Week 17 NFL Picks

Week 17 already! Time flies, it’s incredible. And maybe for the best, because I’ve been downright horrible at this. I make the Houston Texans look good. But that’s ok, because the games themselves have been great. And if you really want some betting advice, just go against my picks every time.

16 games, lots to be decided. In the AFC, the top 5 playoff teams are basically set : Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Kansas City. There can be a bit of movement between the top 4, but they’ve all won their respective divisions, so KC is locked into the 5th seed. Only the second wildcard spot is really in play, and the best shots are (in order) : Baltimore (8-7), Miami (8-7), San Diego (8-7), and Pittsburgh (7-8). But the weird part is that there aren’t any “win-and-they’re-in” scenarios for that 6th seed. Everyone needs some kind of help.

We’ll start quickly with the Steelers, who need a win and all other three to lose (because of their record). As for the other three, the tie-breakers are interesting. Obviously, if one of the the three wins and the other two lose, that winner is in. But besides that, here are the other possible scenarios :

– Baltimore clinches with a win and a San Diego loss; or a win and a Miami loss.

– Miami clinches with a win and a Baltimore loss; or a win and a San Diego win.

– San Diego only clinches if Miami and Baltimore both lose (barring ties).

In the NFC, things are more straightforward with 5 of 6 teams having clinched playoff spots, and only 2 fighting for the other wildcard spot. That being said, no divisions have been locked up yet (which is insane), so we’ll start there.

– NFC North : Chicago and Green Bay play each other for the division title.

– NFC East : Dallas and Philadelphia play each other for the division title.

– NFC West : Seattle can clinch the title with a win, San Francisco can clinch with a win and a Seahawks loss.

– NFC South : Carolina clinches the title with a win, New Orleans clinches with a win and a Panthers loss.

– Wildcard : New Orleans clinches with a win or an Arizona loss; Cardinals clinch with a win and a Saints loss.

Now that we’ve set the stakes, let’s get on with the picks.

Carolina Panthers (-6) over Atlanta Falcons

Under a touchdown for this seems criminal. The Falcons (4-11) are really bad at football. You saw what the Panthers (11-5) were able to do to the Saints offense, they should be fine against Matty Ice-cold. The division title is Carolina’s for the taking; the Cats should walk all over the Birds.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+10.5) over Indianapolis Colts

I just think 10.5 is too many points here. The Jaguars (4-11) have only been outscored by double digits once in the past 2 months, going 4-3 in that time. They haven’t been horrible with Chad Henne under center, and “not horrible” should be good enough to cover here. The Colts (10-5) might have a shot at the 3rd seed with a win, but there isn’t a whole lot on the line for them.

Miami Dolphins (-6.5) over New York Jets

A few things you need to know about this one. (1) The Jets (7-8) are just 1-6 on the road this year, (2) they’re 0-7 in every second game (starting in Week 2) being outscored by an average of 19 points (they won last week), and (3) the Dolphins (8-7) have their season on the line.

Baltimore Ravens (+6.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

I think the Bengals (10-5) will ultimately win here, but I think it’ll be a close one. 10 of Batlimore’s 15 games this year have been decided by 6 points or less, including 6 of 7 on the road. Unfortunately, they’ve lost 4 of those 6, and I think we’ll see something similar here.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) over Cleveland Browns

This is the last of the early games that mean anything, and for the Steelers (7-8) it’s win or go home (it actually could be win and go home, but anyway). Pittsburgh has been one of the hottest teams of late, winning 5 of 6 to stay in the playoff hunt. Cleveland (4-11) has been done for a while now, and they’ve pretty much thrown in the towel, losing 6 straight games. They’ll get up for a division matchup here to try to play spoiler, but I still think the Steelers cover.

Detroit Lions (+3) over Minnesota Vikings

Washington Redskins (+3) over New York Giants

Tennessee Titans (-6.5) over Houston Texans

The only three games that have absolutely no playoff implications, and those are always tough to pick. I can’t over-think them because you can never tell who really comes out to play when nothing matters, but I’ll give you my reasons for each game in a few words. Detroit :Adrian Peterson is out. Washington : Kirk Cousins has been pretty good and has covered in both starts. Tennessee : No team can possibly be more dysfunctional than Houston.

Green Bay Packers (-3) over Chicago Bears

Look who’s baaaaaaaack! Former MVP and successful mustache-wearer Aaron Rodgers will start at quarterback for Green Bay (7-7-1) for the first time since Week 9 when the Packers lost to….the Bears (8-7) of course. Talk about the perfect revenge storyline. Sure, he’ll be rusty initially, but he’s still a huge difference maker. Green Bay averaged a bit less than 22 points in his absence, but they put up 29 per game in his 8 starts. Not to mention another (more underrated) return, that of Randall Cobb, the explosive wideout who should help Rodgers ease back into action. I’ll take the Pack to win the NFC North.

Kansas City Chiefs (+9) over San Diego Chargers

Probably one you want to stay away from, because you don’t know how long (if at all) the Chiefs (11-4) starters will stay in the game (again, this game doesn’t really mean anything to them because they’re locked in the 5-seed). But that doesn’t mean the backups won’t play their hearts out to try to earn a bigger role. And as for San Diego (8-7), if either Baltimore or Miami wins in one of the early games, the Chargers won’t have a shot at the playoffs, so this game doesn’t necessarily mean anything for them either. I’ll just take the points and hope for the best.

Seattle Seahawks (-11.5) over St. Louis Rams

New Orleans Saints (-11) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Neither line scares me, because the Seahawks and Saints are among the best home teams in the league with a combined 13-1 record. Seattle (12-3) has outscored teams at home by an average of 17.5 points going 6-1, while New Orleans (10-5) is undefeated at the Superdome, outscoring opponents by 16 points. Both teams are playing for potential divisional titles, and neither the Rams (7-8) or Bucs (4-11) are too scary.

Oakland Raiders (+10.5) over Denver Broncos

At least one of these double-digit lines has to miss, and I’m thinking this one. All Peyton Manning has left to play for is the passing yards record (he needs 266 more) now that he’s set the touchdown record. I think Denver puts up a bunch early, seals it by halftime, and takes its foot off the gas. The Broncos (12-3) need to win to clinch home field throughout the playoffs, and they’ll probably have it wrapped up early, but I feel like Oakland (4-11) will put up some points late for a garbage cover.

New England Patriots (-7) over Buffalo Bills

After playing in 5 consecutive games decided by 4 points or less, New England (11-4) finally put it all together last week for one of its best performances of the year, crushing Baltimore 41-7. I think they keep that momentum going against an even weaker Bills team (6-9). The Pats still have a shot at home field throughout the playoffs, so they’ll definitely go for the win. And it should be an easy one.

San Francisco 49ers (-1) over Arizona Cardinals

Should be a really good game here. Like I mentioned earlier, San Francisco (11-4) could still win the NFC North with a win and a Seattle loss, while Arizona (10-5) needs a win and a Saints loss to make the playoffs. Both teams are playing well of late; San Fran is on a 5-game winning streak (for the second time this year), while the Cards have won 3 straight and 7 of 8 overall. But I can’t trust Carson Palmer to lead his team to a big win; his 21 interceptions are second-most in the NFL (only Eli Manning has thrown more picks). Plus, the Niners are 5-0-0 as away favorites this season. Sounds like a good trend to me.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) over Dallas Cowboys

Honestly, if this wasn’t the NFC East, this line would be at least double digits. The Cowboys (8-7) are so bad on defense it’s almost laughable, and despite what everyone wants to say about him, Tony Romo was really the only reason they were winning games. Dallas hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record this season. Meanwhile, the Eagles have no problem scoring to begin with, so the Cowboys junior varsity level defense shouldn’t be an issue for Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy and company. Aside from a bad loss to Minnesota a few weeks ago, Philly has been really strong in the past two months and deserves this division.

Last week : 5-9-1

Season : 41-53-5

Week 14 NFL Picks

So thanks to New Orleans laying an egg in Seattle on Monday night, I still haven’t hit a week over .500 yet. This is getting bad. Logically, the way Vegas makes its spreads, a gambler should be right around .500 over the long haul (and lose money because the odds aren’t exactly even, they’re obviously tilted towards the house).

So I’m calling this a streak of really bad luck. And if you feel like profiting off of my bad luck, just go ahead and go against all of my picks. You should be fine.

Once again, because of the overall terrible nature of these picks, reader discretion is advised. (Home team in italics).

Minnesota Vikings (+6) over Baltimore Ravens

The Vikings (3-8-1) are certainly not a powerhouse, but they’ve been able to keep games close lately, extending their last two matchups into overtime. The way Adrian Peterson is running the ball (and the way Ray Rice isn’t), it’ll be hard for the Ravens (6-6) to run away with this one. You saw them let the Steelers back in the game on Thanksgiving even though the game should’ve been put to bed after halftime. I’ll take the points.

New England Patriots (-10) over Cleveland Browns

So it’s Josh Gordon against New England basically. And if there’s one thing we know about Belichik, it’s that he likes to take out the other team’s best weapon and let them beat you another way. Unfortunately, the Browns (4-8) don’t have another way. If Jacksonville can put up 32 against Cleveland in a comeback win, imagine what Tom Brady can do. No to mention that the Patriots (9-3) defense is much better than the Jaguars’.

Oakland Raiders (+3) over New York Jets

You can’t win in the NFL without a mediocre (at worst) QB, and the Jets (5-7) don’t have that right now. They’ve lost three in a row, putting up a total of 20 points in that time. Eeesh. It’s not like the Raiders (4-8) are going to blow them out of the water, because they’ve lost 4 of 5, but getting 3 points from the Jets at this point seems too good to ignore (New York hasn’t scored more than 3 points in each of the past to games). I’ll take those points.

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) over Indianapolis Colts

On paper, this looks like a great matchup, one that could very well decide which one of these teams gets the 3rd seed in the AFC and which one gets the 4th seed. But Indy (8-4) hasn’t been the same team ever since Reggie Wayne went down. Cincy (8-4), on the other hand, is undefeated at home, where they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 16.4 points. Sure, some of that is inflated by a 40-point win over the Jets, but this is a team that held the Pats to 6 points. I think they’ll have another strong defensive outing against the suddenly shaky Colts.

Detroit Lions (+3) over Philadelphia Eagles

Similar to the Bengals-Colts matchup, this could be the deciding matchup for the 3rd and 4th seeds in the NFC. The Eagles (7-5) have been outstanding since Nick Foles took over under center, while the Lions (7-5) finally had their first true statement game in a 40-10 win over Green Bay on Thanksgiving. Both offenses are strong, both defenses can be scored on. If the weather wasn’t an issue here, you’d take the over in a hurry. But the way it’s playing out, it could be more of a defensive struggle than you’d expect. Either way, I’ll go NBA-style and take the team (Detroit) with the best player on the field (Calvin Johnson). If it comes down to a game-winning drive, you can certainly trust him.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) over Miami Dolphins

These teams are trending in opposite directions. Despite a win over the (lowly) Jets last week, Miami (5-7) has only won 2 of 9 after starting the season 3-0. The Steelers (5-7), on the other hand, have won 5 of 7 after starting the year 0-5. Pittsburgh is 3-2 at home this year despite their poor record. They still have a decent shot at the 6th seed, so they’ll be desperate to get this one. And plus, they always put their right foot forward.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) over Washington Redskins

This has to be a statement game for KC (9-3). They’ve put up three straight losses now, but during that time they’ve scored 73 points, or an average of 27.7 per game. That probably won’t change against a bad Washington defense. The issue with the Chiefs, strangely, has been their defense, which started the year allowing no more than 17 points in 9 straight wins. But Washington (3-9) isn’t as good offensively as San Diego and certainly not as good as Denver. I expect a bounce back game for the Chiefs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) over Buffalo Bills

Buffalo (4-8) is officially horrible after losing to Atlanta in overtime last week in a game they needed (and should’ve had) but gave away. Tampa Bay (3-9), is officially better than its record shows. In the past 5 weeks, they’ve won 3 games (including games against Miami and Detroit, decent NFL teams) and lost in overtime on the road to Seattle. It’s too late now, but you’d have to think that their record would be much closer to .500 had the Bucs started Mike Glennon under center in Week 1.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) over Green Bay Packers

Atlanta (3-9) really shouldn’t want to win here, but they shouldn’t have against Buffalo last week either, and we saw how that went. They can’t even tank a season properly. And their opponent this week is not the same without its star quarterback. In 8 weeks with Aaron Rodgers, the Pack were 5-2 and scored 29 points per game. Since his injury against the Bears in Week 9, they’re 0-3-1 and have scored 15.5 points per game. In other words, Aaron Rodgers is worth two touchdowns by himself, basically. In case you haven’t realized yet, Rodgers is not playing this week. Atlanta’s got this.

Tennessee Titants (+12.5) over Denver Broncos

Blah blah Peyton Manning in cold weather blah blah. Ok, I’m done with that, now moving on. The Titans (5-7) have allowed the least touchdown passes this season (8). And they’ve only been outscored by double digits once this year. I think the Broncos (10-2) will have more trouble scoring than they’d expect, and this game will turn into more of a running game battle, which means that it won’t be as high scoring as you’d expect, which also means that Denver won’t run away with it. Take the points.

Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) over St. Louis Rams

The Rams kryptonite is good defense (maybe because Kellen Clemens is QB?). In the last 6 weeks, they’ve beaten  blown out Chicago and Indianapolis, but lost to Tennessee, Seattle, Carolina and San Francisco. I’ve already talked about the Titans defense, and it’s no secret that the Seahawks, Panthers and 49ers are great on that side of the ball too. According to Football Outsiders, Seattle, Carolina and San Francisco rank 1st, 2nd, and 6th respectively in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, advanced metrics that measure team efficiency). Arizona is 3rd. I’ll take the Cards defense against Kellen Clemens.

New York Giants (+3.5) over San Diego Chargers 

The Chargers (5-7) are tough to figure out. They’ll score 41 against KC on the road, but then only 10 at home against the Bengals. They’re Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Mediocre. I guess this is really just a gut pick for me. The Giants (5-7) are 5-1 since their abysmal start, and a lot of that is due to Andre Brown’s play in the backfield. I honestly can’t trust either of these teams, but since I’m getting more than a field goal, I’ll take the Giants.

San Francisco 49ers (-3) over Seattle Seahawks

Great game and great line. Remember, Seattle (11-1) isn’t the same team on the road. They’ve only lost one of 6 away from Seattle, but they’ve also only really beaten Atlanta handily; the rest were nail-biters. Plus, the Seahawks haven’t won in their last 4 trips to San Francisco. This game is more important to the Niners (8-4) than it is to Seattle; San Fran is not a lock to make the playoffs yet. I smell a push here, but I’ll go with the team that I think wins the game.

New Orleans Saints (-3) over Carolina Panthers

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Drew Brees dominating at home on primetime. He’s 10-0 in his last 10 starts at the Superdome in primetime, during which he’s thrown 33 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions. The Saints (9-3) will be looking for redemption after their horrible performance on Monday night, and I think we’ll see that happen. Carolina (9-3) has been great during its 8-game winning streak, but Drew Brees on Sunday night is another beast altogether. Great game either way.

Chicago Bears (+1) over Dallas Cowboys

Ok, I’m going to hit a Bears line eventually. This time they’re a home dog against a Dallas (7-5) team that doesn’t necessarily inspire confidence. I can’t find any reason to take Tony Romo on the road giving a point. And on the Bears (6-6) side of things, Josh McCown has done very well in place of Jay Cutler. Nothing scares me about the Cowboys defense. A big game for both teams’ playoff hopes, but I’ll go with the home team.

Last week : 7-8-1

Season : 22-30-3

Week 13 NFL Picks

Well, since it’s Thanksgiving today in the States, I thought I’d hustle to get this post out so I wouldn’t miss any games. Usually I wait until Friday or the weekend because I can almost excuse missing the (usually lame) Thursday Nighter, but missing 3 games was inexcusable.

Although, quite honestly, I’d probably do myself a favour by not doing this because it hasn’t been great so far. Luckily for myself, I have no plans to become a bookie in Vegas anytime soon. You know how movies and TV shows have disclaimers to warn viewers of possible disturbing images? I think I’m going to start doing that. Basically, if you want to make money, just go against all of my picks. You should be fine.

And if you’re not in the gambling mood, just enjoy a great week of football with no byes and THE TOP TWO TEAMS IN BOTH THE AFC AND NFC FACING EACH OTHER. Has that ever happened this late in the regular season before? I have no clue, but it’s pretty spectacular.

So with Turkey, great conference tilts and even a game in Toronto on the menu this weekend, here are the American-Thanksgiving-Day picks. (Home team in italics). Reader discretion is advised.

Detroit Lions (-6.5) over Green Bay Packers

Ah, this would have been such a great Thanksgiving game if Rodgers weren’t injured. But because he is, I’m scared it won’t be that close. Matt Flynn might (and I use that word carefully) be better than Scott Tolzien, but the Packers (5-5-1) still only managed a tie against the lowly Vikings (who they crushed earlier in the season with Rodgers in the game). Detroit (6-5) hasn’t been impressive either recently, but this game should get them going again. Green Bay’s defense isn’t good, and apparently this guy Calvin Johnson is. I think a touchdown win for the Lions is well within reason.

Oakland Raiders (+7.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Doesn’t this set up to be a huge letdown game for Dallas (6-5)? Remember, the Cowboys haven’t won two in a row this year, and every time you feel like you can trust them, they let you down. They edged out a pretty big win in the Meadowlands, and now they go home to face a mediocre Oakland team (4-7) with a chance to take back the NFC East lead.

But Oakland has been competitive in the past 3 weeks, and I think they’ll stay in this game. Again, it just sounds too perfect for Dallas, and that’s usually not a good thing. They do things like this sometimes.

Batlimore Ravens (-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Good line here. I don’t really like one team more than the other, but given that it’s on the road, the Ravens are 3-point favorites. Pittsburgh (5-6) has won 3 in a row and is back in the playoff picture, but they’re only 2-4 on the road, while Baltimore (5-6) has been a solid 4-1 at home this year. The Ravens have won by at least 3 in all of their home wins; I’m seeing nothing less than a push here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8) over Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay (3-8) has actually been impressive in the past month. Don’t look now, but the Bucs have won three straight (against Miami, Atlanta and Detroit) after losing their first eight. The week before that, they had a pretty good showing in Seattle before ultimately losing in overtime. And sure, the Panthers (8-3) are on a 7-game winning streak, but their last 3 wins have been by a combine 9 points. I don’t see a blowout here.

Cleveland Browns (-7) over Jacksonville Jaguars

The last time I thought the Browns had packed in their season (after starting 0-2 and trading Trent Richardson), they went on a three-game winning streak. For that reason, I can’t completely give up on Cleveland despite what the eye-test has told me in the past few weeks. Because, as crazy as it sounds, at 4-7 they’re still not out of the AFC wildcard race. The Jaguars (2-9) have been better lately but still throw in a bad game every couple of weeks, and after beating the Texans in Week 12, they’re due for a stinker here.

Indianapolis Colts (-4) over Tennessee Titans

Look, I know Indy (7-4) hasn’t been good for a while now (really since losing Reggie Wayne), but you’ve got to think they put their foot down here at home against Tennessee (5-6) led by backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (who has been decent as a replacement for Jake Locker). The 2-seed is still very much in play for the Colts if they turn it on down the stretch, and I can’t see them letting this one slide.

Chicago Bears (+1) over Minnesota Vikings

This is the second consecutive week that the division-leading Bears (6-5) have been underdogs to a weaker opponent. Last week it was the Rams, this week it’s the Vikings (2-8-1). Of course, last week the Bears had their rear ends handed to them by St. Louis, but two weeks in a row? Losing Jay Cutler is not nearly as detrimental to Chicago as, for example, Aaron Rodgers is to Green Bay. Josh McCown has been fine taking over for Cutler. This isn’t happening two weeks in a row. Give me Daaaaaaa Bears.

New York Jets (-2) over Miami Dolphins

The Jets (5-6) are 4-1 at home, while the Dolphins (5-6) are 2-3 on the road. It seems simplistic, because it is. Geno Smith on the road? Terrible. Geno Smith at home? Decent enough to win. This just feels like a bad matchup for Miami. New York’s defense is legit; Miami’s offensive line isn’t.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) over Philadelphia Eagles

This should be a good one. Both teams have turned it around after so-so starts and are on pretty good winning streaks. That being said, it’s more been a case of both of them taking advantage of their weaker opponents. For Arizona (7-4), it’s been Atlanta, Houston, Jacksonville and Indianapolis (who never really showed up last week), while Philadelphia (6-5) beat Oakland, Green Bay (without Rodgers) and Washington is succession. It’ll be interesting to see who falters against a decent opponent.

The biggest issue here for the Eagles is that they’ve been so reliant on that offense, but Arizona’s defense has been among the best this year. Philly won’t have the same success throwing the ball as it did against the Raiders, Packers or Redskins. Plus, kind of like in the Dallas game, you should always be worried about an NFC East team, especially when you think they’re feeling good about themselves.

Denver Broncos (-4.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

Did you see what Philip Rivers did to Kansas City (9-2) last week? This defense is not the same we saw for the first few weeks, probably because they’ve started playing good teams now. Plus, Peyton and the Broncos (9-2) will be fired up after they pooped the bed in New England in the second half/overtime of the Sunday Nighter. I don’t see Denver winning by any less than 7 points, even if the game is in Arrowhead. And this is in no way my best effort to jinx the Broncos. (Hey, if I can’t get these right, I may as well use my powers for good).

Before I move on, I just want to say something quick. It’s almost like this game has lost hype somehow after these teams played two weeks ago. But wait, these are still the top two teams in the AFC facing off. And they’re in the same division! Still a massive tilt. Should be fantastic. OHHH YEAAAAAAAAH!

New England Patriots (-7.5) over Houston Texans 

I’m going to keep picking agaisnt Houston (2-9) as long as Vegas keeps giving them even the slightest respect. I thought this line would be at least double digits, but apparently someone still seems something (I have no idea what) in the Texans. This is a team THAT PUT UP 6 POINTS AGAINST JACKSONVILLE AT HOME LAST WEEK. That’s it. New England (8-3) is going to run all over them. The Pats are starting to get healthy, and played well against Denver (besides the fumbles that killed their first half). Should be double digits easily.

Buffalo Bills (-3) over Atlanta Falcons

This game really scares me for Buffalo because the Bills usually don’t come out swinging for these Toronto games. They’ve only won one of five at Rogers Centre, against the then (and again now) brutal Washington Redskins in 2011. That being said, I think Atlanta (2-9) falls in that same category. And while the Falcons don’t have much to play for anymore (besides a higher draft pick), the Bills are still in the thick of that craptastic AFC wildcard race.

That’s right. The 4-7 Bills are the ones looking to make a playoff push against the lowly Falcons this Sunday in Toronto. I doubt anyone was selling it that way when they first put it on the schedule.

San Francisco 49ers (-8)  over St. Louis Rams

Are the Rams good maybe? You’d have thought that losing Sam Bradford for the season (and, more importantly, replacing him with Kellen Clemens) would spell the end for St. Louis, but not quite. They’ve blown out the Colts and Bears in back-to-back games, and now they play the 49ers who haven’t really been as good as you could have hoped, especially lately.

But hang on. St. Louis has been carried by running back Zac Stacy, and now he looks questionable at best for this game. It’s one thing for Kellen Clemens to hand the ball off and win, it’s another for him to throw it and win. This is not the Colts or Bears defense, this is the 49ers defense, a whole ‘nother beast. I think we see a statement game from San Fran.

Cincinnati Bengals (+1) over San Diego Chargers 

This is what the Chargers have done after a win this year : loss to Tennessee (Week 3), loss to Oakland (Week 5), win against Jacksonville (only back-to back, Week 6), three straight losses to Washington, Denver and Miami (Weeks 9-11). Aside from beating the Jags (who were still winless and hopeless at the time), San Diego (5-6) hasn’t played well after a win. Cincinnati (7-4) isn’t a walkover. I’ll take the Bengals defense over the Chargers offense in this one.

New York Giants (-1) over Washington Redskins

This is a sad indictment for the Giants (4-7) to only be favored by one against the Redskins (3-8). Don’t let their similar records fool you; New York had won four in a row before losing to Dallas on Sunday, while Washington has lost 4 of 5. That Redskins offense has been pretty bad too. It’s just a real messy situation in D.C. right now with the obvious bad vibes between RGIII, his coaches and his teammates. I’m not getting anywhere close to that situation.

New Orleans Saints (+5) over Seattle Seahawks

Fantastic Monday Night game, a possible NFC Conference Final, probably the best ESPN has gotten all year. It’s going to be loud in Seattle, and it’s going to be fun. There isn’t a whole lot to say about these two teams besides the fact that they’re obviously very good. It’s Seattle’s running attack against New Orleans’ passing attack.

In years past, I would have definitely taken the Seahawks (10-1) at home giving only 5 points, but this Saints (9-2) team can play decent defense too, so they won’t be out of it. And you know how quickly Brees and the gang can strike on offense. I think we’ll see a field goal here, and I actually think New Orleans can win it. Either way I think 5 is too much.

Last week : 4-9-0

Season : 15-22-2

 

Week 12 NFL Picks

There goes my streak of perfect mediocrity…

After the afternoon games last week, I had an even record of 5-5-2. With two primetime games left, I figured I would split them again, almost like destiny. I was wrong on the KC-Denver game, so I needed to get the Monday Nighter. And I would have if the refs had called pass interference on Luke Kuechly in the endzone and given Tom Brady another shot from the 1-yard line.

And it doesn’t even matter if I actually agree with the non-call (which I do), I’m still allowed to blame the refs for screwing up my .500 week because this is my blog and I can do what I want.

(I actually broke this gif down frame-by-frame on a random site, and when the significant contact begins, the Carolina defender has already started his jump on the ball. No way Gronk gets there before he does).

Now, it’s one thing to be wrong more times than to be right, it’s another to understand why. This is a process, and I don’t expect to be Johnny Handicapper 3 weeks in. What I do know is that I need to pick more home teams. I took 10 teams on the road last week out of the 14 games, and I went 2-7-1 in those games. So, here are my Week 12 picks, with a concerted effort to pick more home teams.

And because I want to change my luck a bit, I’m also changing the style/appearance of my picks. The team I’m taking will be always be in bold from now on, while the home team will be in italics. A lot of times, it’ll be both, because I’ll be picking a lot of home teams.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) over San Diego Chargers

Again, absolutely no respect for Kansas City (9-1) who’s playing at home (in one of the loudest stadiums) against a weaker divisional opponent in San Diego (4-6). If you buy in to the theory that Vegas generally gives 3 points to the home team by default, that means that, on a neutral field, this is basically a pick-em game. Seriously? I think Kansas City bounces back from its first loss in Denver and takes this one easily.

Baltimore Ravens (-4) over New York Jets

Geno Smith showed me why I shouldn’t bet on him on the road last week, losing 37-14 to the Bills. I don’t really trust either of these teams; the Jets are somehow holding the 6th seed in the AFC at 5-5, while the Ravens are suffering from a Super Bowl hangover at 4-6. However, I read a cool article about how hard John Harbaugh works every week, and that’s enough to swing me to the Ravens side for this week, so I’ll take the home team here.

Cleveland Browns (-2) over Pittsburgh Steelers

I don’t really have a reason to pick the Browns besides defaulting to the home team. Signs would point to Pittsburgh (4-6) having the momentum edge over Cleveland (4-6) after last week given that the Steelers crushed the Lions while the Browns were crushed by the Bengals, but I’m kind of cheering for the Browns to make the playoffs, so this is a game they need to win.

Detroit Lions (-7) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a great line. Most people (like me) are still leaning towards the Lions (6-4) because the Bucs (2-8) aren’t really any good, but 8 points is still a lot, and Detroit hasn’t had a convincing win since Week 5. But hey, now’s as good a time as any. Tampa Bay hasn’t won on the road yet, I think the Lions have their way with them today.

Chicago Bears (+2) over St. Louis Rams

Fact: Chicago (6-4) is tied for 1st in the NFC North. Fact: St. Louis (4-6) is last in the NFC West. Fact: Kellen Clemens is playing quarterback for the Rams. Fact: The Bears are somehow underdogs here.

Green Bay Packers (-6) over Minnesota Vikings

I would say that the fact that Green Bay (5-5) is still without Aaron Rodgers would be an issue, but Minnesota’s (2-8) quarterbacks aren’t any good, so it doesn’t matter. It’s basically Adrian Peterson vs. Eddie Lacy+Jordy Nelson+Jarett Boykin. I’ll take quantity over quality.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+10.5) over Houston Texans

What doesn’t Vegas understand? Houston (2-8) does not deserve to be a 10-point favourite to any team, no matter how bad they are. Granted, Jacksonville (1-9) is really bad at football, but newsflash, so are the Texans. And I don’t think Vegas has fully grasped that yet.

Miami Dolphins (+4.5) over Carolina Panthers

Upset special! I think the Dolphins (5-5) win this week. Carolina (7-3) has all the momentum with 6 straight wins, but Ron Rivera is due for a few bad decisions that really hurt his team. This is the classic trap game for the Panthers. They’ll overlook Miami and pay for it. (I think).

Indianapolis Colts (+3) over Arizona Cardinals

How is Arizona (6-4) getting almost as much respect at home against a good Colts team (7-3) as the 9-1 Chiefs are against the Chargers? That’s ridiculous. The Cardinals haven’t really had an impressive win since beating the Panthers in Week 5, and even that, Carolina hadn’t really hit their stride yet. The Colts just keep going: they’ve rolled off at least two straight wins after every loss this year. Given that they lost just two weeks ago, the pattern should continue this week.

Oakland Raiders (+3) over Tennessee Titans

Maybe Oakland (4-6) isn’t bad? The Raiders keep bringing in a new quarterback who’s the “guy of the future”. It was Terrelle Pryor earlier this year, now it’s Matt McGloin, who teammates apparently call McLovin. I’m sold. Plus, the Titans (4-6). They’ve lost 6 of 7 games, their only win coming when Jake Locker was back. In other words, the Titans haven’t won without Jake Locker under center this year. He’s out for the year now. I’ll take the Raiders.

New York Giants (-3) over Dallas Cowboys

Look out, here come the GGGGGGG-Meeeeeeeen. All of a sudden, the Giants (4-6) are just two games back of the NFC East lead. That’s what 4 straight wins can do for you in this craptastic division. Meanwhile, Dallas (5-5) is still being mediocre. They don’t ever pick up momentum because they don’t string wins together. Also, they’re 1-4 on the road. Give me the Giants!

New England Patriots (+2) over Denver Broncos

Sunday Night. Manning and Brady. Doesn’t get any better.

If you don’t think the Patriots (7-3) are insulted by being an underdog at home on Sunday Night, you’re kidding yourself. That’s not to take anything away from the Broncos (9-1) who have been spectacular on offense. But you know Belichik and Brady have circled this game on the calendar since the day it was released. According to SB Nation, this is the first time that New England is an underdog at home since 2005. They’ll be motivated as ever for this one. I’ll take the Pats.

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) over Washington Redskins

You know that ESPN thought Washington (3-7) would be good this year to have them in a Monday Nighter this late in the season, but boy were they wrong. And to be fair, San Francisco (6-4) hasn’t necessarily been impressive after their Super Bowl run. Colin Kaepernick didn’t take a big step forward like you would hope; if anything, he’s taken a step back. But their defense is still very good, and Washington’s isn’t. So I’ll take the Niners

BONUS PICK!!!

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+7) over Saskatchewan Roughriders

I know the crowd will be a big factor in this game, and I actually think the Riders will win. But the Ti-Cats could pull it out  they showed that ability in Toronto. Most likely though, this will be a close game no matter who wins, too close for the line.

I’ll go Saskatchewan 26, Hamilton 21, with Kory Sheets as the Grey Cup MOP.

 Last week : 5-7-2

Overall : 11-13-2

NFL Week 10 Picks

This is something I’ve been thinking about doing for a while, and it was once again suggested to me by a friend a few days ago. I don’t consider myself an expert handicapper, but I do watch a lot of football. And anyway, the people that do consider themselves expert handicappers get it wrong just as much as they get it right, so I can’t be much worse. The whole idea of Vegas is so that no matter who you bet for, you probably won’t win much more than 50% in the long run. Some do, but most don’t.

So with that in mind, (i.e. knowing that this is the equivalent to the weatherman of sports), here are my Week 10 NFL picks. If you gamble, don’t blame me if you lose your house on a bet because of a pick I made. And if you don’t gamble, well you get to enjoy seeing me making a fool out of myself.

(Home teams are in bold).

Jacksonville Jaguars (+13) over Tennessee Titans

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the Jags (0-6) are going to get their first win of the season this year. But 13 points is too much for a 4-4 Tennessee squad that’s still trying to re-assimilate QB Jake Locker into the lineup. They only beat the Rams by 7, so I don’t see them getting much more in Jacksonville.

Green Bay Packers (+1) over Philadelphia Eagles

I’d like to know how many times the Packers have been underdogs at home since Brett Favre took over as starting QB in 1993. I’m guessing it’s not many. Green Bay has only started 3 quarterbacks since then, Aaron Rodgers and (the immortal) Matt Flynn the other two. So I guess it’s a good time to mention that Seneca Wallace is getting the start for the Pack today and becoming the 4th member of that group. There are a lot of reasons to pick Philly (4-5) here. Wallace is one of them, as is the fact that the Eagles are 4-1 on the road and are coming off a 49-20 win over Oakland in which Nick Foles had 7 (seven!) touchdown passes. But I’m sticking with the Packers (5-3) at Lambeau. Green Bay finally has a good running game, so the loss of Aaron Rodgers, though significant, is not as bad as it would be in years past.

Buffalo Bills (+3) over Pittsburgh Steelers

This has historically been a tough place for the Bills (3-6) to play, they’ve dropped 6 straight in Steel City. But these aren’t your father’s Steelers (2-7). Pittsburgh has the 2nd worst rushing defense this season, and that plays right into Buffalo’s gameplan. The Bills aren’t a bad team either. They have a pretty good defense to go along with that good rushing game, and now that they’re getting EJ Manuel back, we may see them pass better. Steelers are a mess. I’ll take the Bills.

New York Giants (-7) over Oakland Raiders

Making 2-6 Giants team a 7-point favourite seems almost criminal, but the Raiders aren’t really any better (3-6) and they’re traveling cross-country to play a 1 o’clock game, historically a tough task. Plus, the Giants are very much in the NFC East division picture. I know that sounds ridiculous, but the New York Football Giants could be just 2 games back at the end of this week. That’s how bad that division is. Oakland is basically done already, but the Giants still have a lot to fight for. That’s important. Look for a double-digit win for the G-Men.

St. Louis Rams (+9) over Indianapolis Colts

Don’t like the Rams (3-6) traveling to Indy here at all. However, the Colts (6-2) have been playing down to their opponents in a few games, only to put all the late-game pressure on Andrew Luck who, invariably, gets it done. I think we see St. Louis hanging close, possibly even leading at some point thanks to Zac Stacy in the running game, and have Andrew Luck close out the game late as he always does. But that means that 9 points are too many.

Seattle Seahawks (-4) over Atlanta Falcons 

So Seattle (8-1) is generally known as a team that fares well at home and that struggles on the road, but I’m not sure that’s fair this season. They beat Carolina by 5, beat the Texans by 3, lost to the Colts, beat the Cardinals by 12 and beat the Rams by 5 so far this year. If the Seahawks would’ve been 4-point favourites in all of those games, they’d be 3-2 in against the spread on the road. The Falcons (2-6), who are getting those 4 points, might be the worst team Seattle plays so far this season away from home. Take the favourites.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2) over Baltimore Ravens

I don’t feel great about this one, but I think this has to be a statement game for the Bengals (6-3). If they win here, all of a sudden they take a 2.5 game lead for the division title going into their bye week. I know they’ve lost some important pieces on defense because of injuries, but they’re still the best team in that division. The Ravens, on the other hand, have lost any mojo they had from their Super Bowl win. Their defense has been ok, but their offense has really struggled. I still think Joe Flacco is vastly overpaid, and that’ll be a storyline that carries for years unfortunately.

Detroit Lions (Pick ’em) over Chicago Bears

Possibly the game of the week, and it could be a shootout. Detroit (5-3) has been one of the nice turnaround stories this season after a 4-12 record last year, while the Bears (5-3) have been pretty good under new head coach Marc Trestman. Both teams can score, but neither are great on defense. (Their defenses are as close to identical as possible when it comes to yards allowed – Chicago’s 26th in the league at 381.1 yards per game, Detroit’s 25th at 381.0).

The Lions finally have some balance on offense thanks to the effective running of Reggie Bush. We all know that Calvin Johnson is a STUD at wide receiver, but the lack of a running game has hurt this team in past years. Until this year. When you think Chicago, you usually think defense, but not anymore. You can score on these guys, and I think the Lions will do a lot of it. I’ll take Detroit in a field-goal game. Worst-case scenario, you just throw it up to Megatron and hope for expect the best.

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) over Carolina Panthers

If you prefer defense over offense, the Niners-Cats game might be the game of the week for you. Carolina (5-3) has been the surprise team of the year, while San Francisco (6-2) has won 5 in a row since losing to Indianapolis at home in Week 3. And they’ve both had weak schedules in the past month.

And just like Detroit and Chicago were equally mediocre on defense, you could argue that no two defenses are as similarly good as the Panthes and 49ers. They’re 3rd and 6th respectively in yards allowed per game, 2nd and 4th respectively in points allowed per game. These are two teams that rely on a strong front-7; if you like battles in the trenches, this is your game.

In the end, though, I think Carolina gets a slight wake-up call that making the playoffs in the NFC won’t be a cake-walk. They still have a decent chance for one of the two wildcard spots, but I think San Fran is too much to handle this week. Plus, it’s never a good idea to bet against Jim Harbaugh coming off a bye.

Arizona Cardinals (-3.0) over Houston Texans

The fact that this line is this low shows how little people believe in Carson Palmer, but he has a lot more help than Case Keenum does with the Texans. Houston (2-6) is banged up and its defense isn’t close to being the same one we saw last year. Arizona (4-4), on the other hand, has a solid defense that should stifle the Texans; Andre Ellington has broken through in the backfield for the Cards, and you can run on Houston. Plus, besides an opening week loss to the Rams, Arizona’s other three losses have come to the Saints, Seahawks and 49ers (who have a combined record of 20-5). Cards aren’t terrible.

San Diego Chargers (+7) over Denver Broncos

Now, generally it would be a bad idea to bet against Peyton Manning coming off a bye, but in this case I think the Chargers (4-4) are getting too many points at home to not take them. As good as the Broncos (7-1) have been this season, they’re a mediocre 4-4 against the spread, while the Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS. And San Diego is better than its 4-4 record in my opinion. Besides a strange midnight-start loss to the Oakland Raiders, the Chargers have lost by one point to the Texans, 3 points to the Titans, and in overtime to the Redskins. Their passing offense has been solid, and if there’s one things you can do against the Broncos, it’s throw the football. I think we’ll see a shootout here, but San Diego keeps it close. I’ll take the points.

New Orleans Saints (-7) over Dallas Cowboys

We’ve seen this before. Drew Brees, on primetime, against an opponent that’s beginning to feel good about themselves, and then BAM! Last time it was a 38-17 shallacking of the Dolphins, and I see a similar script against the Cowboys. Keep in mind that Dallas (5-4) has yet to beat a winning team this season. They have been able to keep those games close, and that’s thanks to their ability to pass, but New Orleans (6-2) defense is almost as good as its offense. The Boys won’t have the same ease of throwing the ball as they have in other losses, and for that I think this game gets out of hand late. WHO DAT NATION!

Tampa Bay Buccanneers (+.2.5) Miami Dolphins

It’s the We’re-A-Mess Bowl! Tampa Bay (0-7) is still winless following a crushing overtime loss to the Seahawks, while Miami (4-4) is dealing with the whole Richie Icognito situation. I’m not sure how the Bucs have free-fallen so quickly, but it begs the question…what has been more detrimental to Tampa’s locker room this season, head coach Greg Schiano or the MRSA staph infection outbreak? Either way, Tampa Bay’s still looking for its first win….and I think it comes tomorrow night! Because, (speaking of messy locker rooms), the Dolphins have been rocked by the Icognito thing and I think the distractions are too strong this week.

There you have it. I’ll update my record as we move along, check back next week (probably Friday) for Week 11 picks.

What We’ve Learnt From the First Month of the NFL Season

Peyton Manning is a good QB, but we already knew that. So what have we actually learnt from the first month of the NFL season?

We’ve heard it before : “it’s not a marathon, it’s a sprint”. Trying to make affirmative statements after a few weeks of NFL action is usually misguided; case in point, the Arizona Cardinals were 4-0 after Week 4 last year before coming down to earth (very hard) to eventually finish 5-11.

That being said, 4 games (or 3, or 5 in a few cases) is still a reasonable sample in football given the fact that teams only have 16 games to put it together for the playoffs. You can’t make the playoffs after 4 weeks, but you can ruin your chances if you dig yourself a big hole, just like the 0-4 teams have done. NFL teams tend to evaluate their outlook after every month, so I’m going to do the same.

For this exercise, I’m looking at what we’ve learnt from every NFL team after the first month. They can’t be things we (should) already know. We haven’t learnt that Peyton Manning is a good QB after 4 weeks because we already knew that. We didn’t learn that the Jaguars are a bad football team because we already knew that too. Maybe we didn’t know that Manning would do this well or that Jacksonville would do this badly, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone.

So with that in mind, here is one thing we’ve learnt from all 32 NFL teams thus far (I’ll also use the opportunity to give my updated Power Rankings).

1. Denver Broncos (4-0) 

Losing Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil (among others) isn’t as disastrous as it might’ve been. It definitely helps when your quarterback has thrown a record 16 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the first month, but the Broncos defense is doing just fine without last year’s standouts Elvis Dumervil (who signed with the Ravens as a free agent) and Von Miller (who is serving a 6-game suspension). The defense has looked good and should get even better when Miller comes back. Again, it helps when you don’t spend too much time on the field.

2. Seattle Seahawks (4-0)

The Seahawks play in the world’s loudest stadium atmosphere. We already knew it was loud, but we weren’t sure if it was the loudest. But now we do. Guinness measured the noise in Seattle’s September 15th game against San Francisco at a record-breaking peak level of 136.6 decibels. You can’t blame the fans for being excited; Seattle has a dominant defense that is already creating Super Bowl buzz.

3. New Orleans Saints (4-0)

The Saints can play defense, too. We know Drew Brees and that New Orleans offense is deadly, but last year the defense was deadly too, deadly as in lock them up because they’ll murder any chance the Saints have of making the playoffs. But now that they’ve brought back Sean Payton from his questionable suspension and that they’ve brought in defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, the Saints are becoming a complete team. They haven’t allowed more than 17 points this year after allowing the second-most points per game last season (28.4).

4. New England Patriots (4-0)

Tom Brady can’t turn everything into gold immediately. Nobody doubts the abilities of Terrific Tom, but this is a tall task, even for him. No Gronk, no Hernandez, no Amendola. He’s led his team to an undefeated start, but that includes a nail-biting, last-minute come-from-behind win against Buffalo and a sloppy (apparently frustrating) victory against the Jets. He’s already starting to figure out, as exemplified by his excellence this past Sunday against Atlanta, but it’s not going to be easy for these Patriots.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)

Andy Reid is still a good coach. The players kind of gave up on him in Philly, but Andy Reid can still coach, and he’s turned the Chiefs around on a dime. Alex Smith deserves some credit too at QB, but Reid has Kansas City playing well on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs have outscored opponents 102-41 and have already doubled last year’s win total.

6. Miami Dolphins (3-1)

Ryan Tannehill might actually be the answer at QB for Miami. They added some pieces to help Tannehill out, and so far he has generally delivered. He may be one of the less talked-about sophomore QBs, but he has progressed from last year. His completion percentage is up from 58.3% in 2012 to 65.5% so far this year, good for 8th-best in the NFL. He’s still prone to making a few bad decisions here and there, but with that pretty good defense, it looks like he’ll be good enough to get Miami in (or close to) the playoffs.

7. Chicago Bears (3-1)

Marc Trestman can coach in the NFL too. He’s been good for QB Jay Cutler and the Bears are looking pretty good because of it. The defense is still boss at creating turnovers, and now Trestman has been able to get the offense to translate some of those TO’s into points. Second-most points, to be exact (127).

8. Detroit Lions (3-1)

The Lions are a competitive team when they have an actual running game. Playing in 3 of the 4 games this season, running back Reggie Bush is 6th in the NFL with 84.7 rush yards per game. The Lions have averaged 31.6 points in those three games. Add in that already powerful pass offense with a rejuvenated defense, and Detroit is already making some noise in the NFC North.

9. San Francisco 49ers (2-2)

Colin Kaepernick doesn’t have everything figured out just yet. “What’s that you say? Who? Oh Alex Smith? Yeah, no he’s gone to the Chiefs now.” I think San Francisco will figure it out. The defense is too good, the offensive line is too powerful and Colin Kaepernick is too skilled to let this season crash and burn. But seeing back-to-back weak performances from Kaep in crazy-loud Seattle and then at home to the Colts must’ve been slightly unsettling for the 49ers.

10. Indianapolis Colts (3-1) 

The Colts are serious about contending this year. Trading for former 3rd overall pick Trent Richardson is an affirmation that Indy thinks its a legit playoff contender. They’re kind of a weird team: they beat the Raiders, lost at home to the Dolphins, caught the 49ers on a weird Aldon Smith week to stun them in San Fran, and then destroyed the Jaguars (who hasn’t). But now it gets tougher though. Of their next 11 games, 9 are against teams with records of 2-2 or better.

11. Tennessee Titans (3-1) 

Jake Locker is a legit #1 starter in the NFL. Unfortunately, he’s out for 4-6 weeks with a hip injury. But before his injury, he was able to post a 62.2% completion rating, a 99.0 QB rating, and is the only QB besides Peyton Manning to have thrown at least 5 TD’s an no interceptions. We’ll see how their pretty good defense will hold up in his absence.

12. Houston Texans (2-2)

Matt Schaub might be bad enough to keep Houston out of the playoffs. This could be devastating, because it limits the possibility of seeing more of the somehow-even-more-scarier-than-usual version of JJ Watt that we got to see this past Sunday. Also seen in that game, though, was a brutal Matt Schaub pass that was turned into a game-tying pick-6 by Richard Sherman, setting up Seattle’s come-from-behind win in Houston. It would be a shame for Houston not to make the playoffs with all the talent they have on that team, especially on defense.

13. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)

Amazing reality TV doesn’t necessarily translate into amazing football TV. Ok, I may be overselling Hard Knocks a bit, but I don’t think I’m underselling the Bengals inconsistency. Lots of quality players on both sides of the ball, and that was evident in their wins against Pittsburgh and Green Bay. But road losses to Chicago and especially Cleveland were less than inspiring. The AFC North is theirs for the taking if they can clean things up.

14. Green Bay Packers (1-2)

The Packers should try to skip Week 3 from now on. Maybe it’s a curse. They’ve now lost three of their past four Week 3 games (yes, this is what I spend my time doing) despite having only 14 total losses since the start of 2010. They lost to Cincy in Week 3 this year in a game that they should’ve won, sending them to their bye on a losing record. Same start last year, thanks to the infamous Fail Mary game that ended up being the proverbial straw on the camel’s back for NFL replacement refs. They have an important divisional matchup this week at home to Detroit, and I think they bounce back.

15. San Diego Chargers (2-2)

Philip Rivers isn’t done just yet. I’d say Rivers has been the most surprising QB so far this season. A lot of people thought he was on his last legs, but so far he hasn’t shown it. If it weren’t for Peyton Manning, we’d all be talking about Rivers right now. as the best QB in the league. His 118.8 QB rating and 11 passing TD’s both rank second in the NFL to Manning. The Chargers are really just a few plays from being 4-0; both their losses were field-goal games.

16. Atlanta Falcons 

WR Roddy White is actually a huge part of their offense. Unfortunately, he’s been very limited up to this point with an ankle injury. He’s doing a bit more every week, but right now teams are making sure Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez are well covered, so Matt Ryan hasn’t been able to get the offense going as well as last year. Losing RB Steven Jackson hurts too, but Atlanta doesn’t depend that much on their running game anyway. Keep in mind that their 3 losses have come to teams with a combined 11-1 record, so I wouldn’t call them a bad team just yet.

17. Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

Joe Flacco definitely played over his head during Baltimore’s 2013 SuperBowl run. I mentionned in my NFL preview blog that we would probably be saying this eventually, but it’s only taken 4 weeks to make a strong argument for it. Only Eli Manning has a worse QB rating among passers with at least 150 attempts. That’s not a good sign for a team that has the 28th ranked running game (64.0 yards/game). They can play better, but they’re not among the elite.

18. Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

The Boys are who we thought they were. Nothing too surprising with Dallas so far. We know they have talent on the offensive side with Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray, but they’re not going to play well for the full 60 minutes every time out. That’s just who they are. Their 2-2 record is reasonable; they beat the Rams and the Giants and lost to the (surprising) Chargers and undefeated Chiefs. After 4 weeks, they’re probably where they should be. Luckily for them, the NFC East is brutal, so 8-8 could take it.

19. Cleveland Browns (3-2)

They’re actually not tanking after all. This is a shocking development. After they traded former first-round pick Trent Richardson to the Colts, everyone and their dog thought the Browns were throwing the season to make a run for Teddy Bridgewater or JaDaveon Clowney. Not so fast. They’ve reeled off three consecutive wins against the Ravens, Bengals and Bills. Obviously TE Jordan Cameron has been a beast in those games, but the return of WR Josh Gordon from a drug violation suspension has been an equally important factor to their success.

20. Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Tyrann Mathieu can keep up with the big boys. The rookie out of LSU has been all over the field, recording 29 combined tackles (tied for 6th among all safeties), adding one interception and one forced fumble. Along with the superstar that is Patrick Peterson, the Cardinals secondary is pretty good. Arizona beat Tampa and squeaked out a win against a pretty good Detroit team to sit .500 after 4 games. Still a tough road to make the playoffs though.

21. Philadelphia Eagles (1-3)

Chip Kelly hasn’t revolutionized the NFL. Besides one impressive half against the Redskins DC’s, the Eagles haven’t been that great on offense. They can put up some points here and there, for sure, but they play so fast that they end up having an ineffective offense in the grand scheme of things. I always thought Kelly’s offense was a weird concept: what 350-pound offensive linemen is going to want to run up and down the field to get to the line of scrimmage 6 seconds after the last play ended? Sure, the pace will tire the opponent’s defense, but over 16 games, don’t think it won’t have some wear and tear on some of the Eagles players too. I suppose it wouldn’t hurt to have a defense that could make some stops.

22. New York Jets (2-2)

Rex Ryan isn’t about to be fired just yet. At the start of the season, Ryan had 3/2 odds of being the first fired head coach. But what people didn’t realize is that he had tricks up his sleeve: he was able to intentionally injure Mark Sanchez (that’s my theory) to plug in rookie Geno Smith, who has done enough to lead New York to wins over Buffalo and Tampa Bay. Not really impressive wins, but whoever had Ryan getting fired at those odds must be kicking themselves right now.

23. Buffalo Bills (2-3)

The Bills front office is kind of near-sighted. Look, there’s probably a reason the Bills are plunged into a neverending misery, and it starts with the guys wearing suits sitting in the luxury boxes. You have a rookie quarterback in EJ Manuel who, like a lot of the young QBs nowadays, likes to run. He’ll probably get hit, and he might just get hurt. Lo and behold, it happened last night. And it looks like Manuel will be out for at least a few weeks Well, it’s a good thing you have Jeff Tuel, an undrafted rookie who went 4-22 in college, as your backup. Way to plan ahead…

24. Washington Redskins DC’s (1-3)

They don’t have much of an offense if RG3 doesn’t run. Teams aren’t really scared of Griffin’s running dimension right now (because it’s tough to run on one knee), so they’re daring him to throw it. Up to this point, he hasn’t been able to make them pay. Last year, RG3 actually had great numbers as a passer (ranked #1 in DVOA  for QBs with more than 100 attempts). But maybe that was because teams had to load the box to stop him from running. In any case, if Washington can’t run more spread option, the outlook is looking bleak for this season. Especially when the defense can’t stop anybody.

25. Oakland Raiders (1-3)

The Raiders may have finally found a quarterback. Dante Culpepper, Josh McCown, Bruce Gradkowski, Charlie Frye, Jason Campbell, Carson Palmer. Those are the last 6 guys before Terrelle Pryor to have attempted at least 50 passes for the Oakland Raiders. Ouch. Maybe, finally, the Raiders have found themselves a future quartberback. Pryor has been very respectable, completing 67 of 111 passes for 779 yards and 4 TD’s in two-and-a-half games. He’s also added 198 yards on the ground. Too bad he’s playing on a bad team.

26. Carolina Panthers (1-2)

Ron Rivera needs to be let go. In the same vein as Rex Ryan, Rivera was in that list of coaches being favoured to be fired, only Rivera had a much better line at 11/2. Kind of an interesting play. He may have saved himself for a few weeks with a 38-0 shellacking of the New York Giants before Carolina’s bye week, but he’s made countless bad decisions already this year (as he usually does). You’ve got to think that losses to Buffalo and Seattle are more indicative of Carolina’s season than the win over New York; if that’s the case, Rivera has to be on his way out soon.

27. St. Louis Rams (1-3)

The Sam Bradford experiment is over. Seriously. If you watched the Rams game against the 49ers a few Thursdays ago, there’s no way you can disagree. He made some awful throws. The entire Rams offense looked lost. At some point, you have to go in another direction. This is his 4th year, and he doesn’t look to be trending upwards by any means. If you hang onto him too long, all of a sudden you’re out of the playoffs for 8 years, and that’s just unacceptable.

28. Minnesota Vikings (1-3)

Even the best running back in the world can’t make up for how bad the Vikings are. After 4 games, Adrian Peterson has 421 rushing yards, good for 2nd best in the NFL, and a league-best 5 rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately, Minnesota’s defense has given a 4th-worst 30.8 points per game. Add in the mess that is the quarterback situation (where Christian Ponder and Matt Cassell are trying to out-awful each other), and you have a team who doesn’t have much on its resume this season besides a win over the equally hapless Pittsburgh Steelers. You’re welcome, England.

29. New York Giants (0-4)

They’re not a good football team. Pretty simplistic, but a lot of people expected them to be pretty good. They’ve definitely been the surprise awful team this season. They’ve been brutal running the football, which has forced Eli to throw too much, often forcing him to make throws in bad situations. He leads the NFL with 9 interceptions. Overall the Giants have the 30th ranked offense and 32nd ranked defense. Not good.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4)

It’s time for a rebuild in Steel-town. I didn’t expect them to be good this year, but I didn’t think they’d be this bad either. No running game has translated into a brutal offense overall. If only we could’ve had some way of predicting that Todd Haley wouldn’t have success leading Pittsburgh’s offense. Oh, yeah. He oversaw the 4th worse scoring offense from 2009-2011 as head coach in Kansas City. Right.

31. Tampa Bay Buccanneers (0-4)

Missing the team photo is not a good idea when you’re the starting quarterback. Neither is being voted out of captaincy by your teammates. In two years, Josh Freeman went from being a really good QB, to a bad QB, to a mess, to a free agent. I can’t remember any QB crashing more quickly in recent memory. And with that, the Buccaneers would like to welcome you to along the ride towards the lottery pick.

32. Jackonsville Jaguars (0-4)

TV stations actually need to apologize on the Jags behalf. Jacksonville is awful (to nodbody’s surprise). So awful, in fact, that the CBS-Orlando station actually apologized for having to broadcast Jacksonville’s game against Oakland. Under NFL rules, the station needed to broadcast the game to the Orlando region because it is considered a secondary market for the Jaguars. Pretty sure the Jacksonville Jaguars are the ones who should apologize for being outscored 129-31. In case you can’t count that quick, that’s a point differential of negative 98 points. In 4 games. Yeeeeesh.

The Eight Tiers of Super Bowl Contention

Led by former MVP Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay is one of the preseason Super Bowl favourites.

It’s that time again.

The NFL is back, and not a moment too soon. The season kicks off tonight with the annual Thursday night opener pitting the Super Bowl champs, in this case the Baltimore Ravens, against a marquee opponent, in this case the Denver Broncos. This year’s version has a little twist to it as the defending champs will be on the road (instead of being at home as they usually are) since the Baltimore Orioles decided that they’re too good now to make a few compromises for their football brethren.

I thought about doing a full preview of the league, team-by-team, but I’m tired of that, and I’m sure you are too. Instead, I’m dividing the league into 8 groups (and I realize that’s already the case, and that they’re named “divisions”, but these are different groupings). Because here’s the thing: as of right now, all 32 teams technically have the same chance of winning the Super Bowl, but we know that, in reality, that’s not the case. It’s like in George Orwell’s Animal Farm: all teams are equal, but some are more equal than others (it’s literature, check it out).

So with that said, here are the eight tiers of Super Bowl contention, from the weakest to the strongest.

1. Not a chance : Arizona Cardinals, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders

One thing that will be apparent early on is that the NFC is much stronger than the AFC.

As the name would suggest, this group doesn’t have much to hope for in 2013 besides landing a high draft pick and drafting either Teddy Bridgewater or Jadeveon Clowney in the 2014 Draft. The Jags, Jets and Raiders don’t yet have a real answer at quarterback, and that’s not a good thing. Their offenses will struggle, and because of that, their defenses will be tested much too often.

As for the Cards, someone has to have the worst record in the NFC, and it’ll probably be the weakest team from one of the strongest divisions, which Arizona happens to be.

2. Still No : Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, San Diego Chargers, Tennessee Titans

Another three sub-par AFC teams and an unlucky NFC team. The Bills and Titans, like the 3 AFC teams in the first group, are far from solid at QB, while Phillip Rivers seems to be losing stock by the minute in San Diego. The Panthers, like the Cards, find themselves in one of the toughest divisions of the toughest conference and will suffer because of it, although if Cam Newton bounces back this season, it could be a different story.

One of these first 8 teams could surprise a few and make a run at the playoffs if things fall into place, but their odds of challenging for a Super Bowl are slim to none.  

3. It’s a Long Shot : Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, St. Louis Rams

Things are beginning to look up slowly, but these teams are still far from solid. There are a lot of question marks surrounding these four squads that could decide whether they grab a playoff of spot or a top-5 pick. Will Norv Turner’s arrival as offensive coordinator help Brandon Weeden take the next step to become a solid QB for the Browns? Are the Lions closer to the 10-6 team that made the playoffs in 2011 than the one that collapsed in the second half of 2012 to finish 4-12? Can new head coach Chip Kelly’s supersonic offense revitalize Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and the rest of the Eagles offense? Is Sam Bradford the answer in St. Louis, and does he have enough weapons to help him? Unfortunately, the answer to all of these questions is probably not.

4. Doubtful : Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s starting to get interesting, but we’re still not quite at real contenders just yet. That being said, these are all teams that can make the playoffs if they put things together. The Cowboys still have a great passing attack; the Chiefs should be a lot better than last season, thanks to upgrades to their head coach, quarterback and defense; the Dolphins aren’t great but aren’t bad; and the Steelers, just like their QB, just seem to grind it out when you most expect them to fail. Dallas will have a hard time making the playoffs in that strong NFC, but the Chiefs, Dolphins and Steelers all have a shot in what should be a pretty wide open AFC playoff race.

5. If Things Go Their Way : Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

These are teams that need some “luck” on their side (I’m sorry, I had to), but they could be sneaky sleepers. The Bears need to be able to protect Jay Cutler in Marc Trestman’s new scheme so that the offense can approach the level of play of the defense. The Colts need even more of Andrew Luck this year because, as Bill Barnwell of Grantland writes, they may not have as much of the other (more common) type of luck in 2013. The Vikings need Adrian Peterson to break Eric Dickerson’s record because Christian Ponder isn’t really a great QB; apparently that shouldn’t be a problem, at least according to Peterson. And the Bucs need Josh Freeman to not do what he did in the second half of last season, especially in the tough NFC South, so that Tampa can be competitive.

There are no guarantees here, but one of them could make a run in the playoffs if everything goes well.

6. Don’t Count ‘Em Out : Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, Washington Redskins

They’re not the sexiest picks, but you just can’t count them out.

Aside from the Redskins, these teams all have good playoff pedigree and are three of the 4 last Super Bowl champions. It’s not like they don’t have weaknesses, but you can hide those over the course of 3 or 4 playoff games, just like the Ravens themselves did last year, thanks to what will most likely be remembered as “those 4 games where Joe Flacco played way over his head”. As for the Redskins, I think they take another step in Year 2 of the RG3 era, as long as he can stay healthy.

Out of all these teams, however, I think New Orleans is the one to watch for as a “surprise” (if any of these can be a surprise). They may not have a great defense, but they sure have a good offense, and having head coach Sean Payton back from his bounty-gate suspension not only makes a difference tactically, but also in overall mindset and emotions. I think they’re going to be in “Screw the NFL” mode. Score a touchdown to put you up by 30 points with 2 minutes left in the game? Go for two. This is definitely revenge time for the New Orleans Saints.

7.  They Will Compete : Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers

No surprises anymore. Anyone of these last eight teams has a very legitimate shot to lift the Vince Lombardi trophy come early February. They either have an elite offense (Falcons), an elite defense (Bengals), or a good balance of both (Patriots and 49ers). They may not make it to the Super Bowl, and they may not even win their division (ok, except for the Patriots, that’s almost a given); but nobody should be surprised to see any one of these teams go deep in the playoffs.

8. Definite Contenders : Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks

Again, no surprises. These are the my 4 conference finalists. They’re the 4 teams with the best balance on both sides of the ball. You could make an argument against each of these, but it would be either biased, nonsensical or pedantic.

For example, a lot of people are scared of Von Miller’s 6-game suspension, but I’m not one of them. Peyton Manning is apparently back to full arm strength and will limit any damage caused by Miller’s absence, and the Broncos will have him afterwards for the important games anyway. Houston QB Matt Schaub may not be among the elite, but that defense is, and at this point I’m not convinced that J.J. Watt can’t play quarterback too. The Green Bay Packers will be perennial contenders as long as they have Aaron Rodgers, and the Seattle Seahawks defense is so scary I’m surprised they haven’t scared all the Skittles out of Marshawn Lynch. These are the best bets, in my opinion, to contend for the Super Bowl.

And because I’ve gone this far, I may as well go a bit further. Like I said, these are my 4 conference finalists. I have the Packers and the Broncos facing off in the Super Bowl, with the Packers taking home the Vince Lombardi trophy.

Sorry Packers fans. I had to jinx someone.