Week 13 NFL Picks

Well, since it’s Thanksgiving today in the States, I thought I’d hustle to get this post out so I wouldn’t miss any games. Usually I wait until Friday or the weekend because I can almost excuse missing the (usually lame) Thursday Nighter, but missing 3 games was inexcusable.

Although, quite honestly, I’d probably do myself a favour by not doing this because it hasn’t been great so far. Luckily for myself, I have no plans to become a bookie in Vegas anytime soon. You know how movies and TV shows have disclaimers to warn viewers of possible disturbing images? I think I’m going to start doing that. Basically, if you want to make money, just go against all of my picks. You should be fine.

And if you’re not in the gambling mood, just enjoy a great week of football with no byes and THE TOP TWO TEAMS IN BOTH THE AFC AND NFC FACING EACH OTHER. Has that ever happened this late in the regular season before? I have no clue, but it’s pretty spectacular.

So with Turkey, great conference tilts and even a game in Toronto on the menu this weekend, here are the American-Thanksgiving-Day picks. (Home team in italics). Reader discretion is advised.

Detroit Lions (-6.5) over Green Bay Packers

Ah, this would have been such a great Thanksgiving game if Rodgers weren’t injured. But because he is, I’m scared it won’t be that close. Matt Flynn might (and I use that word carefully) be better than Scott Tolzien, but the Packers (5-5-1) still only managed a tie against the lowly Vikings (who they crushed earlier in the season with Rodgers in the game). Detroit (6-5) hasn’t been impressive either recently, but this game should get them going again. Green Bay’s defense isn’t good, and apparently this guy Calvin Johnson is. I think a touchdown win for the Lions is well within reason.

Oakland Raiders (+7.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Doesn’t this set up to be a huge letdown game for Dallas (6-5)? Remember, the Cowboys haven’t won two in a row this year, and every time you feel like you can trust them, they let you down. They edged out a pretty big win in the Meadowlands, and now they go home to face a mediocre Oakland team (4-7) with a chance to take back the NFC East lead.

But Oakland has been competitive in the past 3 weeks, and I think they’ll stay in this game. Again, it just sounds too perfect for Dallas, and that’s usually not a good thing. They do things like this sometimes.

Batlimore Ravens (-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Good line here. I don’t really like one team more than the other, but given that it’s on the road, the Ravens are 3-point favorites. Pittsburgh (5-6) has won 3 in a row and is back in the playoff picture, but they’re only 2-4 on the road, while Baltimore (5-6) has been a solid 4-1 at home this year. The Ravens have won by at least 3 in all of their home wins; I’m seeing nothing less than a push here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8) over Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay (3-8) has actually been impressive in the past month. Don’t look now, but the Bucs have won three straight (against Miami, Atlanta and Detroit) after losing their first eight. The week before that, they had a pretty good showing in Seattle before ultimately losing in overtime. And sure, the Panthers (8-3) are on a 7-game winning streak, but their last 3 wins have been by a combine 9 points. I don’t see a blowout here.

Cleveland Browns (-7) over Jacksonville Jaguars

The last time I thought the Browns had packed in their season (after starting 0-2 and trading Trent Richardson), they went on a three-game winning streak. For that reason, I can’t completely give up on Cleveland despite what the eye-test has told me in the past few weeks. Because, as crazy as it sounds, at 4-7 they’re still not out of the AFC wildcard race. The Jaguars (2-9) have been better lately but still throw in a bad game every couple of weeks, and after beating the Texans in Week 12, they’re due for a stinker here.

Indianapolis Colts (-4) over Tennessee Titans

Look, I know Indy (7-4) hasn’t been good for a while now (really since losing Reggie Wayne), but you’ve got to think they put their foot down here at home against Tennessee (5-6) led by backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (who has been decent as a replacement for Jake Locker). The 2-seed is still very much in play for the Colts if they turn it on down the stretch, and I can’t see them letting this one slide.

Chicago Bears (+1) over Minnesota Vikings

This is the second consecutive week that the division-leading Bears (6-5) have been underdogs to a weaker opponent. Last week it was the Rams, this week it’s the Vikings (2-8-1). Of course, last week the Bears had their rear ends handed to them by St. Louis, but two weeks in a row? Losing Jay Cutler is not nearly as detrimental to Chicago as, for example, Aaron Rodgers is to Green Bay. Josh McCown has been fine taking over for Cutler. This isn’t happening two weeks in a row. Give me Daaaaaaa Bears.

New York Jets (-2) over Miami Dolphins

The Jets (5-6) are 4-1 at home, while the Dolphins (5-6) are 2-3 on the road. It seems simplistic, because it is. Geno Smith on the road? Terrible. Geno Smith at home? Decent enough to win. This just feels like a bad matchup for Miami. New York’s defense is legit; Miami’s offensive line isn’t.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) over Philadelphia Eagles

This should be a good one. Both teams have turned it around after so-so starts and are on pretty good winning streaks. That being said, it’s more been a case of both of them taking advantage of their weaker opponents. For Arizona (7-4), it’s been Atlanta, Houston, Jacksonville and Indianapolis (who never really showed up last week), while Philadelphia (6-5) beat Oakland, Green Bay (without Rodgers) and Washington is succession. It’ll be interesting to see who falters against a decent opponent.

The biggest issue here for the Eagles is that they’ve been so reliant on that offense, but Arizona’s defense has been among the best this year. Philly won’t have the same success throwing the ball as it did against the Raiders, Packers or Redskins. Plus, kind of like in the Dallas game, you should always be worried about an NFC East team, especially when you think they’re feeling good about themselves.

Denver Broncos (-4.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

Did you see what Philip Rivers did to Kansas City (9-2) last week? This defense is not the same we saw for the first few weeks, probably because they’ve started playing good teams now. Plus, Peyton and the Broncos (9-2) will be fired up after they pooped the bed in New England in the second half/overtime of the Sunday Nighter. I don’t see Denver winning by any less than 7 points, even if the game is in Arrowhead. And this is in no way my best effort to jinx the Broncos. (Hey, if I can’t get these right, I may as well use my powers for good).

Before I move on, I just want to say something quick. It’s almost like this game has lost hype somehow after these teams played two weeks ago. But wait, these are still the top two teams in the AFC facing off. And they’re in the same division! Still a massive tilt. Should be fantastic. OHHH YEAAAAAAAAH!

New England Patriots (-7.5) over Houston Texans 

I’m going to keep picking agaisnt Houston (2-9) as long as Vegas keeps giving them even the slightest respect. I thought this line would be at least double digits, but apparently someone still seems something (I have no idea what) in the Texans. This is a team THAT PUT UP 6 POINTS AGAINST JACKSONVILLE AT HOME LAST WEEK. That’s it. New England (8-3) is going to run all over them. The Pats are starting to get healthy, and played well against Denver (besides the fumbles that killed their first half). Should be double digits easily.

Buffalo Bills (-3) over Atlanta Falcons

This game really scares me for Buffalo because the Bills usually don’t come out swinging for these Toronto games. They’ve only won one of five at Rogers Centre, against the then (and again now) brutal Washington Redskins in 2011. That being said, I think Atlanta (2-9) falls in that same category. And while the Falcons don’t have much to play for anymore (besides a higher draft pick), the Bills are still in the thick of that craptastic AFC wildcard race.

That’s right. The 4-7 Bills are the ones looking to make a playoff push against the lowly Falcons this Sunday in Toronto. I doubt anyone was selling it that way when they first put it on the schedule.

San Francisco 49ers (-8)  over St. Louis Rams

Are the Rams good maybe? You’d have thought that losing Sam Bradford for the season (and, more importantly, replacing him with Kellen Clemens) would spell the end for St. Louis, but not quite. They’ve blown out the Colts and Bears in back-to-back games, and now they play the 49ers who haven’t really been as good as you could have hoped, especially lately.

But hang on. St. Louis has been carried by running back Zac Stacy, and now he looks questionable at best for this game. It’s one thing for Kellen Clemens to hand the ball off and win, it’s another for him to throw it and win. This is not the Colts or Bears defense, this is the 49ers defense, a whole ‘nother beast. I think we see a statement game from San Fran.

Cincinnati Bengals (+1) over San Diego Chargers 

This is what the Chargers have done after a win this year : loss to Tennessee (Week 3), loss to Oakland (Week 5), win against Jacksonville (only back-to back, Week 6), three straight losses to Washington, Denver and Miami (Weeks 9-11). Aside from beating the Jags (who were still winless and hopeless at the time), San Diego (5-6) hasn’t played well after a win. Cincinnati (7-4) isn’t a walkover. I’ll take the Bengals defense over the Chargers offense in this one.

New York Giants (-1) over Washington Redskins

This is a sad indictment for the Giants (4-7) to only be favored by one against the Redskins (3-8). Don’t let their similar records fool you; New York had won four in a row before losing to Dallas on Sunday, while Washington has lost 4 of 5. That Redskins offense has been pretty bad too. It’s just a real messy situation in D.C. right now with the obvious bad vibes between RGIII, his coaches and his teammates. I’m not getting anywhere close to that situation.

New Orleans Saints (+5) over Seattle Seahawks

Fantastic Monday Night game, a possible NFC Conference Final, probably the best ESPN has gotten all year. It’s going to be loud in Seattle, and it’s going to be fun. There isn’t a whole lot to say about these two teams besides the fact that they’re obviously very good. It’s Seattle’s running attack against New Orleans’ passing attack.

In years past, I would have definitely taken the Seahawks (10-1) at home giving only 5 points, but this Saints (9-2) team can play decent defense too, so they won’t be out of it. And you know how quickly Brees and the gang can strike on offense. I think we’ll see a field goal here, and I actually think New Orleans can win it. Either way I think 5 is too much.

Last week : 4-9-0

Season : 15-22-2

 

The Eight Tiers of Super Bowl Contention

Led by former MVP Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay is one of the preseason Super Bowl favourites.

It’s that time again.

The NFL is back, and not a moment too soon. The season kicks off tonight with the annual Thursday night opener pitting the Super Bowl champs, in this case the Baltimore Ravens, against a marquee opponent, in this case the Denver Broncos. This year’s version has a little twist to it as the defending champs will be on the road (instead of being at home as they usually are) since the Baltimore Orioles decided that they’re too good now to make a few compromises for their football brethren.

I thought about doing a full preview of the league, team-by-team, but I’m tired of that, and I’m sure you are too. Instead, I’m dividing the league into 8 groups (and I realize that’s already the case, and that they’re named “divisions”, but these are different groupings). Because here’s the thing: as of right now, all 32 teams technically have the same chance of winning the Super Bowl, but we know that, in reality, that’s not the case. It’s like in George Orwell’s Animal Farm: all teams are equal, but some are more equal than others (it’s literature, check it out).

So with that said, here are the eight tiers of Super Bowl contention, from the weakest to the strongest.

1. Not a chance : Arizona Cardinals, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders

One thing that will be apparent early on is that the NFC is much stronger than the AFC.

As the name would suggest, this group doesn’t have much to hope for in 2013 besides landing a high draft pick and drafting either Teddy Bridgewater or Jadeveon Clowney in the 2014 Draft. The Jags, Jets and Raiders don’t yet have a real answer at quarterback, and that’s not a good thing. Their offenses will struggle, and because of that, their defenses will be tested much too often.

As for the Cards, someone has to have the worst record in the NFC, and it’ll probably be the weakest team from one of the strongest divisions, which Arizona happens to be.

2. Still No : Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, San Diego Chargers, Tennessee Titans

Another three sub-par AFC teams and an unlucky NFC team. The Bills and Titans, like the 3 AFC teams in the first group, are far from solid at QB, while Phillip Rivers seems to be losing stock by the minute in San Diego. The Panthers, like the Cards, find themselves in one of the toughest divisions of the toughest conference and will suffer because of it, although if Cam Newton bounces back this season, it could be a different story.

One of these first 8 teams could surprise a few and make a run at the playoffs if things fall into place, but their odds of challenging for a Super Bowl are slim to none.  

3. It’s a Long Shot : Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, St. Louis Rams

Things are beginning to look up slowly, but these teams are still far from solid. There are a lot of question marks surrounding these four squads that could decide whether they grab a playoff of spot or a top-5 pick. Will Norv Turner’s arrival as offensive coordinator help Brandon Weeden take the next step to become a solid QB for the Browns? Are the Lions closer to the 10-6 team that made the playoffs in 2011 than the one that collapsed in the second half of 2012 to finish 4-12? Can new head coach Chip Kelly’s supersonic offense revitalize Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and the rest of the Eagles offense? Is Sam Bradford the answer in St. Louis, and does he have enough weapons to help him? Unfortunately, the answer to all of these questions is probably not.

4. Doubtful : Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s starting to get interesting, but we’re still not quite at real contenders just yet. That being said, these are all teams that can make the playoffs if they put things together. The Cowboys still have a great passing attack; the Chiefs should be a lot better than last season, thanks to upgrades to their head coach, quarterback and defense; the Dolphins aren’t great but aren’t bad; and the Steelers, just like their QB, just seem to grind it out when you most expect them to fail. Dallas will have a hard time making the playoffs in that strong NFC, but the Chiefs, Dolphins and Steelers all have a shot in what should be a pretty wide open AFC playoff race.

5. If Things Go Their Way : Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

These are teams that need some “luck” on their side (I’m sorry, I had to), but they could be sneaky sleepers. The Bears need to be able to protect Jay Cutler in Marc Trestman’s new scheme so that the offense can approach the level of play of the defense. The Colts need even more of Andrew Luck this year because, as Bill Barnwell of Grantland writes, they may not have as much of the other (more common) type of luck in 2013. The Vikings need Adrian Peterson to break Eric Dickerson’s record because Christian Ponder isn’t really a great QB; apparently that shouldn’t be a problem, at least according to Peterson. And the Bucs need Josh Freeman to not do what he did in the second half of last season, especially in the tough NFC South, so that Tampa can be competitive.

There are no guarantees here, but one of them could make a run in the playoffs if everything goes well.

6. Don’t Count ‘Em Out : Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, Washington Redskins

They’re not the sexiest picks, but you just can’t count them out.

Aside from the Redskins, these teams all have good playoff pedigree and are three of the 4 last Super Bowl champions. It’s not like they don’t have weaknesses, but you can hide those over the course of 3 or 4 playoff games, just like the Ravens themselves did last year, thanks to what will most likely be remembered as “those 4 games where Joe Flacco played way over his head”. As for the Redskins, I think they take another step in Year 2 of the RG3 era, as long as he can stay healthy.

Out of all these teams, however, I think New Orleans is the one to watch for as a “surprise” (if any of these can be a surprise). They may not have a great defense, but they sure have a good offense, and having head coach Sean Payton back from his bounty-gate suspension not only makes a difference tactically, but also in overall mindset and emotions. I think they’re going to be in “Screw the NFL” mode. Score a touchdown to put you up by 30 points with 2 minutes left in the game? Go for two. This is definitely revenge time for the New Orleans Saints.

7.  They Will Compete : Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers

No surprises anymore. Anyone of these last eight teams has a very legitimate shot to lift the Vince Lombardi trophy come early February. They either have an elite offense (Falcons), an elite defense (Bengals), or a good balance of both (Patriots and 49ers). They may not make it to the Super Bowl, and they may not even win their division (ok, except for the Patriots, that’s almost a given); but nobody should be surprised to see any one of these teams go deep in the playoffs.

8. Definite Contenders : Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks

Again, no surprises. These are the my 4 conference finalists. They’re the 4 teams with the best balance on both sides of the ball. You could make an argument against each of these, but it would be either biased, nonsensical or pedantic.

For example, a lot of people are scared of Von Miller’s 6-game suspension, but I’m not one of them. Peyton Manning is apparently back to full arm strength and will limit any damage caused by Miller’s absence, and the Broncos will have him afterwards for the important games anyway. Houston QB Matt Schaub may not be among the elite, but that defense is, and at this point I’m not convinced that J.J. Watt can’t play quarterback too. The Green Bay Packers will be perennial contenders as long as they have Aaron Rodgers, and the Seattle Seahawks defense is so scary I’m surprised they haven’t scared all the Skittles out of Marshawn Lynch. These are the best bets, in my opinion, to contend for the Super Bowl.

And because I’ve gone this far, I may as well go a bit further. Like I said, these are my 4 conference finalists. I have the Packers and the Broncos facing off in the Super Bowl, with the Packers taking home the Vince Lombardi trophy.

Sorry Packers fans. I had to jinx someone.