Well, since it’s Thanksgiving today in the States, I thought I’d hustle to get this post out so I wouldn’t miss any games. Usually I wait until Friday or the weekend because I can almost excuse missing the (usually lame) Thursday Nighter, but missing 3 games was inexcusable.
Although, quite honestly, I’d probably do myself a favour by not doing this because it hasn’t been great so far. Luckily for myself, I have no plans to become a bookie in Vegas anytime soon. You know how movies and TV shows have disclaimers to warn viewers of possible disturbing images? I think I’m going to start doing that. Basically, if you want to make money, just go against all of my picks. You should be fine.
And if you’re not in the gambling mood, just enjoy a great week of football with no byes and THE TOP TWO TEAMS IN BOTH THE AFC AND NFC FACING EACH OTHER. Has that ever happened this late in the regular season before? I have no clue, but it’s pretty spectacular.
So with Turkey, great conference tilts and even a game in Toronto on the menu this weekend, here are the American-Thanksgiving-Day picks. (Home team in italics). Reader discretion is advised.
Detroit Lions (-6.5) over Green Bay Packers
Ah, this would have been such a great Thanksgiving game if Rodgers weren’t injured. But because he is, I’m scared it won’t be that close. Matt Flynn might (and I use that word carefully) be better than Scott Tolzien, but the Packers (5-5-1) still only managed a tie against the lowly Vikings (who they crushed earlier in the season with Rodgers in the game). Detroit (6-5) hasn’t been impressive either recently, but this game should get them going again. Green Bay’s defense isn’t good, and apparently this guy Calvin Johnson is. I think a touchdown win for the Lions is well within reason.
Oakland Raiders (+7.5) over Dallas Cowboys
Doesn’t this set up to be a huge letdown game for Dallas (6-5)? Remember, the Cowboys haven’t won two in a row this year, and every time you feel like you can trust them, they let you down. They edged out a pretty big win in the Meadowlands, and now they go home to face a mediocre Oakland team (4-7) with a chance to take back the NFC East lead.
But Oakland has been competitive in the past 3 weeks, and I think they’ll stay in this game. Again, it just sounds too perfect for Dallas, and that’s usually not a good thing. They do things like this sometimes.
Batlimore Ravens (-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers
Good line here. I don’t really like one team more than the other, but given that it’s on the road, the Ravens are 3-point favorites. Pittsburgh (5-6) has won 3 in a row and is back in the playoff picture, but they’re only 2-4 on the road, while Baltimore (5-6) has been a solid 4-1 at home this year. The Ravens have won by at least 3 in all of their home wins; I’m seeing nothing less than a push here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8) over Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay (3-8) has actually been impressive in the past month. Don’t look now, but the Bucs have won three straight (against Miami, Atlanta and Detroit) after losing their first eight. The week before that, they had a pretty good showing in Seattle before ultimately losing in overtime. And sure, the Panthers (8-3) are on a 7-game winning streak, but their last 3 wins have been by a combine 9 points. I don’t see a blowout here.
Cleveland Browns (-7) over Jacksonville Jaguars
The last time I thought the Browns had packed in their season (after starting 0-2 and trading Trent Richardson), they went on a three-game winning streak. For that reason, I can’t completely give up on Cleveland despite what the eye-test has told me in the past few weeks. Because, as crazy as it sounds, at 4-7 they’re still not out of the AFC wildcard race. The Jaguars (2-9) have been better lately but still throw in a bad game every couple of weeks, and after beating the Texans in Week 12, they’re due for a stinker here.
Indianapolis Colts (-4) over Tennessee Titans
Look, I know Indy (7-4) hasn’t been good for a while now (really since losing Reggie Wayne), but you’ve got to think they put their foot down here at home against Tennessee (5-6) led by backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (who has been decent as a replacement for Jake Locker). The 2-seed is still very much in play for the Colts if they turn it on down the stretch, and I can’t see them letting this one slide.
Chicago Bears (+1) over Minnesota Vikings
This is the second consecutive week that the division-leading Bears (6-5) have been underdogs to a weaker opponent. Last week it was the Rams, this week it’s the Vikings (2-8-1). Of course, last week the Bears had their rear ends handed to them by St. Louis, but two weeks in a row? Losing Jay Cutler is not nearly as detrimental to Chicago as, for example, Aaron Rodgers is to Green Bay. Josh McCown has been fine taking over for Cutler. This isn’t happening two weeks in a row. Give me Daaaaaaa Bears.
New York Jets (-2) over Miami Dolphins
The Jets (5-6) are 4-1 at home, while the Dolphins (5-6) are 2-3 on the road. It seems simplistic, because it is. Geno Smith on the road? Terrible. Geno Smith at home? Decent enough to win. This just feels like a bad matchup for Miami. New York’s defense is legit; Miami’s offensive line isn’t.
Arizona Cardinals (+3) over Philadelphia Eagles
This should be a good one. Both teams have turned it around after so-so starts and are on pretty good winning streaks. That being said, it’s more been a case of both of them taking advantage of their weaker opponents. For Arizona (7-4), it’s been Atlanta, Houston, Jacksonville and Indianapolis (who never really showed up last week), while Philadelphia (6-5) beat Oakland, Green Bay (without Rodgers) and Washington is succession. It’ll be interesting to see who falters against a decent opponent.
The biggest issue here for the Eagles is that they’ve been so reliant on that offense, but Arizona’s defense has been among the best this year. Philly won’t have the same success throwing the ball as it did against the Raiders, Packers or Redskins. Plus, kind of like in the Dallas game, you should always be worried about an NFC East team, especially when you think they’re feeling good about themselves.
Denver Broncos (-4.5) over Kansas City Chiefs
Did you see what Philip Rivers did to Kansas City (9-2) last week? This defense is not the same we saw for the first few weeks, probably because they’ve started playing good teams now. Plus, Peyton and the Broncos (9-2) will be fired up after they pooped the bed in New England in the second half/overtime of the Sunday Nighter. I don’t see Denver winning by any less than 7 points, even if the game is in Arrowhead. And this is in no way my best effort to jinx the Broncos. (Hey, if I can’t get these right, I may as well use my powers for good).
Before I move on, I just want to say something quick. It’s almost like this game has lost hype somehow after these teams played two weeks ago. But wait, these are still the top two teams in the AFC facing off. And they’re in the same division! Still a massive tilt. Should be fantastic. OHHH YEAAAAAAAAH!
New England Patriots (-7.5) over Houston Texans
I’m going to keep picking agaisnt Houston (2-9) as long as Vegas keeps giving them even the slightest respect. I thought this line would be at least double digits, but apparently someone still seems something (I have no idea what) in the Texans. This is a team THAT PUT UP 6 POINTS AGAINST JACKSONVILLE AT HOME LAST WEEK. That’s it. New England (8-3) is going to run all over them. The Pats are starting to get healthy, and played well against Denver (besides the fumbles that killed their first half). Should be double digits easily.
Buffalo Bills (-3) over Atlanta Falcons
This game really scares me for Buffalo because the Bills usually don’t come out swinging for these Toronto games. They’ve only won one of five at Rogers Centre, against the then (and again now) brutal Washington Redskins in 2011. That being said, I think Atlanta (2-9) falls in that same category. And while the Falcons don’t have much to play for anymore (besides a higher draft pick), the Bills are still in the thick of that craptastic AFC wildcard race.
That’s right. The 4-7 Bills are the ones looking to make a playoff push against the lowly Falcons this Sunday in Toronto. I doubt anyone was selling it that way when they first put it on the schedule.
San Francisco 49ers (-8) over St. Louis Rams
Are the Rams good maybe? You’d have thought that losing Sam Bradford for the season (and, more importantly, replacing him with Kellen Clemens) would spell the end for St. Louis, but not quite. They’ve blown out the Colts and Bears in back-to-back games, and now they play the 49ers who haven’t really been as good as you could have hoped, especially lately.
But hang on. St. Louis has been carried by running back Zac Stacy, and now he looks questionable at best for this game. It’s one thing for Kellen Clemens to hand the ball off and win, it’s another for him to throw it and win. This is not the Colts or Bears defense, this is the 49ers defense, a whole ‘nother beast. I think we see a statement game from San Fran.
Cincinnati Bengals (+1) over San Diego Chargers
This is what the Chargers have done after a win this year : loss to Tennessee (Week 3), loss to Oakland (Week 5), win against Jacksonville (only back-to back, Week 6), three straight losses to Washington, Denver and Miami (Weeks 9-11). Aside from beating the Jags (who were still winless and hopeless at the time), San Diego (5-6) hasn’t played well after a win. Cincinnati (7-4) isn’t a walkover. I’ll take the Bengals defense over the Chargers offense in this one.
New York Giants (-1) over Washington Redskins
This is a sad indictment for the Giants (4-7) to only be favored by one against the Redskins (3-8). Don’t let their similar records fool you; New York had won four in a row before losing to Dallas on Sunday, while Washington has lost 4 of 5. That Redskins offense has been pretty bad too. It’s just a real messy situation in D.C. right now with the obvious bad vibes between RGIII, his coaches and his teammates. I’m not getting anywhere close to that situation.
New Orleans Saints (+5) over Seattle Seahawks
Fantastic Monday Night game, a possible NFC Conference Final, probably the best ESPN has gotten all year. It’s going to be loud in Seattle, and it’s going to be fun. There isn’t a whole lot to say about these two teams besides the fact that they’re obviously very good. It’s Seattle’s running attack against New Orleans’ passing attack.
In years past, I would have definitely taken the Seahawks (10-1) at home giving only 5 points, but this Saints (9-2) team can play decent defense too, so they won’t be out of it. And you know how quickly Brees and the gang can strike on offense. I think we’ll see a field goal here, and I actually think New Orleans can win it. Either way I think 5 is too much.
Last week : 4-9-0
Season : 15-22-2
FANTASTIC FORE 