Welcome to Year 1 of the new NHL playoff format, where divisional rivalries are highlighted, great playoff matchups happen one round too early, and division banners can go to teams in the wrong division.
Seriously, if the Dallas Stars, who play in the Central Division, upset the Anaheim Ducks and then defeat the winner of the Sharks-Kings series, they win the Pacific Division banner. That’s a thing. Anyway, let’s get to it.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Pittsburgh vs. 4. Columbus
Why you should watch : There’s this guy named Sidney Crosby, you may have heard of him. He’s the best player in the world and the runaway MVP. Seriously though, watching Crosby play is always fun because he’s on a completely different level.
This year, Crosby finished with 104 points, 17 more than Ryan Getzlaf. That’s 20% more than the next closest. The last guy to have that significant gap between himself and the next closest point-getter was…Wayne Gretzky, in 1991, when he had 163 and Jaromir Jagr had 131.
And beyond Pittsburgh’s other superstar Evgeni Malkin (I doubt that’s how he likes being referred to), it’ll be interesting to see how Ryan Johansen stacks up against the best (and potentially third or fourth-best) center in the NHL. Plus, you wouldn’t want to miss Columbus’ first ever playoff win (if indeed it happens).
How it can be an upset : Two (or three?) words : Marc-André Fleury. The former Stanley Cup champion has been nothing short of awful in recent playoff years. In 31 postseason games since winning the Cup in ’09, Fleury has an .880 save % and 3.18 goals against average. Not necessarily numbers you can feel confident about. And not to mention that the guy on the other end was 5th (.923) in save percentage among goalies with at least 50 starts. Bobrovsky could very well out-duel Fleury (or Zatkoff, or even Vokoun, who’s apparently close to returning).
Who wins : Pittsburgh in 6. I think Bobrovsky might steal a game or two, but ultimately Crosby, Malkin and that league-best powerplay are going to be too much to handle.
2. New York vs. 3. Philadelphia
Why you should watch : On one end, you have the fire-wagon Flyers who have bounced back from a 1-8 start to storm back into the playoff picture, thanks to another strong campaign from captain and former best player in the world Claude Giroux (I say former only because Peter Laviolette’s opinion became history when he did). On the other side is a stingy New York club that allowed the 4th fewest goals in the league with King Henrik Lundqvist (and, at times, Cam effin’ Talbot) in net.
It’s your classic offense vs. defense battle. And if you’ve seen some Flyers games this year, you know that just about anything can happen.
How it can be an upset : If the Rangers dry up as they sometimes have a tendency to do. In their last 4 playoff exits, the Rangers have averaged less than 1.5 goals per game in their losing series’. Two of those series losses, both in the first round, came against the Washington Capitals, a similar offensive-minded team like the Flyers. Philadelphia had seven 20-goal scorers this year, so if offense becomes an issue for New York, it could spell a problem.
Who wins : Philadelphia in 6. Sure Steve Mason might not be ready for game one, so the Flyers would have to go with Ray Emery, but we all remember Philly making the Stanley Cup finals in 2011 with Michael Leighton in net. This team is about offense, and they’ll overpower New York in the end.
1. Boston vs. 4. Detroit
Why you should watch : The battle between Pavel Datsyuk and/or Gustav Nyquist versus Zdeno Chara is intriguing, as is the coaching battle between Mike Babcock and Claude Julien, two of the best in the game. And if you thought Boston’s dominance in the regular season made them a lock to get to the second round, you might be underestimating those pesky Wings. No team has gone through more adversity with injuries this year, and they’re still competing with the best of them.
How it can be an upset : As I mentioned above, Gustav Nyquist has led Detroit to a fantastic end-of-season run. The Wings went 19-11-5 in their last 25 games, during which Nyquist had 23 goals 14 assists, good for 1.48 points per game (and that’s with just 2 points in his last 6 games). He can be a difference maker. If Jimmy Howard can find his 2012-2013 form, the Wings could be dangerous, just like they were last year when they upset Anaheim in round 1 (and almost upset Chicago in round 2).
Who wins : Boston in 5. With a Vezina trophy candidate in Tuuka Rask, three solid lines up front and the league’s most intimidating defenceman, the Bruins should roll here. Those kids have done some great things in Detroit, but over a long series, I think the Wings lack of depth will be exposed.
2. Tampa Bay vs. Montreal
Why you should watch : The fallout of Douglas Murray’s elbow on Mike Kostka could lead to a very gritty (if not dirty) series. And we’ve seen it from the Habs before, in fact we did last year, when Lars Eller hit Eryk Gryba and all hell broke loose. Countdown to Michel Therrien calling out Jon Cooper for his “lack of respeck” in 5, 4, 3…
Oh, and did I mention that it’s the first time we’ll get to see Steven Stamkos in the playoffs since 2011, when he had 13 points in 18 games in his only postseason, helping Tampa make it to the conference finals.
How it can be an upset : You have one of the league’s best goalies in Carey Price on one end, and nothing but questions on the other. Ben Bishop is out for Game 1, and you don’t know when he’s coming back. And despite the fact that Andres Lindback won the NHL’s first star of the past week, you don’t know what you’re getting from the 25 year old netminder in his first postseason action. Add in the fact that the Lightning have a bunch of rookies on their team, and you could make the argument that Montreal is actually the favorite given all the question marks on Tampa’s side.
Who wins : Montreal in 5. Carey Price showed in Sochi that he’s certainly not scared by the big moment. Max Pacioretty continues to be awesome for the Habs with a career-high 39 goals. Thomas Vanek was a great addition at the trade deadline, and don’t forget Danny Briere, who’s 1.01 points per game is 5th highest among players in this year’s postseason.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Anaheim vs. 4. Dallas
Why you should watch : You have potentially the league’s two best duos facing off in Anaheim’s Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf and Dallas’ Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. Seriously. The Ducks and Stars were the only two teams that had two players in the top-10 in scoring, and they’re facing each other. Perry and Getzlaf combined for 169 points this year, Benn and Seguin 163.
A quick search on NHL.com tells that we haven’t had 4 top-10 scorers in the same playoff matchup in at least 16 years (the NHL website doesn’t date back farther than 1997-1998). Yeah, I know! That’s almost as awesome as getting a Nintendo 64 for Christmas.
How it can be an upset : Anaheim only has 1 playoff series win since their Cup in 2007, and they’ve been upset in the first round in 3 of their 4 playoff appearances since then. After the top line, the Ducks don’t have a lot of big name players (aside from Teemu Selanne, who is turning 156 this year I think). Sure, the Stars have a lack of depth as well after Seguin and Benn, but when you have two teams that rely on primary scoring as much as these two, anything can really happen. Plus, the Ducks are apparently either starting rookie Frederik Andersen or even-more-rookie John Gibson in net. That could be dangerous.
Who wins : Anaheim in 5. As much as I like that Dallas Green, and I mean the jerseys, not the singer (although he’s pretty good too), I can’t see the Stars pulling off the upset. I’d say the Ducks defense corps wins out over the Stars, a group that includes Cam Fowler, François Beauchemin, Hampus Lindholm and the trade-deadline acquisition of Stephane Robidas.
2. San Jose vs. 3. Los Angeles
Why you should watch : This is one of two series that is so awesome you wish you could save it for at least the next round, if not the Conference Finals. Size, speed, skill, defense, goaltending, depth…both these teams have plenty of all of that. Last year we got this matchup in the Conference semis, and it was great. I’m not expecting anything less. There’s a solid chance that this matchup could provide the Stanley Cup finalist from the West. I’m hoping I don’t need to sell you on this any more.
How it can be an upset : Trick question, because this is as close to an even matchup as you could possibly draw up. There isn’t a favorite, so there can’t be an underdog. The forward groups are basically even, the Sharks may have the advantage on defense, but the Kings have the advantage in goal. The home team has won 21 of the past 23 games between these two.
Who wins : I’ll go with the Sharks, and really only because of home ice. The Kings addition of Gaborik to an already strong forward group that includes Carter, Kopitar, Richards and Williams gives LA an added speed threat that they didn’t possess before. But on the other side, you have Thornton, Marleau, Pavelski, Couture, Burns, and soon, Hertl. Defensively, Vlasic and Doughty play the roles of shutdown guys on their respective teams. And Niemi has proven he can go shot-for-shot with anyone, even Quick, when he’s on his game. Home ice means everything in this series.
1. Colorado vs. Minnesota
Why you should watch : First, Colorado is such a fun team to watch. The fancy stats don’t like them too much, but fans do, because they play a very high-tempo, offensive minded game. Which is why Nathan MacKinnon has been able to fit right in as a reliable offensive threat.
Plus, and I’m sorry it took me this long to mention it, but you really never know what Patrick Roy is going to do, especially in his first postseason as a head coach. He started the year by throwing at pane of glass at Bruce Boudreau, and you can only expect him to step up his game on and off the ice during the playoffs. Playoff Patrick gave us the Best Broken English Chirp Ever. Imagine what he’ll do as a coach.
How it can be an upset : The Avs injury list includes Matt Duchene, John Mitchell, Tyson Barrie, Cody McLeod, Cory Sarich and Jan Hejda, and there are a lot of question marks about which ones will be available for Game 1. That’s not good for a team with limited playoff experience to begin with. Let’s not forget that this club finished 29th in 2012-2013, and like I mentioned earlier, their success this year has been had without the approval of fancy stats guys (the same people who warned us of a Leafs collapse all year).
Who wins : Colorado in 6. A sneaky good offense, Semyon Varlamov is solid in net, and there couldn’t be a bigger wildcard out there then Ilya Bryzgalov. Not to mention that Bryz isn’t a fan of the cold, and is probably playing in the coldest and winteries playoff matchup, travelling back and forth between Minneapolis and Denver. Why you heff to be mad?
2. St. Louis vs. 3. Chicago
Why you should watch : This is the other awesome-series-that-we-wish-could-be-the-Conference-Finals matchup. St. Louis fits the mold of the Sharks and Kings as a solid defensive squad with loads of depth scoring. The Blues are suffering from a flurry of injuries, but they should get most of them back, which means we should get a healthy heaping of the David Backes, TJ Oshie, Alexander Steen line, possibly the best two-way line in hockey.
But Chicago obviously ain’t no slouch either. The defending Cup champs are kind of limping into the playoffs, but they’re about to get both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane back from injury. From top to bottom, there might not be a team with more pure skill than the Hawks. That’s the intrigue of this matchup; where the Sharks and Kings are as close to mirror images of each other as we have in the postseason, the Blues and Hawks are actually very different teams. St. Louis beats you with structure, Chicago beats you with skill and hockey sense.
How it can be an upset : Similar to the Sharks-Kings, I don’t think there’s a favourite here, and if there is, it might actually be the Hawks given all the injuries to St. Louis. So I’ll make the case for both (again). St. Louis might be the most well-structured team in the league. Chicago is supremely talented and obviously knows how to win in the playoffs.
Who wins : Chicago in 7. I’m hoping we can get as close to full lineups on both sides as possible, but I fear that the Blues injuries might be too much to overcome. The Hawks are stacked with winners, and I really believe in that. Watch for Duncan Keith, who is my Norris trophy winner, to be a game-changer.
CUP PREDICTIONS
Finally, with the new NHL playoff format, we actually have real brackets. So here’s what I see going down.
SJ over ANA (5). CHI over COL (5). BOS over MON (7). PIT over PHI (6).
SAN JOSE over CHCAGO (6). PITTSBURGH over BOSTON (7)
SAN JOSE over PITTSBURGH (6).
The Sharks win the Cup! There you go. Feel free to ridicule me come June when I’m way off.
FANTASTIC FORE 