josh Gordon from a drug violation suspension has been an equally important factor to their success.

20. Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Tyrann Mathieu can keep up with the big boys. The rookie out of LSU has been all over the field, recording 29 combined tackles (tied for 6th among all safeties), adding one interception and one forced fumble. Along with the superstar that is Patrick Peterson, the Cardinals secondary is pretty good. Arizona beat Tampa and squeaked out a win against a pretty good Detroit team to sit .500 after 4 games. Still a tough road to make the playoffs though.

21. Philadelphia Eagles (1-3)

Chip Kelly hasn’t revolutionized the NFL. Besides one impressive half against the Redskins DC’s, the Eagles haven’t been that great on offense. They can put up some points here and there, for sure, but they play so fast that they end up having an ineffective offense in the grand scheme of things. I always thought Kelly’s offense was a weird concept: what 350-pound offensive linemen is going to want to run up and down the field to get to the line of scrimmage 6 seconds after the last play ended? Sure, the pace will tire the opponent’s defense, but over 16 games, don’t think it won’t have some wear and tear on some of the Eagles players too. I suppose it wouldn’t hurt to have a defense that could make some stops.

22. New York Jets (2-2)

Rex Ryan isn’t about to be fired just yet. At the start of the season, Ryan had 3/2 odds of being the first fired head coach. But what people didn’t realize is that he had tricks up his sleeve: he was able to intentionally injure Mark Sanchez (that’s my theory) to plug in rookie Geno Smith, who has done enough to lead New York to wins over Buffalo and Tampa Bay. Not really impressive wins, but whoever had Ryan getting fired at those odds must be kicking themselves right now.

23. Buffalo Bills (2-3)

The Bills front office is kind of near-sighted. Look, there’s probably a reason the Bills are plunged into a neverending misery, and it starts with the guys wearing suits sitting in the luxury boxes. You have a rookie quarterback in EJ Manuel who, like a lot of the young QBs nowadays, likes to run. He’ll probably get hit, and he might just get hurt. Lo and behold, it happened last night. And it looks like Manuel will be out for at least a few weeks Well, it’s a good thing you have Jeff Tuel, an undrafted rookie who went 4-22 in college, as your backup. Way to plan ahead…

24. Washington Redskins DC’s (1-3)

They don’t have much of an offense if RG3 doesn’t run. Teams aren’t really scared of Griffin’s running dimension right now (because it’s tough to run on one knee), so they’re daring him to throw it. Up to this point, he hasn’t been able to make them pay. Last year, RG3 actually had great numbers as a passer (ranked #1 in DVOA  for QBs with more than 100 attempts). But maybe that was because teams had to load the box to stop him from running. In any case, if Washington can’t run more spread option, the outlook is looking bleak for this season. Especially when the defense can’t stop anybody.

25. Oakland Raiders (1-3)

The Raiders may have finally found a quarterback. Dante Culpepper, Josh McCown, Bruce Gradkowski, Charlie Frye, Jason Campbell, Carson Palmer. Those are the last 6 guys before Terrelle Pryor to have attempted at least 50 passes for the Oakland Raiders. Ouch. Maybe, finally, the Raiders have found themselves a future quartberback. Pryor has been very respectable, completing 67 of 111 passes for 779 yards and 4 TD’s in two-and-a-half games. He’s also added 198 yards on the ground. Too bad he’s playing on a bad team.

26. Carolina Panthers (1-2)

Ron Rivera needs to be let go. In the same vein as Rex Ryan, Rivera was in that list of coaches being favoured to be fired, only Rivera had a much better line at 11/2. Kind of an interesting play. He may have saved himself for a few weeks with a 38-0 shellacking of the New York Giants before Carolina’s bye week, but he’s made countless bad decisions already this year (as he usually does). You’ve got to think that losses to Buffalo and Seattle are more indicative of Carolina’s season than the win over New York; if that’s the case, Rivera has to be on his way out soon.

27. St. Louis Rams (1-3)

The Sam Bradford experiment is over. Seriously. If you watched the Rams game against the 49ers a few Thursdays ago, there’s no way you can disagree. He made some awful throws. The entire Rams offense looked lost. At some point, you have to go in another direction. This is his 4th year, and he doesn’t look to be trending upwards by any means. If you hang onto him too long, all of a sudden you’re out of the playoffs for 8 years, and that’s just unacceptable.

28. Minnesota Vikings (1-3)

Even the best running back in the world can’t make up for how bad the Vikings are. After 4 games, Adrian Peterson has 421 rushing yards, good for 2nd best in the NFL, and a league-best 5 rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately, Minnesota’s defense has given a 4th-worst 30.8 points per game. Add in the mess that is the quarterback situation (where Christian Ponder and Matt Cassell are trying to out-awful each other), and you have a team who doesn’t have much on its resume this season besides a win over the equally hapless Pittsburgh Steelers. You’re welcome, England.

29. New York Giants (0-4)

They’re not a good football team. Pretty simplistic, but a lot of people expected them to be pretty good. They’ve definitely been the surprise awful team this season. They’ve been brutal running the football, which has forced Eli to throw too much, often forcing him to make throws in bad situations. He leads the NFL with 9 interceptions. Overall the Giants have the 30th ranked offense and 32nd ranked defense. Not good.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4)

It’s time for a rebuild in Steel-town. I didn’t expect them to be good this year, but I didn’t think they’d be this bad either. No running game has translated into a brutal offense overall. If only we could’ve had some way of predicting that Todd Haley wouldn’t have success leading Pittsburgh’s offense. Oh, yeah. He oversaw the 4th worse scoring offense from 2009-2011 as head coach in Kansas City. Right.

31. Tampa Bay Buccanneers (0-4)

Missing the team photo is not a good idea when you’re the starting quarterback. Neither is being voted out of captaincy by your teammates. In two years, Josh Freeman went from being a really good QB, to a bad QB, to a mess, to a free agent. I can’t remember any QB crashing more quickly in recent memory. And with that, the Buccaneers would like to welcome you to along the ride towards the lottery pick.

32. Jackonsville Jaguars (0-4)

TV stations actually need to apologize on the Jags behalf. Jacksonville is awful (to nodbody’s surprise). So awful, in fact, that the CBS-Orlando station actually apologized for having to broadcast Jacksonville’s game against Oakland. Under NFL rules, the station needed to broadcast the game to the Orlando region because it is considered a secondary market for the Jaguars. Pretty sure the Jacksonville Jaguars are the ones who should apologize for being outscored 129-31. In case you can’t count that quick, that’s a point differential of negative 98 points. In 4 games. Yeeeeesh.