Finally. Welcome back to hockey, everyone.
The last time we saw some meaningful puck, Alec Martinez, everyone’s favorite Spanish-American (who grew up in Michigan and California), lifted the Kings to their second Stanley Cup in 3 years with possibly the easiest overtime goal in the history of hockey.
Stick on the ice, kids.
And if that last word of Canadiana advice made you think about him again, yes, Don Cherry is back on TV for the foreseeable future, as part of the Rogers mega-team that includes most of the CBC crew as well as a few Anakin Skywalkers from TSN. And sure, Cherry has never been one to be into the bells and whistles, but boy does Rogers have some toys to work with in their new Death Star of a studio.
Just look at that cool magic puck thingy at #3 that does everything Artoo can do and more.
If you haven’t figured it out by now, Rogers is the Sith. (Spelling is key folks). But no matter the new platform, the game is still the same. And there’s a lot to get to, so let’s get to it.
Here’s what you’ll find here. All teams ranked from 30 to 1 going into the season, divided into five (uneven) groups : The Basement, Outside Looking In, The Bubble, Playoff Bound, and Legit Contenders. For every team, you’ll get a Trending status, Reasons for Hope, Reasons for Doubt, the FPR Spotlight Player (for a full explanation on FPR, click here, and for the purpose of this article, players have to have played a minimum of 40 games last year), and finally a Slightly Appropriate GIF. Enjoy!
THE BASEMENT
30. Buffalo Sabres
Trending : Slightly up.
Reasons for Hope : The talent level on this team is slightly better than dreadful (which it was last year) with the acquisition of Matt Moulson, Brian Gionta and Josh Gorges. Plus, Ted Nolan is too prideful to not put up a fight no matter what he has on his roster. This is a guy that went to coach in Latvia for goodness sakes. But more importantly, Connor McDavid and Jake Eichel are both potential franchise changing players who are draft eligible in 2015.
Reasons for Doubt : Matt Moulson, Brian Gionta and Josh Gorges don’t make you go from the league’s worst to a playoff team. The Sabres were in the bottom 10 in both powerplay and penalty kill last year, gave up a ton of shots on goal, and were overmatched in almost all areas of the game. The team is slightly better, but nowhere near good enough to compete, even in the East.
FPR Spotlight Player : This part of the preview would generally be where I highlight a forward whose production has been undervalued, but given that Andrej Sekera (a defenceman) led the team in FPR at 4.42, that’s not really possible. Sekera is a decent player but still isn’t that productive, even for defencemen. And it’s really hard for D-men to crack this rating system given that it’s more geared towards forwards. Just goes to show how terrible this team was last year. Only one other club was led in FPR by a blueliner; spoiler alert, that team doesn’t is pretty low in these rankings as well.
Slighlty Appropriate GIF :
Yes, that’s former NHLer turned Swiss Leaguer Paul Ranger with the kicking-the-stick shootout attempt. You know life as a Sabre is embarassing when Paul Ranger trolls you.
29. Carolina Hurricanes
Trending : Way down.
Reasons for Hope : Anton Khudobin is actually one of only three goalies in the NHL to have played at least 50 games while recording at least a .925 save percentage and 2.25 goals against average. The other two are Cory Schneider and Tuukka Rask. That’s good company. If Khudobin gets the majority of starts (which isn’t guaranteed), he might be able to lift the Canes to mediocrity (which is not bad in the East).
Reasons for Doubt : With Jordan Staal out for at least 3 months with a broken leg, Carolina’s depth chart down the middle is depleted, not to mention that brother Eric just recovered from a “core muscle injury”. So the Canes are currently rolling with Staal, Nathan Gerbe, Jay McClement and Riley Nash at center. Ouch. Plus, Jeff Skinner has missed the start of the season with a concussion, further crippling the top-6. Not good.
FPR Spotlight Player : In his first year of a big contract extension, Alex Semin was extremely productive with the Canes. At 8.70, Semin’s FPR ranks him ahead of the likes of Patrick Kane, David Backes and Jordan Eberle. It’s easy to typecast Semin as an offensive player who floats in and out of games, but last year his Relative Corsi was better than Sidney Crosby’s and Anze Kopitar’s.
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
Life without one of the bros on the ice will be tough to watch.
28. Ottawa Senators
Trending: Down.
Reasons for Hope : Obviously the Sens are hoping that the big contract and the big letter they gave to Bobby Ryan and Erik Karlsson, respectively, only further motivate them to improve their already solid play. Plus, just when you think you have the Senators figured out, you’re usually wrong. Three years ago, most people had them pegged as a bottom-feeder, and they squeaked into the playoffs. #PeskySens became a thing and the legend of Paul Maclean was born. The next year, many expected a slight regression, but they made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs. Last year, many had them winning the division, and they missed the playoffs. So I guess they’re winning the conference this year?
Reasons for Doubt : The depth is certainly an issue. Although the Jason Spezza trade is a solid one for the future in my mind, it doesn’t do much in the short-term. Ottawa has some glaring holes, notably at center and in the bottom six. Plus, even when Robin Lehner and Craig Anderson were healthy last year, they were unimpressive to say the least, whereas goaltending had been the backbone of this team in the few years prior.
FPR Spotlight Player : Long recognized as a darling of advanced metrics, Clarke MacArthur took another step forward last year with career highs in goals (24) and plus-minus (+14). At 8.73, MacArthur’s FPR puts him right alongside Semin.
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
“Here’s the captaincy Erik. There you go”. “Thanks! Wait, what? Hang on, Jason! Come back!”
27. Winnipeg Jets
Trending : Even.
Reasons for Hope : I do like some of the pieces moving forward. Mark Scheifele and Jacob Trouba will eventually form a true stud cente – stud D-man duo. That’s the start of a real good foundation for any club (the only missing ingredient being a stud goalie). I think Evander Kane continues to be undermined in that market, but he’s either a solid contributor or a great trade asset. And putting Dustin Byfuglien up front should help the overall team play.
Reasons for Doubt : Two things need to change for this team to have any chance in the West (and they’re linked to some extent). One, the Jets need a goalie. Ondrej Pavelec is the worst starter in the NHL by any measurable, whether it be statistical or anecdotal. Of the 29 goalies who played in at least 29 games last year, Pavelec had the worst save percentage of all of them. And the gap between Pavelec’s save percentage and Evgeni Nabokov’s (.910) was the biggest between any two goalies on that list. Two, until the Jets really become the Jets (and not just the Winnipeg Thrashers), this team isn’t going anywhere.
FPR Player Spotlight : Despite what I just finished saying about the Jets needing to cut ties with the former Thrashers, former Thrasher Bryan Little had a great season last year. Little scored a career high 64 points last year (13 more than his previous high with Atlanta in ’08-’09). At 9.70, his FPR was more than a full point higher than the next best Jet (Andrew Ladd).
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
This is what it feels like to have Ondrej Pavelec in net.
26. Calgary Flames
Trending : Up.
Reasons for Hope : This team might have struggled to win games last year, but man did they battle. And that’s a healthy mindset that stays with a team, especially when the main leadership core stays intact (which it has). And adding a competent NHL goalie in Jonas Hiller can only help. Plus, with Sean Monahan, Mikael Backlund, Johnny Gaudreau and now Sam Bennett, the Flames are building up a solid forward nucleus. This team will be good in a few years.
Reasons for Doubt : Calgary is still pretty raw up front, and lacks depth on the back end after Mark Giordano and Dennis Wideman. The Flames were bottom 10 in both goals scored and allowed last year, and I don’t see it getting that much better on either end. If anything, losing third-leading scorer Mike Cammalleri and effectively replacing him with Mason Raymond is certainly a downgrade on offense.
FPR Spotlight Player : I mentioned with the Sabres that Andrej Sekera was one of only two defenceman to lead his club in FPR. The other? Calgary captain Mark Giordano, who was actually a solid 56th overall in FPR rankings at 8.59, just ahead of Patrick Kane (8.56). Giordano was second in assists (33) and points (47) among all Flames players, all the while recording an impressive +12 on a struggling club. Add in his reliable defensive play, and you understand why Giordano was in the conversation to make Canada’s Olympic squad.
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
The Flames might not be a powerhouse, but they’re feisty.
25. Nashville Predators
Trending : Still down.
Reasons for Hope : Seth Jones was a solid player last year, and he has the tools to become a stud (breaking news). With perennial Norris candidate Shea Weber and rising star Roman Josi also on the blueline, and a healthy Pekka Rinne in goal, there’s no doubt that defensive play has to be the backbone of this club. Adding a proven scorer like James Neal might help bump the powerplay up a few notches as well.
Reasons for Doubt : The theme continues with these bottom clubs and center depth. Olli Jokinen, Mike Ribeiro, Colin Wilson, Filip Forsberg, and Mike Fisher (when he comes back) are all decent NHLers, but none of them should be counted on to go up against the outstanding center depth in the Western conference, and that’s what’s going to happen. Jokinen, Ribeiro and Neal should all help the offense, but man does it need help. Aside from those guys, Craig Smith is the forward to have recorded a 20-goal season in his career.
FPR Spotlight Player : And that 20-goal season for Craig Smith? Last year! He was actually a solid producer, ranking in the top 50 in FPR (9.02), scoring 24 goals and 52 points. Decent, considering he didn’t have much help.
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
Take a nap, folks. Or change the channel.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
24. Arizona Cardinals
Trending : Slightly down.
Reasons for Hope : Oliver Ekmann-Larsson is probably one of the most underrated defencemen in the league, if only because of where he plays, and Mike Smith should be able to further utilize his puck handling skills (and diving skills) with the extended trapezoid. The Coyotes are the Nashville Predators of the Pacific, managing to be competitive year in, year out despite their obvious lack of talent. Remember when the Yotes made the Conference Finals in 2012? That team wasn’t really that much better than this one. And the new name should reinvigorate the club.
Reasons for Doubt : …but I don’t really dig the new name. I understand that the Coyotes may as well try to extend their market reach as far as possible, but I’m generally against teams using a state as their location name. Florida? Just call it Sunrise. (How cool are the Sunrise Panthers, seriously?). But as far as the actual roster goes, there’s reason to believe that they won’t have the 4th best powerplay again (that was actually a thing that existed), especially with the loss of Radim Vrbata and Mike Ribeiro.
FPR Spotlight Player : Remember when Martin Erat was relegated to the press box and Washington and reluctantly traded him to the Coyotes? Well, somehow he ended up leading the (remaining) Phoenix Arizona players in FPR…at 4.88. (If you’re wondering, that’s on par with guys like Benoit Pouliot and Gabriel Bourque). The next closest were Rob Klinkhammer, currently listed as the team’s 4th line centre, and Shane Doan. Looking at all the numbers, I’m befuddled as to how the Coyotes were anywhere close to a playoff spot, but it looks like Erat might help out heir production with the departure of Vrbata.
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
“That’s Arizona Coyotes to you”.
23. Florida Panthers
Trending : Up.
Reasons for Hope : First overall pick Aaron Ekblad is not too far away from being a stalwart on the blueline in the NHL, while Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov offer a solid one-two punch offensively moving forward. Plus, a full season from Roberto Luongo in net can’t hurt. And despite the fact that all the money thrown around doesn’t amount to a huge upgrade, the addition of guys like Dave Bolland and Shawn Thornton should only improve Florida’s last ranked penalty kill. (They were also dead last in powerplay percentage as well, so there’s only one way to go there too).
Reasons for Doubt : The last time the Panthers spent a bunch of money on average NHLers (in 2011 to guys like Sean Bergenheim, Tomas Fleischmann, and Ed Jovanovski), they made the playoffs, yes, but in hindsight it was only a mirage; Florida won the division despite winning only 38 games (3 more than 13th place Toronto), recording 18 overtime and shootout losses that helped them pretend to be a playoff team (they lost to the Devils in the first round). That ended up stunting their growth, as Florida has finished last and second last in the East since. You can’t cheat a rebuild.
FPR Spotlight Player : He’s far from a star producer, but Scottie Upshall recorded career-highs in assists (22) and points (37) last year…in his 12th season! Good for him. Add in a decent Relative Corsi rating (4.7) and the fact that the Panthers were a full goal per game better when Upshall was on the ice, and you get yourself a solid 6.25 FPR. Maybe last year was the outlier, but it was a fun outlier at the very least.
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
The Cats are coming.
22. New Jersey Devils
Trending : Even
Reasons for Hope : Cory Schneider has proven throughout his career that he’s a great goaltender, so the fact that he won’t be splitting starts with Marty Brodeur is a big plus. And the Devils have a whole bunch of household names on their roster (Jagr, Elias, Cammalleri, Ruutu, Havlat, Ryder); most of them are well past their prime, but there’s something to be said for experience I guess. This team will do the opposite of outscore you. They’ll out-defend you and out-trap you.
Reasons for Doubt : This sorta-kinda feels like the post-lockout Leafs (from like 2006 to 2010), no? Basically a retirement home for bordeline, washed up NHLers. Obvisouly a few notable differences, like the fact that Cory Schneider is infinity times better than Vesa Toskala or Andrew Raycroft or Justin Pogge or Mikael Tellqvist (I mean ewwww), and that Tomas Kaberle couldn’t make the Devils this season. But you would hope by now that Adam Henrique would have become a stud center, and that has not been the case. Which leaves the Devils scrambling for stop-gaps every year.
FPR Spotlight Player : I spoke about washed up guys, but Jaromir Jagr isn’t that (still), at least from a production standpoint. Jagr scored 67 points last year, his best NHL output since 07-08, which lifted him to a 12.14 FPR, by far the best on the Devils (Travis Zajac was next at 6.06), and better than the likes of Jonathan Toews, Chris Kunitz and Joe Pavelski. He’s still a fun player to watch.
Slightly Appropriate GIF : http://nesncom.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/854298135.gif?w=500&h=279
Most of the guys on this team are in the “get off my lawn” stage of their career.
21. Edmonton Oilers
Trending : Barely up.
Reasons for Hope : Hope itself, in a sense. We’re still expecting that “next step”, especially from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov and Justin Schultz, and it’s hard to imagine that they’re anywhere close from having stopped improving. They may all be upended by Leon Draisaitl, who had a great camp and has already jumped to the 2nd center spot. Goaltending and defence was also a big issue last year (and years past), and despite the fact that they’re not world-beaters, Viktor Fasth, Ben Scrivens and Mark Fayne are all upgrades to the roster.
Reasons for Doubt : That said, the West is so good, and their roster is still overmatched in relation to the legit contenders. Keep in mind that the Oilers could improve by 20 points this year (a substantial jump) and still only have 87 points overall (which would have been 4 shy of a playoff spot). It’s hard to say that they’re getting closer when they keep finishing last. But the biggest reason for doubt in my books is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. There’s fear there that he’ll never be close to what he was projected to be because of his size and durability.
FPR Spotlight Player : I really liked the trade for David Perron last year, and I still do today. Perron had a solid year production-wise, as his 7.58 FPR puts him right alongside Martin St. Louis and and T.J. Oshie. Career-highs in goals (28) and points (57), which is solid production from a 2nd line player. I think he’s done well to justify the trade so far.
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
The Oilers are sooo close to making that next step though.
20. Philadelphia Flyers
Trending : Down.
Reasons for Hope : This team was definitely carried by its offense (3rd best scoring team in the East) and special teams (top-8 in both PP and PK), and the Flyers still have most of the pieces to continue that success this season. The depth down the middle is solid, with Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier, Brayden Schenn and Vinny Lecavalier. There are no studs on D, but there are 6 quality blueliners that give Philly some solid versatility.
Reasons for Doubt : Trading away Scott Hartnell for R.J. Umberger could have a negative impact on the offense (including the powerplay), because the trio of Giroux-Voracek-Hartnell was one of the best in the league last year. Their most versatile defenceman, Kimmo Timonen, is out for months if not more with blood clots (retiring isn’t out of the question). And most notably, goaltending is still an issue, as Steve Mason hasn’t shown he can be the guy he was in his rookie year on a consistent basis, a bad sign for a team that makes a lot of mistakes in its own end.
FPR Spotlight Player : Jakub Voracek finally broke out last year with his first 60 point season (62), well over his previous career high of 50. He was durable as well, playing all 82 games and recording a +12. His 10.26 FPR was better than Logan Couture and Pavel Datsyuk. It’ll be interesting to see if Voracek (and Giroux) regress with R.J. Umberger instead of Scott Hartnell.
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
This team is all offense.
THE BUBBLE
19. Vancouver Canucks
Trending : Up.
Reasons for Hope : If this were last year, they’d definitely be trending down, but as a direct comparison to last season, things should be better this upcoming campaign. Ryan Miller is still a solid goalie and an upgrade on Eddie Lack, while Radim Vrbata is as good a winger as the Sedins have played with in a while, maybe ever. Losing Ryan Kesler hurts, but Nick Bonino is an underrated player who should be, at the very least, an average second line center. The Sedins took a step back, but I think they have a bounce back year. And the depth on D is not bad.
Reasons for Doubt : Obviously it starts with Henrik and Daniel. If they continue to decline, that $7 million dollar contract (for each) looks even uglier than it already does. That could really hamstring what the Canucks are able to spend elsewhere. And there’s always worry in Vancouver that goalies could either a) underperform, b) have the starter-backup situation mishandled, c) demand a trade, or d) all of the above (as we saw not once, but twice with Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider).
FPR Spotlight Player : I mentioned Radim Vrbata being one of the best linemates the Sedins have ever had, but the same is probably true for Vrbata having the best linemates in his career as well. His FPR last year wasn’t that great at 3.77, but if you remember the rankings from Arizona’s preview, neither was anyone else’s. He should get loads of scoring chances this season, especially on the powerplay.
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
You know it’ll take like two weeks for Ryan Miller to go from King to being thrown to the hyenas.
18. New York Islanders
Trending : Way up.
Reasons for Hope : The areas where the Islanders were terrible last year, namely defence, goaltending, and any offense after the first line, have all improved for this season. Chad Johnson and Jaroslav Halak are definitely an upgrade on Evgeni Nabokov (second last in save percentage among goalies with 50 starts), Kevin Poulin and Anders Nilsson, while the additions of Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy, two solid NHL D-men, make it so that Travis Hamonic doesn’t need to play all of the minutes. And Mikael Grabovski and Nikolai Kulemin are reunited to add some much needed depth of front. They’re far from Cup contenders, but their roster looks a lot better today than one year ago. Finally, let’s mention that the Isles are one year away from leaving The Nassau Coliseum (Of Asbestos) for the sparkling, shiny new Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
Reasons for Doubt : John Tavares looks pretty good so far with 5 points in 2 games, but he is coming off a major knee injury, and he was so-so at best in the preseason. I heard Isles beat reporter Arthur Staple say it looked like both Tavares and Kyle Okposo looked out of sync and were “trying to do too much”. Sure, that was just the preseason, but the Isles can not afford to have their top line falter if they have any hope of making the playoffs. Plus, who knows what Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk will do outside the shelter of the sound defensive clubs that are the Blackhawks and Bruins, respectively? It feels almost too good to be true.
FPR Player Spotlight : There’s a recurring theme here with players recording career-highs, and the same was the case for Kyle Okposo last year. After a solid rookie season where he finished 4th in Calder voting, Okposo struggled the following years…until last year. 27 goals, 69 points, and the 10th best FPR in the league at 13.65, ahead of Patrice Bergeron and Phil Kessel. I think he’s officially made that next step.
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
Islanders are like, “yo we’re in New York too!”
17. Colorado Avalanche
Trending : Slightly down.
Reasons for Hope : There’s a lot to love here, starting with the one-two punch of Matt Duchene and Nathan Mackinnon down the middle. Man, is that some speed and skill. Gabriel Landeskog is a budding star on the wing, and Tyson Barrie is one of the most underrated blueliners in the league. But let’s get back to Mackinnon for a second. I think we’re about to see a sophomore jump, not slump. I wouldn’t be surprised if he scored 30 goals and 80 points. This guy is so much fun to watch. Not to mention that the Avs added Jarome Iginla, who’s still a quality producer in this league.
Reasons for Doubt : The advanced metrics say the Avalanche were a lucky team last year, thriving on outstanding goaltending and timely scoring to win the division (something that isn’t expected to continue over time). The puck possession numbers say Colorado was probably not even a playoff team, all else considered equal. And those are the same stats that predicted the eventual Leafs demise. At some point, you’re due to regress, and unless the defensive play improves, that’s likely to be the case with the Avs this year.
FPR Spotlight Player : Did I mention I like Nathan Mackinnon? He pretty much shined in every facet in his rookie season, including FPR, where his 9.07 was in the top 50 of the league, ahead of Milan Lucic. Apparently he’s bulked up this offseason to become an even better physical specimen. With that speed and puck sense, he’s scratching the surface of superstardom.
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
Those wheels though.
16. Toronto Maple Leafs
Trending : Slightly down.
Reasons for Hope : The analytics movement inside the organization has already started to have a positive impact. The bottom-6 was one of biggest areas of concern last year, and it has been completely overturned. Gone are Colton Orr and Frazer McLaren, replaced by guys like Daniel Winnik, Leo Komarov, and Mike Santorelli. If everything else stays relatively close to the same except for better production from the bottom-6, the Leafs should be a playoff team. Jonathan Bernier and James Reimer still form a solid 1-2 tandem in net.
Reasons for Doubt : A lot went well last year, and it still wasn’t enough. The top line was fantastic, as was the goaltending overall. Both could regress. And just because the Leafs are investing in puck possession, it doesn’t mean coach Randy Carlyle is going to do anything about it strategy-wise. If Jake Gardiner, Morgan Rielly and Nazem Kadri don’t see the ice more often, things might not improve significantly. And with the Leafs, it always feels like the more things change, the more they stay the same. Defensive zone play is still an issue, and unless it’s resolved, this team is a pretender, not a contender.
FPR Player Spotlight : For all the talk of the Leafs not having a “true number one center”, Tyler Bozak had a very productive year. It helps to play between Phil Kessel and James Van Riemsdyk, but not enough credit is given to Bozak in that discussion. His FPR was 2nd on the team (just behind Kessel’s). He’s their best faceoff guy and plays in all situations.
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
But keep stuffing the Leafs down everyone’s throat.
15. Washington Capitals
Trending : Slightly up.
Reasons for Hope : Death, taxes, and Alexander Ovehckin scoring goals. A lot of people like to harp on Ovechkin’s defensive play, but he remains the best goal-scorer in the game. He’s the only player to have 30 or more goals in every year since the lockout (that includes a 32-goal season in a 48 game season back in 2012-2013). It’s just taken for granted now; there was almost no excitement over his 50 goal season last year. You know how many other active players have scored 50 or more twice in their career? Two. Dany Heatley and Steven Stamkos. Aside from Ovechkin, the Caps shored up their blueline by overpaying for signing Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik.
Reasons for Doubt : Last year the Caps weren’t happy with Braden Holtby, so they acquired Jaroslav Halak in an attempt to upgrade their goaltending. This year, they’re going back to Holtby, and that’s still an area of concern. The defensive play is also an issue (Washington was bottom 10 in goals allowed, and none of those 10 teams made the playoffs), as is goal scoring after Ovie (Troy Brouwer and Joel Ward were 2 and 3).
FPR Player Spotlight : Speaking of Joel Ward, the former UPEI Panther (yeah CIS hockey!) had a career high in goals (25), assists (24), and, obviously, points (49). But more importantly, Ward was not a liability defensively; his team was a full goal per game better when he was on the ice (while the Capitals were over a goal and half per game worse when Ovie was on the ice). Because of that, he put up a team-high 6.48 FPR last year.
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
I wonder if Barry Trotz can do anything for Ovechkin’s defense.
14. Detroit Red Wings
Trending : Even.
Reasons for Hope : Gooooose. Gustav Nyquist arrived last year in a big, big way. In a 23 game stretch from January 20th to April 2nd, Nyquist scored 23 goals in 28 games. 23 in 28! He finished with 47 points in 58 games, and it’s going to be exciting to see what he’ll do in his first full year with the Wings. Lot of good young players here, starting with the Tomas’ (Tatar and Jurco), as well as Riley Sheahan and D-man Danny DeKeyser. And it won’t be long for 1st rounder Anthony Mantha to make the show either.
Reasons for Doubt : The two aging stars, Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, have struggled to stay healthy in recent years, and already Datsyuk is our for a while after suffering a separated shoulder.There’s a big drop-off in talent after Niklas Kronwall on D, and there’s worry that Jimmy Howard might be on the decline as well.
FPR Player Spotlight : This one is certainly off the board, but Riley Sheahan quietly had a productive year in 42 games with the Wings. His Relative Corsi was better than Justin Williams and Bryan Little, and Detroit was more than 1.5 goals per game better with Sheahan on the ice. If Pavel Datsyuk’s injury is worse than expected, don’t be surprised if he climbs up the depth chart and finds himself as the #2 center at some point.
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
Gooooooooose. This is the Detroit way. Win. Puck. Battles.
13. New York Rangers
Trending : Down.
Reasons for Hope : It obviously starts with the King in net, Henrik Lundqvist. Arguably the best goalie in the game, there’s a good chance that he could single-handedly lift the Rangers to a playoff spot. His numbers are staggering : a career .920 save percentage and 2.26 GAA…in 574 games. Neither of the two other active goalies that have those kind of numbers (Rask and Schneider) have even cracked 200 career games. It’s amazing durability. There’s some really good players on defense, led by newly appointed captain Ryan McDonagh, as well as Marc Staal, Dan Girardi and even Dan Boyle. Up front, I think we see a breakout year from Chris Kreider. He has all the tools, and we started to see glimpses of it in the playoffs (13 points in 15 games).
Reasons for Doubt : The Rangers are suddenly depleted at center. They lost Brad Richards to free agency, and now Derek Stepan is out indefinitely with a broken leg. As of right now, it looks like Kreider will play some center, along with Derrick Brassard, JT Miller, and Dominic Moore. That’s not strong down the middle. And there’s a pretty big drop-off already after the top two lines. Secondary scoring could be an issue.
FPR Spotlight Player : Latvian Mats Zuccarello had his coming out party in the playoffs, especially against the Kings – he only had 2 points in the Stanley Cup Final, but that line (with Pouliot and Brassard) was the best one for the Rangers in the series. But he had a solid season with 59 points, a 6.4 Relative Corsi and a +.62 plus minus differential. His 8.54 FPR led all returning Rangers.
Slightly Appropriate GIF :
The Rangers hopes for now rest on the shoulders of this guy.
PLAYOFF BOUND
12. Columbus Blue Jackets
Trending : Up.
Reasons for Hope : The one-two punch down the middle is great. Finally with a contract, Ryan Johansen should continue his march towards becoming one of the league’s best centers. He had 33 goals and 63 points in his first full season with Columbus, and it’s not inconceivable to see him (eventually) reach 40 goals and 90 points. And Brandon Dubinsky is a great number two center. He adds a bit of offense, but more importantly, can frustrate opponent’s best players (exbhibit A : Sidney Crosby in last year’s playoffs). This team is feisty, and relies on great goaltending from BOBROVSKY!.
Reasons for Doubt : The Jackets aren’t so loaded with talent that a step back is out of the question, and it starts with health. Dubinsky is out for 6 weeks with a lower body injury, while Nathan Horton and Boone Jenner are out as well. Plus, who knows how long it takes Johansen to get back into game form after holding out for the entire preseason? That great one-two punch needs to be just that, great. Otherwise, there could be issues.
FPR Spotlight Player : Let’s go back to Brandon Dubinsky for a second. He’s a solid defensive center, as I mentioned, and chipped in 16 goals and 50 points as well. The Jackets are one of only 6 teams returning two such offensive centers (along with the Bruins, Avalanche, Islanders, Penguins, and Lightning). He was among the leaders in plus-minus for CBJ at +5, and he’s a great faceoff man and penalty killer to boot. Those last qualities don’t show up in FPR, but his rating was still second on the team at 6.63 behind only Johansen.
Appropriate GIF : When healthy, Dubinsky is one of the best shutdown forwards in the league. He’s the key to any amount of success in the playoffs for CBJ.
11. Dallas Stars
Trending : Up.
Reasons for Hope : With the acquisition of Jason Spezza and Ales Hemsky, the Stars top-6 is officially stacked. It’ll be interesting to see exactly how it looks, but for now it seems that they’ll go Tyler Seguin – Jamie Benn – Ales Hemsky and Jason Spezza – Valeri Nichuskin – Antoine Roussel. With Seguin, Spezza and Benn, the Stars are one of only three teams who carry 3 players with 65 points or more last season (Pittsburgh and Chicago are the others). Offense should not be a problem…
Reasons for Doubt : …but defense might be. Their D-corps still doesn’t inspire confidence, and it’s difficult to put too much trust on Kari Lehtonen, especially in the category of health (he’s already questionable for the season opener with a concussion). Last year, the Stars allowed 2.72 goals per game; among playoff teams, only the Flyers were worse defensively. And unless things change in the defensive zone, it’ll be difficult for Dallas to compete with the powerhouses in the West.
FPR Player Spotlight : I could focus on the fact that Jamie Benn (15.48) and Tyler Seguin (15.09) were 4th and 6th respectively in the league in FPR, but we already know that those guys offer great production. Someone you probably know less about? Ryan Garbutt, who was third in FPR among Dallas players last year at 5.74, a rating higher than Jeff Carter’s, Wayne Simmonds’ or Nazem Kadri’s. Garbutt was third in goals with 17, and his team was half a goal better per game when he was on the ice.
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If you don’t pay attention to Dallas this year, that’s fine. Just know that you’ll be missing some entertaining stuff.
10. Minnesota Wild
Trending : Way up.
Reasons for Hope : This might be one of the teams I’m most interested in this season. They showed in the playoffs that they’re almost ready to be a perennial contender, and I’d like to see that begin this year. The Wild’s roster is reaally deep. When you have guys like Erik Haula, Charlie Coyle, Nino Nidorreiter and Matt Cooke in your bottom six, you’re doing very well. Same with the blueline; Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin and Marco Scandella form a solid top 4. And despite what he did in the playoffs, Thomas Vanek is a great addition. Man I like this team. Don’t disappoint me, Minny!
Reasons for Doubt : Although I like the Vanek signing, there’s a chance he could destabilize the chemistry in that room. The lines were well established last year, and now Vanek comes in…does he squeeze himself into the top-6? And in place of whom? Plus, the goaltending situation is somewhat murky; Nicklas Backstrom hasn’t made more than 46 starts in any of the past three seasons, while Josh Harding is obviously in a tough spot health-wise dealing with MS (the fact that he still continues to fight to play is fantastic). And Darcy Kuemper has made 40 career starts (playoffs included); not exactly the kind of experience you would hope to bank on.
FPR Player Spotlight : Just to highlight what the Wild are getting in Thomas Vanek, the Austrian scored 27 goals and 66 points combined between the Sabres, Islanders and Habs last year. He would have ranked third in goals and first in points on the Wild with those numbers. His 12.30 FPR was 17th in the NHL last year, ahead of Toews and Giroux, and just below Kessel.
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Remember, Koivu missed almost 20 games for the Wild last year. He’s healthy once again.
9. Montreal Canadiens
Trending : Up.
Reasons for Hope : A great run in the postseason sets the expectations a little higher for this year. The Habs have one of the league’s best goalies in Carey Price (that .971 save percentage in the Olympics was amazing). PK Subban just inked a huge deal, and he’s worth the money. I think he grew immensely as an all-around player last year. If the young guns like Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher keep getting better, so will this team. And I think Tom Gilbert was one of the most sneaky-good signings of the offseason.
Reasons for Doubt : The blueline is still a an area of weakness (relative to the rest of the team). Andrei Markov has lost a step with age, while the youngsters Alexei Emelin, Nathan Beaulieu and Jacob Tinordi have struggled to make an impact so far in their career. Plus, Josh Gorges was often the guy to reign in Subban, and he’s gone now. Up front, the Habs have a tendency to be very streaky, and they were one of only two playoff teams that were outscored 5 on 5 (Flyers were the other).
FPR Spotlight Player : A great move in the offseason saw the Habs getting P.A. Parenteau and a fifth round pick for Daniel Brière. (I don’t know what Colorado was thinking either). Parenteau has 70 goals in 264 games in his career, a 22 goal per year pace. Based on the numbers, he becomes the second-best goal scorer on the Habs, and last year his 9.53 FPR was top-50 in the league (ahead of Mackinnon and Lucic). He should help that offense.
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Everyone in Canada is looking at you, Montreal. But with great power comes great responsibility.
8. San Jose Sharks
Trending : Down.
Reasons for Hope : Look, the roster is still solid. Forget what happened in the playoffs and move on. Thornton, Couture, Pavelski, Marleau, Hertl and Wingels form a formidable top-6. And giving more ice time to Couture and Pavelski doesn’t hurt. Defensively, Marc-Édouard Vlasic is still one of the best shutdown guys, and Brent Burns is good wherever he plays. On paper, this is still a 50-win team.
Reasons for Doubt : But hockey isn’t played on paper. There’s already a lot of tension around there with how things went down in the postseason, and it continued in the offseason when the Sharks took away the captaincy from Thornton and basically tried to make things as uncomfortable for him as possible (so he’d waive his no-trade clause?). I fear things could unravel there. And the goalie situation is still not ideal. Neither Antti Niemi nor Alex Stalock really took the reigns in the playoffs. They do well in the regular season (because of how good the team is), but if San Jose starts playing poorly in front of them, they might not be able to steal games.
FPR Spolight Player : I mentioned Brent Burns earlier. He’s starting the season on the blueline, but I’m interested to see how long that lasts. He was playing with great players last year, but Burns had the second best FPR on the Sharks at 11.77, good for 22nd league-wide. He’s a physical force and is great on the powerplay. That being said, there’s so much depth up front that it makes sense to balance things out by putting him on the back end.
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That time Tomas Hertl embarassed Marty Biron to the point where he retired from the NHL less than two weeks later.
7. Tampa Bay Lightning
Trending : Up.
Reasons for Hope : The Bolts finished 4th in the East despite missing Steven Stamkos for most of the year and having their captain bail on them at the trade deadline. They had a lot of production from their youngsters, especially calder nominees Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat. This year they add Jonathan Drouin to the fold, and he has the talent to step in and contribute immediately. They also have Vezina nominee Ben Bishop in net, and they added Jason Garrison and Anton Stralman to solidify their blueline. Lots to like here.
Reasons for Doubt : Before last year, Ben Bishop had never had a GAA better than 2.45; last year, it dipped to 2.23. The question is obviously whether last season was a breakout season or an outlier. If it’s the latter, it spells trouble for a Lightning team that has dealt with its share of goaltending issues in the past. Bishop played 63 games last year (before ultimately getting hurt); he had 67 games before last year in his career. So it’s not like he’s been doing this for a long time. Up front, there’s a feeling that the group of forwards played over their heads last year. We’ll find out if that’s true or not.
FPR Spotlight Player : The calder trophy runner up, Ondrej Palat, broke out with 23 goals and was one point shy of joining Nathan Mackinnon as the only rookies with 60 points. For what it’s worth, Palat also finished 11th in Selke voting, a testament to his well-rounded game. The numbers back it up as well, as the Lightning were almost a goal and half better per game when he was on the ice. (WIth Stamkos failing to reach 40 games played), Palat led Tampa with a 8.92 FPR.
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What can’t he do?
LEGIT CONTENDERS
6. Pittsburgh Penguins
Trending : Even.
Reasons for Hope : Having two top-10 players in the league in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin means that the Penguins will almost always be, at the very least, pretty good. The biggest problem with this team in recent years has been secondary (or tertiary) scoring; that should improve this year with the acquisition of Steve Downie, Nick Spalling and Blake Comeau. On the blueline, look for Olli Maatta to become a go-to-guy, while in net, Marc-André Fleury is a great regular season goalie…
Reasons for Doubt : …but Fleury has certainly struggled in the playoffs lately. Since winning the Cup in 2009, Fleury is 21-22 with a .891 save percentage and a 2.94 goals against average (as opposed to his career .910 sv% and 2.62 GAA). I’ve backed the Penguins for a while now, but until they prove otherwise, they have to be labeled as an underachieving playoff team right now, much like the Sharks (the only difference being that the Pens actually won the cup 5 years ago). Pittsburgh has dealt with its share of health issues as well; Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Pascal Dupuis, Kris Letang, and Paul Martin all missed time last year, and that’s basically the core of the team.
FPR Spotlight Player : We know Crosby makes Chris Kunitz a much more productive player, but that doesn’t mean Kunitz is worthless without Crosby. I still maintain that Kunitz earned his spot on Team Canada. He’s scored at least 20 goals in 8 of the past 9 years, and last year he reached a career high in goals (35) and points (68). He has grit to his game and is a perfect fit with Sid. Last year, his 12.03 FPR was 20th in the league.
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Playoff Penguins are so easy to push around.
5. Anaheim Ducks
Trending : Slightly down.
Reasons for Hope : The duo of Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry is as good as any in hockey. They both have size and grit along with elite offensive ability. Getzlaf is second in points in the past two seasons combined, while Perry is second in goals in that same span. The addition of a true number two center in Ryan Kesler should help solidify the top-6. On the back end, Cam Fowler is emerging as one of the best young defencemen in hockey, while the duo of Frederik Andersen and John GIbson should be more than competent in net.
Reasons for Doubt : The Ducks lost a lot of key pieces that complimented the top line. Gone from Anaheim are Nick Bonino (49 points), Mathieu Perreault (43 points), Daniel Winnik (30 points), Saku Koivu (29 points), and Teemu Selanne (27 points). It might not be a star-studded list, but those were 5 of the Ducks 10 top scoring forwards last year. Secondary scoring could definitely be a problem.
FPR Spotlight Player : We know about Getzlaf and Perry, who unsurprisingly were 1-2 in FPR for Anaheim last year, but you’ll probably be shocked to know that Pat Maroon was third at 7.79 (which is just below Ryan Johansen). Maroon’s FPR was helped in large part by his 15.9 Relative Corsi rating (Sidney Crosby’s was 16.0). As of right now, Pat Maroon is practicing alongside Perry and Getzlaf on the top line, so don’t be surprised to see his production continue to grow.
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Bruce Boudreau is like a cartoon character, but also a pretty good coach.
4. St. Louis Blues
Trending : Up.
Reasons for Hope : The Blues are deep, man. With the addition of Paul Stastny, the top-6 looks like this : David Backes, TJ Oshie, Alexander Steen, Paul Stastny, Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko. Wow. And they still have guys like Patrick Berglund, Steve Ott and Maxime Lapierre on the bottom-6. On defence, I think you can make the argument that the trio of Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester and Kevin Shattenkirk is the best trio of D-men in hockey. The Blues are great on special teams as well, ranking top-6 in both PP and PK (the Pens were the only club to accomplish that).
Reasons for Doubt : Goaltending is obviously the biggest question mark. The Blues are going to ride the hot hand between Brian Elliott and Jake Allen. And it’s not that we know these guys are bad, it’s that we don’t know for sure that they’ll be good. Elliott has had a few decent moments in his career (like that .940 save percentage in 2011-2012), but his career save percentage of .911 is just ok. Meanwhile, Allen has only played in 15 career games, and with a save percentage of .905 in those games, he hasn’t shown anything that definitively says he’ll be a star. There’s such a fine line between the great teams in the West and the elite, and right now the Blues are the former. In two of the past 3 years, they lost to the eventual Stanley Cup champions.
FPR Spotlight Player : In his first 82-game season with St. Louis, Vladimir Tarasenko showed a lot of promise. He tallied 21 goals, was 13th in the league with a 17.7 Relative Corsi, and helped his team be more than a goal per game better when he was on the ice. All that translated into the 18th best FPR in the league at 12.25. I think he has a 30-goal season in him this year.
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Sure this might be a few years old, but it might be the best hockey gif ever.
3. Boston Bruins
Trending : Slightly down.
Reasons for Hope : It begins with the Holy Trinity of Defense, namely Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara and Tuukka Rask. Having an elite defensive center, blueliner and goalie is a great foundation to success (the Kings have shown that as well). Boston was the best 5-on-5 team last year, outscoring opponents 1.53 to 1. They allowed the second fewest goals and scored the third most, and have been top-4 in East standings for 4 straight years. Oh, and the roster is still really good.
Reasons for Doubt : Cap issues have forced the Bruins to let Jarome Iginla walk and trade away Johnny Boychuk; they’ll miss both those guys. Iginla had a bounce-back year with 30 goals and formed one of the league’s best trios with David Krejci and Milan Lucic, while Boychuk logged 21 solid minutes a night (a career-high), his 4th straight year of 20+ minutes per game. The outlook for next year cap-wise isn’t that much better; Torey Krug, Dougie Hamilton, Ryan Spooner and Reilly Smith are all RFAs at the end of the season, while Carl Soderberg and Matt Bartkowski are UFAs. It’s so tough to keep elite teams together in the cap era.
FPR Spotlight Player : Among that group of upcoming free agents is Reilly Smith, who had 20 goals, 51 points and was a +28 in his first full year in the league (and he’s started this year on the right foot with a goal in his first game). He also had a 13.3 Relative Corsi, and finished the year with a 8.04 FPR, good for 5th on that stacked Bruins roster.
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No team says “intimidation” like the Boston Bruins.
2. Los Angeles Kings
Trending : Even (at awesome).
Reasons for Hope : Hmmm. This is tough. Let me think. How about bringing back practically the exact same roster that won the Stanley Cup last year? Is that good enough? That includes young guns like Tanner Pearson, Tyler Toffoli and Jake Muzzin getting even better with another year under their belts. I could go on and on, but I don’t think I need to justify the strength of a defending Cup champion. The talent is still there.
Reasons for Doubt : I guess there’s fear of a Stanley Cup hangover, although after their first ring in 2012, the Kings still made the West Final next year. (That being said, things didn’t start glowingly, with a 4-0 shutout loss to the Sharks in the home opener). Plus, it’s sooo hard to repeat in the modern NHL. Aside from that, there’s belief that Jonathan Quick might be a tad overrated. Over the last two seasons (including playoffs), Quick has a .914 save percentage, which is just “good” in today’s NHL, not elite like he’s portrayed to be. (Of 29 goalies that played at least 40 games last year, 18 of them had a .915 save percentage or better).
FPR Spotlight Player : I really like Tyler Toffoli’s game. Last year he scored 12 goals in 62 games (a 16-goal pace) despite playing less than 13 minutes a game. (His point production was basically identical to Pat Maroon’s). Toffoli had a solid 9.9 Relative Corsi, and his team was a goal and a half better per game when he was on the ice. What we saw from Toffoli during the Kings Cup run should be the foundation of what we see this year.
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It’s all about teamwork.
1. Chicago Blackhawks
Trending : Slightly up.
Reasons for Hope : A perennial contender, and it’s really a coin flip between the Hawks and the Kings for number one right now. Like LA, Chicago brings back almost the exact same team as last year, plus Brad Richards, minus Nick Leddy. Richards may not be the same guy he was when he won the Conn Smythe in 2004, but he’s still an upgrade down the middle (as the current #3 center). As for Leddy, the Hawks didn’t play him much in close situations last year in the playoffs because they couldn’t trust him. He’s not that great defensively. It’s not like the blueline is suddenly depleted or anything. They’ll be fine.
Reasons for Doubt : If we’re only speaking of this year, the reasons for doubt are probably few and far between, although goaltending can sometimes be an issue. Corey Crawford has been mostly good, but once in a while he’s still prone to flashes of inconsistency. Also, there’s questions as to where the secondary scoring will come from. Aside from Andrew Shaw, I’m not sure you can expect too much from Marcus Kruger or Kris Versteeg or Daniel Carcillo. But next year is where the questions really come in. Much like the Bruins, the Blackhawks are going to need to make some moves to accommodate the cap situation, mainly because of the $10.5 million dollar cap hit that both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane will own. Brandon Saad is an RFA, while Johnny Oduya and Michael Rozsival are both UFAs. Don’t be surprised if Patrick Sharp is moved at some point this season or in the offseason.
FPR Spotlight Player : He’s often overlooked when we talk about the stars on the Blackhawks, but Marian Hossa is still a great player at the age of 35. Hossa has never won the Selke (last year he finished a career-high 5th in voting), but his defensive play is among the league’s best for wingers (there’s definitely a center bias for that award – of the past 23 winners, only Jere Lehtinen won it as a winger). Hossa hit the 30-goal mark last year for the first time since 2009, had a 9.9 Relative Corsi and a +0.77 plus minus differential. His 10.69 FPR was 3rd on the Hawks and 30th in the league.
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The dirtiest mitts in the game, and he’s a great playoff performer too. The Hawks have all the pieces once again.
PREDICTIONS
There you have it. If you’ve stayed with me this long, you may be interested in my predictions (or not at all, but either way you’ll get them). I have the Lightning making it out of the East to face the Blues in the Stanley Cup Final, with the Blues taking home their first ever Cup.
Enjoy the season!
FANTASTIC FORE 