Get out the ribbons, the parade floats and the marching band, I finally had a week over .500. Thanks to Josh McCown’s fantastic performance against the Cowboys, I finished with 8-7-1. Yup, it’s sad, but that’s my best week yet.
But hey, if an AFC team can grab the 2nd wilcard seed barely over .500 (which will happen), I should be happy with my latest performance. In AFC terms, I’m a playoff team.
Anyway, here’s to hoping I’ve turned a corner and am heading for brighter and bigger things. Or, most likely, this is the high point of my season.
Once again, picks are in caps, home team in italics.
Washington Redskins (+6) over Atlanta Falcons
This is a destiny pick. Kirk Cousins has only started one regular season game in his career: almost exactly one year ago (December 16th 2012) in a 38-21 win over the Cleveland Browns. He went 26 for 37 for 329 yards and two touchdowns. Not too shabby. Now he gets to go again, this time against another train-wreck of a team, the Falcons (3-10). Sure the Redskins (3-10) aren’t the same team they were last year, but you have to think he’ll be extra motivated, especially after Mike Shanahan said recently that Cousins could be traded for a first rounder.
Chicago Bears (-1) over Cleveland Browns
I had to hesitate here because I don’t like Cutler as much as McCown, so I’m almost scared to take Chicago (7-6) on the road. But then I remembered that they were playing Cleveland (4-9) who couldn’t even hold a 13 point lead with 2 minutes left in the game against the Patriots. The Bears can score, but more importantly, they still have a lot to play for; Cleveland doesn’t. Chicago should win.
Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) over Houston Texans
I’ll keep saying this again. Houston (2-11) keeps getting too much respect from Vegas. They don’t have a good quarterback, their defense is mediocre at best, and now they’ve just fired their coach. In some situations I’d go with the “fired-coach-team will be motivated”, but not when they’re 2-11 and haven’t been playing for anything relevant in almost two months. The Colts (8-5) are ready for a bounce back game after being crushed by the Bengals last week.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) Buffalo Bills
What am I missing here? I know this is Jacksonville, but the Bills (4-9) have no business being favored by 3 points on the road against anyone. The Jaguars (4-9) have actually been pretty good lately, winning three straight and 4 of their last 5. The Bills, on the other hand, have lost 5 of their last 6. Chad Henne has actually been a serviceable quarterback for the Jags; that offense has looked pretty good. I’ll gladly take the points.
New England Patriots (+2) over Miami Dolphins
Listen, the Patriots are hurting (again). Gronk is out for the season. Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins are ruled out. Vince Wilfork and Jerrod Mayo have been out for weeks already. But this is New England, the model “next-man-up” franchise. Tom Brady doesn’t let these games slip, especially when the Patriots (10-3) have a chance to clinch the AFC East and jump over the Broncos for the top first seed in the AFC with a win. According to Pro Football Talk, the Pats have only been underdogs 7 times since 2010, going 6-1 against the spread in those games and winning outright in 5 of them. Against a mediocre Miami team (7-6)? They should be ok.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) over Minnesota Vikings
Both Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart are out for Minnesota (3-9-1), so there goes the running game, the only saving grace for the Vikings. Now they have to rely primarily on Matt Cassel (eeeewww). Meanwhile, Philadelphia (8-5) is rolling: they’ve won 5 in a row, putting up almost 32 points per game during that stretch. If you think Matt Cassel can go toe-to-toe with the Eagles in a shootout, you may need to see a doctor.
On a side note, I wish this game was outdoors, so we’d have the chance to see something like this.
So much fun.
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) over New York Giants
The Seahawks (11-2) can wrap up the division with a win here and basically lock up the top seed in the NFC. On one side, it’s Eli Manning, the league leader in interceptions (20). On the other side, it’s the league’s best defense overall (according to Football Outsiders). That’s not what you’d call a good matchup for the Giants. And now that New York (5-8) is officially eliminated from playoff contention, I can’t see them putting up much of a fight when Seattle inevitably takes a commanding lead.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) over San Francisco 49ers
Trap game! This could be one that the 49ers (9-4) overlook, but they shouldn’t. Since the start of November, the Bucs (4-9) have only lost to the Panthers and the Seahawks, the latter of which was an impressive overtime loss in Seattle (if overtime losses can be impressive). They’ve won 4 of their last 5 and have been much better with Mike Glennon under center. Glennon has a healthy 14-6 touchdown to interception ratio since the bye week, as well as a pretty good 61.6% completion percentage. I’ll go with the points, just because I think San Francisco won’t with this game handily.
Carolina Panthers (-10) over New York Jets
Carolina (9-4) finally ended its 8 game winning streak last Sunday against the Saints, but they’ve been impressive overall this year. There are two reasons why this line doesn’t scare me: (1) Geno Smith on the road, and (2) the Panthers have had several double digit wins this year, six to be exact. They’ve blown out the Giants (38-0), the Vikings (35-10), the Rams (30-15), the Bucs (31-13), the Falcons (34-10) and the Bucs again (27-6). In other words, they take care of weak opponents. The Jets (6-7) are a weak opponent, especially on the road, where they’re 1-5.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) over Oakland Raiders
There we go Kansas City. A dominating 45-10 win in the snow in Washington against (granted) a bad team reaffirmed the Chiefs relevance in the AFC. And after the Broncos were upset by the Chargers on Thursday, the AFC West is not quite locked up just yet. With a win here, Kansas City (10-3) moves into a tie with Denver for the division lead. The Broncos have the tiebreaker, but with 2 games left after, it’s not completely over. Speaking of over, the Raiders (4-9) were never really in the conversation this year and are once again playing for the draft. Just lose, baby.
St. Louis Rams (+6) over New Orleans Saints
I have a note on my Score Mobile App telling me that the Saints have only scored 18.8 points per game on the road this year (they average 26.4 ppg overall). New Orleans (10-3) is 3-3 on the road, while St. Louis (5-8) is 3-3 at home. The Saints might be able to squeak out a win, but I think they’ll have trouble getting their offense together for a while against a decent Rams defense. I see a bad performance by New Orleans overcome by a game-winning drive by Brees, but I think it’ll be within the 6 points.
Arizona Cardinals (-3) over Tennessee Titans
Hey look, the Cardinals (8-5) are still in the playoff race in mid-December! They’re just one game back of the wildcard after winning 4 of 5. I think they’re the sneaky good team of the year, anchored by a very strong defensive unit. If only you could trust Carson Palmer. But I guess you could say the same thing about Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Titans (5-8) have lost 4 of 5 with Fitzpatrick and are only 2-4 at home. Say goodbye to Tennessee’s slim playoff hopes.
Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) over Green Bay Packers
Get in your jokes about the Cowboys (7-6) defense now before I tell you that they’ve won 5 of 6 at home this year, outscoring opponents by an average of almost 9 points. See? Trends in your face. I said it last week, but it bears repeating: the Packers (6-6-1) aren’t (even close to) the same team with Aaron Rodgers (who’s been ruled out again this week). I think we’ll see the final nail on the coffin for Green Bay’s season this week.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
Let’s start out by saying that this is a weak Sunday night game (especially in flex times), but the entire week is so-so as far as “sexy” matchups are concerned (especially compared to last week). That being said, these AFC North divisional games are always good battles and generally close, usually right around a field goal. I think the Bengals (9-4), who can clinch a playoff spot today, will come out strong and overpower the Steelers (5-8). Could very well be a field goal game, but with the line under 3, I’ll take Cincy.
Can I just take a moment to point out the amazing sideline karma that was Antonio Brown’s toe stepping out of bounds in that crazy ending against Miami, especially after what Mike Tomlin did the week before? Football gods are the best.
Bye-bye Pittsburgh playoff hopes. Missed it by that much.
Detroit Lions (-6) over Baltimore Ravens
It’s certainly been an up-and-down season for the Lions (7-6). They look fantastic at times, horrible at other times. But luckily for them, they’re playing a Ravens team (7-6) who’s been just as inconsistent. And where Baltimore has most trouble is on the road (1-5). Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson should have a big game against a mediocre Ravens defense. I’ll take the Lions now assuming Reggie Bush plays, but if he doesn’t, it might be too big of a line. We’ll see.
Enjoy the games.
Last week: 8-7-1
Season: 30-37-4
FANTASTIC FORE 