Week 17 NFL Picks

Week 17 already! Time flies, it’s incredible. And maybe for the best, because I’ve been downright horrible at this. I make the Houston Texans look good. But that’s ok, because the games themselves have been great. And if you really want some betting advice, just go against my picks every time.

16 games, lots to be decided. In the AFC, the top 5 playoff teams are basically set : Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Kansas City. There can be a bit of movement between the top 4, but they’ve all won their respective divisions, so KC is locked into the 5th seed. Only the second wildcard spot is really in play, and the best shots are (in order) : Baltimore (8-7), Miami (8-7), San Diego (8-7), and Pittsburgh (7-8). But the weird part is that there aren’t any “win-and-they’re-in” scenarios for that 6th seed. Everyone needs some kind of help.

We’ll start quickly with the Steelers, who need a win and all other three to lose (because of their record). As for the other three, the tie-breakers are interesting. Obviously, if one of the the three wins and the other two lose, that winner is in. But besides that, here are the other possible scenarios :

– Baltimore clinches with a win and a San Diego loss; or a win and a Miami loss.

– Miami clinches with a win and a Baltimore loss; or a win and a San Diego win.

– San Diego only clinches if Miami and Baltimore both lose (barring ties).

In the NFC, things are more straightforward with 5 of 6 teams having clinched playoff spots, and only 2 fighting for the other wildcard spot. That being said, no divisions have been locked up yet (which is insane), so we’ll start there.

– NFC North : Chicago and Green Bay play each other for the division title.

– NFC East : Dallas and Philadelphia play each other for the division title.

– NFC West : Seattle can clinch the title with a win, San Francisco can clinch with a win and a Seahawks loss.

– NFC South : Carolina clinches the title with a win, New Orleans clinches with a win and a Panthers loss.

– Wildcard : New Orleans clinches with a win or an Arizona loss; Cardinals clinch with a win and a Saints loss.

Now that we’ve set the stakes, let’s get on with the picks.

Carolina Panthers (-6) over Atlanta Falcons

Under a touchdown for this seems criminal. The Falcons (4-11) are really bad at football. You saw what the Panthers (11-5) were able to do to the Saints offense, they should be fine against Matty Ice-cold. The division title is Carolina’s for the taking; the Cats should walk all over the Birds.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+10.5) over Indianapolis Colts

I just think 10.5 is too many points here. The Jaguars (4-11) have only been outscored by double digits once in the past 2 months, going 4-3 in that time. They haven’t been horrible with Chad Henne under center, and “not horrible” should be good enough to cover here. The Colts (10-5) might have a shot at the 3rd seed with a win, but there isn’t a whole lot on the line for them.

Miami Dolphins (-6.5) over New York Jets

A few things you need to know about this one. (1) The Jets (7-8) are just 1-6 on the road this year, (2) they’re 0-7 in every second game (starting in Week 2) being outscored by an average of 19 points (they won last week), and (3) the Dolphins (8-7) have their season on the line.

Baltimore Ravens (+6.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

I think the Bengals (10-5) will ultimately win here, but I think it’ll be a close one. 10 of Batlimore’s 15 games this year have been decided by 6 points or less, including 6 of 7 on the road. Unfortunately, they’ve lost 4 of those 6, and I think we’ll see something similar here.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) over Cleveland Browns

This is the last of the early games that mean anything, and for the Steelers (7-8) it’s win or go home (it actually could be win and go home, but anyway). Pittsburgh has been one of the hottest teams of late, winning 5 of 6 to stay in the playoff hunt. Cleveland (4-11) has been done for a while now, and they’ve pretty much thrown in the towel, losing 6 straight games. They’ll get up for a division matchup here to try to play spoiler, but I still think the Steelers cover.

Detroit Lions (+3) over Minnesota Vikings

Washington Redskins (+3) over New York Giants

Tennessee Titans (-6.5) over Houston Texans

The only three games that have absolutely no playoff implications, and those are always tough to pick. I can’t over-think them because you can never tell who really comes out to play when nothing matters, but I’ll give you my reasons for each game in a few words. Detroit :Adrian Peterson is out. Washington : Kirk Cousins has been pretty good and has covered in both starts. Tennessee : No team can possibly be more dysfunctional than Houston.

Green Bay Packers (-3) over Chicago Bears

Look who’s baaaaaaaack! Former MVP and successful mustache-wearer Aaron Rodgers will start at quarterback for Green Bay (7-7-1) for the first time since Week 9 when the Packers lost to….the Bears (8-7) of course. Talk about the perfect revenge storyline. Sure, he’ll be rusty initially, but he’s still a huge difference maker. Green Bay averaged a bit less than 22 points in his absence, but they put up 29 per game in his 8 starts. Not to mention another (more underrated) return, that of Randall Cobb, the explosive wideout who should help Rodgers ease back into action. I’ll take the Pack to win the NFC North.

Kansas City Chiefs (+9) over San Diego Chargers

Probably one you want to stay away from, because you don’t know how long (if at all) the Chiefs (11-4) starters will stay in the game (again, this game doesn’t really mean anything to them because they’re locked in the 5-seed). But that doesn’t mean the backups won’t play their hearts out to try to earn a bigger role. And as for San Diego (8-7), if either Baltimore or Miami wins in one of the early games, the Chargers won’t have a shot at the playoffs, so this game doesn’t necessarily mean anything for them either. I’ll just take the points and hope for the best.

Seattle Seahawks (-11.5) over St. Louis Rams

New Orleans Saints (-11) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Neither line scares me, because the Seahawks and Saints are among the best home teams in the league with a combined 13-1 record. Seattle (12-3) has outscored teams at home by an average of 17.5 points going 6-1, while New Orleans (10-5) is undefeated at the Superdome, outscoring opponents by 16 points. Both teams are playing for potential divisional titles, and neither the Rams (7-8) or Bucs (4-11) are too scary.

Oakland Raiders (+10.5) over Denver Broncos

At least one of these double-digit lines has to miss, and I’m thinking this one. All Peyton Manning has left to play for is the passing yards record (he needs 266 more) now that he’s set the touchdown record. I think Denver puts up a bunch early, seals it by halftime, and takes its foot off the gas. The Broncos (12-3) need to win to clinch home field throughout the playoffs, and they’ll probably have it wrapped up early, but I feel like Oakland (4-11) will put up some points late for a garbage cover.

New England Patriots (-7) over Buffalo Bills

After playing in 5 consecutive games decided by 4 points or less, New England (11-4) finally put it all together last week for one of its best performances of the year, crushing Baltimore 41-7. I think they keep that momentum going against an even weaker Bills team (6-9). The Pats still have a shot at home field throughout the playoffs, so they’ll definitely go for the win. And it should be an easy one.

San Francisco 49ers (-1) over Arizona Cardinals

Should be a really good game here. Like I mentioned earlier, San Francisco (11-4) could still win the NFC North with a win and a Seattle loss, while Arizona (10-5) needs a win and a Saints loss to make the playoffs. Both teams are playing well of late; San Fran is on a 5-game winning streak (for the second time this year), while the Cards have won 3 straight and 7 of 8 overall. But I can’t trust Carson Palmer to lead his team to a big win; his 21 interceptions are second-most in the NFL (only Eli Manning has thrown more picks). Plus, the Niners are 5-0-0 as away favorites this season. Sounds like a good trend to me.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) over Dallas Cowboys

Honestly, if this wasn’t the NFC East, this line would be at least double digits. The Cowboys (8-7) are so bad on defense it’s almost laughable, and despite what everyone wants to say about him, Tony Romo was really the only reason they were winning games. Dallas hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record this season. Meanwhile, the Eagles have no problem scoring to begin with, so the Cowboys junior varsity level defense shouldn’t be an issue for Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy and company. Aside from a bad loss to Minnesota a few weeks ago, Philly has been really strong in the past two months and deserves this division.

Last week : 5-9-1

Season : 41-53-5

Week 16 NFL Picks

Miami Dolphins (-2) over Buffalo Bills 

Miami (8-6) has a lot to play for, still in the race for the final wildcard spot; Buffalo (5-9) doesn’t.

Carolina Panthers (-3) over New Orleans Saints

The Saints (10-4) aren’t the same team away from the Superdome. I smell a touchdown win for the Panthers (10-4). This game should have been the Sunday Nighter.

Minnesota Vikings (+8.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

Minnesota (4-9-1) has kept games tight (or won) in the past month, while the Bengals (9-5) are coming off a stinker against the Steelers. Cincy prevails but doesn’t cover.

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) over Indianapolis Colts

Two consecutive strong outings from KC (11-3), and now they’re back home against a Colts team (9-5) that hasn’t been the same since losing Reggie Wayne.

Denver Broncos (-9.5) over Houston Texans

I can’t see two bad games in a row for Denver (11-3). And Houston (2-12) is terrible, already locked in to the #1 overall selection in next year’s draft. Just what Manning needs to put him back on track.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) over Tennessee Titans

Cleveland Browns (+2) over New York Jets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)  over St. Louis Rams

Toughest games to pick are the ones where neither team has anything to play for. I’ll just take the points in all three and hope for the best.

Washington Redskins (+3) over Dallas Cowboys

I just can’t take Tony Romo on the road giving points after everything we’ve seen this season. Kirk Cousins!

Detroit Lions (-8.5) over New York Giants

Statement game for the Lions. They’re still right there for the NFC North.

Seattle Seahawks (-9) over Arizona Cardinals

Seattle has been outstanding at home against good teams.

Green Bay Packers (-1) over Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pack keep it going to set up Aaron Rodgers return next week.

Oakland Raiders (+9.5) over San Diego Chargers

Too many points, too much respect for San Diego.

New England Patriots (+1) over Baltimore Ravens

The Pats are dogs two games in a row. I don’t care who’s injured, Tom Brady is still playing.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over Chicago Bears

I’m still not impressed by Chicago. Philly needs this one to get back on track.

Atlanta Falcons (+14.5) over San Francisco 49ers

This game will get out of hand quickly, but watch for the Falcons to get a couple garbage touchdowns to score a back-door cover.

Week 15 NFL Picks

Get out the ribbons, the parade floats and the marching band, I finally had a week over .500. Thanks to Josh McCown’s fantastic performance against the Cowboys, I finished with 8-7-1. Yup, it’s sad, but that’s my best week yet.

But hey, if an AFC team can grab the 2nd wilcard seed barely over .500 (which will happen), I should be happy with my latest performance. In AFC terms, I’m a playoff team.

Anyway, here’s to hoping I’ve turned a corner and am heading for brighter and bigger things. Or, most likely, this is the high point of my season.

Once again, picks are in caps, home team in italics.

Washington Redskins (+6) over Atlanta Falcons

This is a destiny pick. Kirk Cousins has only started one regular season game in his career: almost exactly one year ago (December 16th 2012) in a 38-21 win over the Cleveland Browns. He went 26 for 37 for 329 yards and two touchdowns. Not too shabby. Now he gets to go again, this time against another train-wreck of a team, the Falcons (3-10). Sure the Redskins (3-10) aren’t the same team they were last year, but you have to think he’ll be extra motivated, especially after Mike Shanahan said recently that Cousins could be traded for a first rounder.

Chicago Bears (-1) over Cleveland Browns

I had to hesitate here because I don’t like Cutler as much as McCown, so I’m almost scared to take Chicago (7-6) on the road. But then I remembered that they were playing Cleveland (4-9) who couldn’t even hold a 13 point lead with 2 minutes left in the game against the Patriots. The Bears can score, but more importantly, they still have a lot to play for; Cleveland doesn’t. Chicago should win.

Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) over Houston Texans

I’ll keep saying this again. Houston (2-11) keeps getting too much respect from Vegas. They don’t have a good quarterback, their defense is mediocre at best, and now they’ve just fired their coach. In some situations I’d go with the “fired-coach-team will be motivated”, but not when they’re 2-11 and haven’t been playing for anything relevant in almost two months. The Colts (8-5) are ready for a bounce back game after being crushed by the Bengals last week.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) Buffalo Bills

What am I missing here? I know this is Jacksonville, but the Bills (4-9) have no business being favored by 3 points on the road against anyone. The Jaguars (4-9) have actually been pretty good lately, winning three straight and 4 of their last 5. The Bills, on the other hand, have lost 5 of their last 6. Chad Henne has actually been a serviceable quarterback for the Jags; that offense has looked pretty good. I’ll gladly take the points.

New England Patriots (+2) over Miami Dolphins

Listen, the Patriots are hurting (again). Gronk is out for the season. Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins are ruled out.  Vince Wilfork and Jerrod Mayo have been out for weeks already. But this is New England, the model “next-man-up” franchise. Tom Brady doesn’t let these games slip, especially when the Patriots (10-3) have a chance to clinch the AFC East and jump over the Broncos for the top first seed in the AFC with a win. According to Pro Football Talk, the Pats have only been underdogs 7 times since 2010, going 6-1 against the spread in those games and winning outright in 5 of them. Against a mediocre Miami team (7-6)? They should be ok.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) over Minnesota Vikings

Both Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart are out for Minnesota (3-9-1), so there goes the running game, the only saving grace for the Vikings. Now they have to rely primarily on Matt Cassel (eeeewww). Meanwhile, Philadelphia (8-5) is rolling: they’ve won 5 in a row, putting up almost 32 points per game during that stretch. If you think Matt Cassel can go toe-to-toe with the Eagles in a shootout, you may need to see a doctor.

On a side note, I wish this game was outdoors, so we’d have the chance to see something like this.

So much fun.

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) over New York Giants

The Seahawks (11-2) can wrap up the division with a win here and basically lock up the top seed in the NFC. On one side, it’s Eli Manning, the league leader in interceptions (20). On the other side, it’s the league’s best defense overall (according to Football Outsiders). That’s not what you’d call a good matchup for the Giants. And now that New York (5-8) is officially eliminated from playoff contention, I can’t see them putting up much of a fight when Seattle inevitably takes a commanding lead.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) over San Francisco 49ers

Trap game! This could be one that the 49ers (9-4) overlook, but they shouldn’t. Since the start of November, the Bucs (4-9) have only lost to the Panthers and the Seahawks, the latter of which was an impressive overtime loss in Seattle (if overtime losses can be impressive). They’ve won 4 of their last 5 and have been much better with Mike Glennon under center. Glennon has a healthy 14-6 touchdown to interception ratio since the bye week, as well as a pretty good 61.6% completion percentage. I’ll go with the points, just because I think San Francisco won’t with this game handily.

Carolina Panthers (-10) over New York Jets

Carolina (9-4) finally ended its 8 game winning streak last Sunday against the Saints, but they’ve been impressive overall this year. There are two reasons why this line doesn’t scare me: (1) Geno Smith on the road, and (2) the Panthers have had several double digit wins this year, six to be exact. They’ve blown out the Giants (38-0), the Vikings (35-10), the Rams (30-15), the Bucs (31-13), the Falcons (34-10) and the Bucs again (27-6). In other words, they take care of weak opponents. The Jets (6-7) are a weak opponent, especially on the road, where they’re 1-5.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) over Oakland Raiders

There we go Kansas City. A dominating 45-10 win in the snow in Washington against (granted) a bad team reaffirmed the Chiefs relevance in the AFC. And after the Broncos were upset by the Chargers on Thursday, the AFC West is not quite locked up just yet. With a win here, Kansas City (10-3) moves into a tie with Denver for the division lead. The Broncos have the tiebreaker, but with 2 games left after, it’s not completely over. Speaking of over, the Raiders (4-9) were never really in the conversation this year and are once again playing for the draft. Just lose, baby.

St. Louis Rams (+6) over New Orleans Saints

I have a note on my Score Mobile App telling me that the Saints have only scored 18.8 points per game on the road this year (they average 26.4 ppg overall). New Orleans (10-3) is 3-3 on the road, while St. Louis (5-8) is 3-3 at home. The Saints might be able to squeak out a win, but I think they’ll have trouble getting their offense together for a while against a decent Rams defense. I see a bad performance by New Orleans overcome by a game-winning drive by Brees, but I think it’ll be within the 6 points.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) over Tennessee Titans

Hey look, the Cardinals (8-5) are still in the playoff race in mid-December! They’re just one game back of the wildcard after winning 4 of 5. I think they’re the sneaky good team of the year, anchored by a very strong defensive unit. If only you could trust Carson Palmer. But I guess you could say the same thing about Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Titans (5-8) have lost 4 of 5 with Fitzpatrick and are only 2-4 at home. Say goodbye to Tennessee’s slim playoff hopes.

Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) over Green Bay Packers

Get in your jokes about the Cowboys (7-6) defense now before I tell you that they’ve won 5 of 6 at home this year, outscoring opponents by an average of almost 9 points. See? Trends in your face. I said it last week, but it bears repeating: the Packers (6-6-1) aren’t (even close to) the same team with Aaron Rodgers (who’s been ruled out again this week). I think we’ll see the final nail on the coffin for Green Bay’s season this week.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Let’s start out by saying that this is a weak Sunday night game (especially in flex times), but the entire week is so-so as far as “sexy” matchups are concerned (especially compared to last week). That being said, these AFC North divisional games are always good battles and generally close, usually right around a field goal. I think the Bengals (9-4), who can clinch a playoff spot today, will come out strong and overpower the Steelers (5-8). Could very well be a field goal game, but with the line under 3, I’ll take Cincy.

Can I just take a moment to point out the amazing sideline karma that was Antonio Brown’s toe stepping out of bounds in that crazy ending against Miami, especially after what Mike Tomlin did the week before? Football gods are the best.

Bye-bye Pittsburgh playoff hopes. Missed it by that much.

Detroit Lions (-6) over Baltimore Ravens

It’s certainly been an up-and-down season for the Lions (7-6). They look fantastic at times, horrible at other times. But luckily for them, they’re playing a Ravens team (7-6) who’s been just as inconsistent. And where Baltimore has most trouble is on the road (1-5). Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson should have a big game against a mediocre Ravens defense. I’ll take the Lions now assuming Reggie Bush plays, but if he doesn’t, it might be too big of a line. We’ll see.

Enjoy the games.

Last week: 8-7-1

Season: 30-37-4

NHL and Rogers : The Mega-Deal

Every morning when I wake up, the first thing I do is check my phone. It’s next to my bed, charging, and I just want to make sure I’m not missing anything before I get up and get my day going.

About two weeks ago, I did exactly that. Woke up, checked my phone, looked at Twitter. And then I saw this.

Rogers Communications & @NHL announce 12-yr national broadcast/multimedia agreement on all platforms in all languages http://t.co/PVEixclRv9

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) November 26, 2013

My first emotions were, in order, shock, disbelief, and curiosity. For the rest of that day, that’s all I could think about. I watched the press conference on TV, read as many articles as I could, listened to the radio; the whole thing shook me and I needed to know everything I could. Since then, I’ve had time to calm down and think everything through. So now I can give you my thoughts on the deal, void from initial (not necessarily rational) emotion.

The deal

By now, I figure you already know the basics, so I won’t spend too long on the details. And if you want the full breakdown, there’s a good summary here on NHL.com.

So Rogers pays the NHL 5.2 billion over the next 12 years to broadcast all national games in Canada, whether they be Canadian teams or American teams playing. Rogers will broadcast national games on Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday without blackouts. If you want to watch the Canucks from Charlottetown or the Sens from Whistler, you’re more than welcome to do so.

CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada is still involved for the next 4 years, but really only as Sportsnet’s puppet; Rogers picks the game it wants to show on CBC while getting all the revenue and choosing all the editorial content, be it style, production or talent. In other words, CBC’s usefulness has been narrowed to its airwaves; Hockey Night in Canada (the brand) still survives because Rogers can use it for any of its games on Saturday night (for the next 4 years anyway). But CBC doesn’t get to make any decisions on the look or feel of its broadcast.

As for TSN, the network that has aired most national games for the past 11 years is completely shut out of the deal. All its has left is its regional deals with the Leafs, Jets and Habs; those can’t be shown nationally. The only possible way TSN could get some national games over the next 12 years is if it buys some rights from Rogers, which is very unlikely given the fierce competition between the two.

The French language rights go to TVA. Just like TSN is shut out from the deal, its sister station RDS is also shut out. Again, all RDS has left is its regional deal with the Canadiens.

Now, it looks like the NHL was partial to Rogers not only for the money involved, but also for the edge in digital technology that Rogers has over Bell. Apparently, the money offered by TSN was very close to that offered by Rogers, close enough that you’d think the NHL would’ve gone back to TSN one last time for a counter offer. (This according to Radio-Canada blogger Martin Leclerc). But the league chose not to. I can’t pretend to know what Gary Bettman was thinking, but obviously it wasn’t just about money.

What this means for Rogers 

Simply put, it’s a game-changer. This is a huge deal for Sportsnet because it now becomes (almost by default) the number one sports network in Canada. You can be loyal to TSN all you want, but if you plan to watch hockey, you’ll need to flip over to Sportsnet. All eyes will be on it for the next 12 years. Rogers will be able to show a bunch of games across all the channels it now controls (Sportsnet East, Ontario, West, Pacific, One, 360, CityTV, CBC, TVA). Rogers released a sample of what that might look like on a Saturday.

That’s 10 different games broadcast throughout the day. Plus, it seems like there’ll be a new channel (Sportsnet NHL on this grid) that “ice surfs” through all the games, kind of like the RedZone channel for the NFL (we can hope).

That’s a lot of hockey. More than anyone has ever had access to. But that means Rogers needs to step up its game. I think it’s no secret that TSN has done an outsanding job since 2002 as the national rights holder. Sportsnet doesn’t have a poor product, but in comparison, it’s not as strong. But that could change now that all the resources have been (and will continue to be) invested in its hockey broadcasts. That means hiring new talent (possibly from TSN), improving the quality of the studio shows (both visually and editorially) and innovating on the actual play-by-play.

What it means for CBC

This is a killer. Hockey Night in Canada is now essentially Sportsnet’s puppet. CBC doesn’t get any say on talent, look or style of Hockey Night; Rogers makes all those decisions. Because it’s funded by public money (and the government keeps trimming their budget), CBC couldn’t compete with Rogers financially, simply didn’t have that wherewithal. But because Hockey Night in Canada is such an important institution in Canadian culture, Rogers decided to keep the brand alive (for at least 4 more years). Rogers gets all the revenue from ads run on CBC, but is responsible for all costs involved with putting the broadcasts to air.

As for Hockey Night (the show), chances are some (if not most) personalities will be kept for the time being. Don Cherry will be fine; if he wants work, he’ll have some in my opinion. Too many people want to hear what he has to say, whether they like him or not. For me, the biggest issue is what they do with the production itself. If TSN is talent and innovation, CBC is technical supremacy. Their opening montages are in a class by themselves.

Hopefully this doesn’t change. If I’m Rogers, I try to keep it status quo as much as possible for now. Hockey Night in Canada is sacred in this country, and because Rogers gets all the revenue, they may as well just keep it going anyway.

What it means for TSN

It hurts. There’s no doubt that Rogers takes a big step on TSN here with this deal. More eyes will be on Sportsnet most nights because they’ll be watching hockey.

It’s going to be interesting to find out how many resources TSN invests in hockey now that they’re no longer the rights-holder. The NHL will remain an important part of its foundation (it needs to for any Canadian network to thrive).

Bob McKenzie will remain an insider; he’s on his retirement contract now and he’s still an outstanding professional. At over 600,000 followers on Twitter, he has over 4 times more followers on than Sportsnet’s biggest hockey personality, Nick Kypreos. In fact, I thought it was incredibly ironic yet totally fitting that it was actually McKenzie who broke the deal on Twitter the night before.

TSN's national rights package for NHL games expires at end of this season and isn't being renewed. NHL to announce new CBC-Rogers deal Tues.

— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) November 26, 2013

Of course he’d break the deal, that’s why he’s the go-to-guy. There ain’t no two ways about it.

But what about guys like James Duthie, Darren Dreger, Gord Miller, or Ray Ferraro? They’re talented personalities that could jump ship to Rogers or even NBC in the States if they want to.

As for its programming, you’d have to think that TSN goes after regional NHL deals, junior hockey, more basketball…basically everything they can get their hands on. You just saw Bell extend its agreement with the NFL to broadcast more games than ever starting in 2014.

TSN knows that live programming still trumps everything, and now that it doesn’t have hockey, it’ll have a hard time drawing numbers if all it show is darts or poker.

The deal hurts TSN, no doubt, but it’s far from the end of the network. TSN will be ok. And in 12 years, Canada’s Sports Leader will be right back in line to bid for the next deal.

What it means for the NHL

If Rogers is the big winner in this deal, the NHL is a close second. Gary Bettman set out to get a landmark deal for the owners, and he got just that. We’re talking an average of 14.4 million dollars per team per year, more than 10 times as much as teams receive per year in the current deal with TSN. Canadian teams get a bit more than American teams in the deal for obvious reasons, but it’s still a resounding win for the entire league.

Speaking of Canadian teams, we’re going to be hearing even more about expansion or relocation to Canada now that this deal has been completed. The importance of hockey (and the market potential even in smaller cities) is undeniable with this latest deal; there are now 5.2 billion reasons why a prospective owner would want a team in Canada, and if you’re the NHL, it’s hard to ignore.

Markham? Quebec City? Why not both.

What it means for the hockey fan

Depending on who you ask, this is bittersweet. On one side, it’s tough to argue with more hockey. You now get Wednesdays, Saturdays and Sundays of national broadcasts, with choices abound on several channels (and no regional blackouts on those days).

But, like I said earlier, this might spell the end (eventually) for CBC, and for now its the end of hockey on TSN (for 12 years anyway). For my money, TSN and CBC had the best broadcasts, while Sportsnet was a few steps behind. It’s not to say that Rogers can’t climb to the level of TSN or CBC, but it’ll take time. And as a fan, I’m a little apprehensive by the notion of Sportsnet broadcasting all the games. I’m sure they’ll figure it out eventually, but I am going to miss TSN.

And what about money? We haven’t heard anything yet from Rogers, but this could mean inflated cable bills, or worse, pay-per-view hockey. And will Bell or Shaw subscribers be able to get as many games as Rogers users? The monopoly here frightens me a bit. The whole dynamic of how this affects cable customers is definitely something to closely survey as we move forward.

What it means for broadcasters

I don’t want to get too cheesy here, but I thought I had to point this out; as an aspiring broadcaster, I can’t help but feel that all of this has validated the field I’m working to get into. The fact that so many people could be affected emotionally or psychologically (to any degree) shows the importance of the industry. The fact that, as a fan, we might miss guys like James Duthie or Gord Miller or Bob McKenzie goes to justify how important these personalities can be to us, and how deep of an impact they can have on our everyday lives.

In the end, we’re going to watch the games one way or another. The games won’t change just because they’re broadcast by a different network. A Leafs-Habs game is still a Leafs-Habs game. But that doesn’t mean we’ll digest it or appreciate it in the same way. And that says a lot for the people that put effort into delivering such a good product.

Week 14 NFL Picks

So thanks to New Orleans laying an egg in Seattle on Monday night, I still haven’t hit a week over .500 yet. This is getting bad. Logically, the way Vegas makes its spreads, a gambler should be right around .500 over the long haul (and lose money because the odds aren’t exactly even, they’re obviously tilted towards the house).

So I’m calling this a streak of really bad luck. And if you feel like profiting off of my bad luck, just go ahead and go against all of my picks. You should be fine.

Once again, because of the overall terrible nature of these picks, reader discretion is advised. (Home team in italics).

Minnesota Vikings (+6) over Baltimore Ravens

The Vikings (3-8-1) are certainly not a powerhouse, but they’ve been able to keep games close lately, extending their last two matchups into overtime. The way Adrian Peterson is running the ball (and the way Ray Rice isn’t), it’ll be hard for the Ravens (6-6) to run away with this one. You saw them let the Steelers back in the game on Thanksgiving even though the game should’ve been put to bed after halftime. I’ll take the points.

New England Patriots (-10) over Cleveland Browns

So it’s Josh Gordon against New England basically. And if there’s one thing we know about Belichik, it’s that he likes to take out the other team’s best weapon and let them beat you another way. Unfortunately, the Browns (4-8) don’t have another way. If Jacksonville can put up 32 against Cleveland in a comeback win, imagine what Tom Brady can do. No to mention that the Patriots (9-3) defense is much better than the Jaguars’.

Oakland Raiders (+3) over New York Jets

You can’t win in the NFL without a mediocre (at worst) QB, and the Jets (5-7) don’t have that right now. They’ve lost three in a row, putting up a total of 20 points in that time. Eeesh. It’s not like the Raiders (4-8) are going to blow them out of the water, because they’ve lost 4 of 5, but getting 3 points from the Jets at this point seems too good to ignore (New York hasn’t scored more than 3 points in each of the past to games). I’ll take those points.

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) over Indianapolis Colts

On paper, this looks like a great matchup, one that could very well decide which one of these teams gets the 3rd seed in the AFC and which one gets the 4th seed. But Indy (8-4) hasn’t been the same team ever since Reggie Wayne went down. Cincy (8-4), on the other hand, is undefeated at home, where they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 16.4 points. Sure, some of that is inflated by a 40-point win over the Jets, but this is a team that held the Pats to 6 points. I think they’ll have another strong defensive outing against the suddenly shaky Colts.

Detroit Lions (+3) over Philadelphia Eagles

Similar to the Bengals-Colts matchup, this could be the deciding matchup for the 3rd and 4th seeds in the NFC. The Eagles (7-5) have been outstanding since Nick Foles took over under center, while the Lions (7-5) finally had their first true statement game in a 40-10 win over Green Bay on Thanksgiving. Both offenses are strong, both defenses can be scored on. If the weather wasn’t an issue here, you’d take the over in a hurry. But the way it’s playing out, it could be more of a defensive struggle than you’d expect. Either way, I’ll go NBA-style and take the team (Detroit) with the best player on the field (Calvin Johnson). If it comes down to a game-winning drive, you can certainly trust him.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) over Miami Dolphins

These teams are trending in opposite directions. Despite a win over the (lowly) Jets last week, Miami (5-7) has only won 2 of 9 after starting the season 3-0. The Steelers (5-7), on the other hand, have won 5 of 7 after starting the year 0-5. Pittsburgh is 3-2 at home this year despite their poor record. They still have a decent shot at the 6th seed, so they’ll be desperate to get this one. And plus, they always put their right foot forward.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) over Washington Redskins

This has to be a statement game for KC (9-3). They’ve put up three straight losses now, but during that time they’ve scored 73 points, or an average of 27.7 per game. That probably won’t change against a bad Washington defense. The issue with the Chiefs, strangely, has been their defense, which started the year allowing no more than 17 points in 9 straight wins. But Washington (3-9) isn’t as good offensively as San Diego and certainly not as good as Denver. I expect a bounce back game for the Chiefs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) over Buffalo Bills

Buffalo (4-8) is officially horrible after losing to Atlanta in overtime last week in a game they needed (and should’ve had) but gave away. Tampa Bay (3-9), is officially better than its record shows. In the past 5 weeks, they’ve won 3 games (including games against Miami and Detroit, decent NFL teams) and lost in overtime on the road to Seattle. It’s too late now, but you’d have to think that their record would be much closer to .500 had the Bucs started Mike Glennon under center in Week 1.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) over Green Bay Packers

Atlanta (3-9) really shouldn’t want to win here, but they shouldn’t have against Buffalo last week either, and we saw how that went. They can’t even tank a season properly. And their opponent this week is not the same without its star quarterback. In 8 weeks with Aaron Rodgers, the Pack were 5-2 and scored 29 points per game. Since his injury against the Bears in Week 9, they’re 0-3-1 and have scored 15.5 points per game. In other words, Aaron Rodgers is worth two touchdowns by himself, basically. In case you haven’t realized yet, Rodgers is not playing this week. Atlanta’s got this.

Tennessee Titants (+12.5) over Denver Broncos

Blah blah Peyton Manning in cold weather blah blah. Ok, I’m done with that, now moving on. The Titans (5-7) have allowed the least touchdown passes this season (8). And they’ve only been outscored by double digits once this year. I think the Broncos (10-2) will have more trouble scoring than they’d expect, and this game will turn into more of a running game battle, which means that it won’t be as high scoring as you’d expect, which also means that Denver won’t run away with it. Take the points.

Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) over St. Louis Rams

The Rams kryptonite is good defense (maybe because Kellen Clemens is QB?). In the last 6 weeks, they’ve beaten  blown out Chicago and Indianapolis, but lost to Tennessee, Seattle, Carolina and San Francisco. I’ve already talked about the Titans defense, and it’s no secret that the Seahawks, Panthers and 49ers are great on that side of the ball too. According to Football Outsiders, Seattle, Carolina and San Francisco rank 1st, 2nd, and 6th respectively in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, advanced metrics that measure team efficiency). Arizona is 3rd. I’ll take the Cards defense against Kellen Clemens.

New York Giants (+3.5) over San Diego Chargers 

The Chargers (5-7) are tough to figure out. They’ll score 41 against KC on the road, but then only 10 at home against the Bengals. They’re Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Mediocre. I guess this is really just a gut pick for me. The Giants (5-7) are 5-1 since their abysmal start, and a lot of that is due to Andre Brown’s play in the backfield. I honestly can’t trust either of these teams, but since I’m getting more than a field goal, I’ll take the Giants.

San Francisco 49ers (-3) over Seattle Seahawks

Great game and great line. Remember, Seattle (11-1) isn’t the same team on the road. They’ve only lost one of 6 away from Seattle, but they’ve also only really beaten Atlanta handily; the rest were nail-biters. Plus, the Seahawks haven’t won in their last 4 trips to San Francisco. This game is more important to the Niners (8-4) than it is to Seattle; San Fran is not a lock to make the playoffs yet. I smell a push here, but I’ll go with the team that I think wins the game.

New Orleans Saints (-3) over Carolina Panthers

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Drew Brees dominating at home on primetime. He’s 10-0 in his last 10 starts at the Superdome in primetime, during which he’s thrown 33 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions. The Saints (9-3) will be looking for redemption after their horrible performance on Monday night, and I think we’ll see that happen. Carolina (9-3) has been great during its 8-game winning streak, but Drew Brees on Sunday night is another beast altogether. Great game either way.

Chicago Bears (+1) over Dallas Cowboys

Ok, I’m going to hit a Bears line eventually. This time they’re a home dog against a Dallas (7-5) team that doesn’t necessarily inspire confidence. I can’t find any reason to take Tony Romo on the road giving a point. And on the Bears (6-6) side of things, Josh McCown has done very well in place of Jay Cutler. Nothing scares me about the Cowboys defense. A big game for both teams’ playoff hopes, but I’ll go with the home team.

Last week : 7-8-1

Season : 22-30-3